Guten Tag.

The NFL kicks off early this morning with the Giants taking on the Panthers in Munich, Germany at 9:30am ET. If you weren’t aware of that because you don’t even consider the Giants and Panthers as NFL teams, we don’t blame you.

But there are real NFL games going on today, so we’re here with the insight you need to make the right start/sit decisions to get a much needed win.

INJURY REPORT 🚑

Dak Likely Done for the Year

Cowboys QB Dak Prescott is expected to undergo surgery on his injured hamstring, which would put him out for the rest of the season. He’s reportedly seeing one more specialist before making a final decision, but all signs point toward Cooper Rush being under center for the rest of the year in Big D.

This is obviously a blow for managers with Dak, but CeeDee Lamb should take a hit, too. He did well with Rush back in 2022, but his TD-upside is sure to be limited.

Similarly, Saints WR Chris Olave (concussion) is being placed on IR and could stay there for the rest of the season. The Saints are trash and Olave’s now had five concussions in his career, so this seems like the best decision for his future.

Meanwhile, here’s how some other big names around the league are trending…

👍 Expected to play:

• Christian McCaffrey

• Deebo Samuel

• Nico Collins

• Tank Dell

• Tyreek Hill

• Drake London

• Brian Thomas Jr.

• Gus Edwards

• Tyler Conklin

👎 Not expected to play:

• Trevor Lawrence

• Amari Cooper

🤷‍♂️ Gametime decision:

• Jonathon Brooks

• Jalen McMillan

SPONSOR

STARTS & SITS 🧐

Quarterback

✅ Start ‘Em:

Brock Purdy @ TB: The Bucs have allowed the 2nd most fantasy points to opposing QBs this season and have been lit up lately by Kirk Cousins twice (42.4 points in Week 5 and 36.6 in Week 8), Lamar Jackson (44.4 in Week 7) and Patrick Mahomes (30.5 in Week 9), per CBS Sports’ Jamey Eisenberg. It doesn’t hurt that CMC, Deebo, and Jauan Jennings are all expected to play, too.

Daniel Jones @ CAR: Jones is coming off a QB5 performance against Washington last week, where he completed 20-of-25 passes for 174 yards, while adding 54 rushing yards and a score on the ground, too. He’ll look to build off that against Carolina, who have allowed the 4th-most fantasy points to opposing QBs, per FantasyPros’ Dennis Sosic.

Sam Darnold @ JAX: The Jags have allowed the most fantasy points to QBs this season. The only one who didn’t finish in the top 12 against them was Jordan Love, who suffered an injury in the contest, per PFF’s Nathan Jahnke.

❌ Sit ‘Em:

Kyler Murray vs NYJ: Murray’s average of 16.7 points per game has fallen to 14.4 against teams that rank inside the top 10 in EPA per dropback allowed (the Jets rank 9th), per NBC Sports’ Kyle Dvorchak.

Baker Mayfield vs SF: Mayfield’s passing yards per attempt has slipped from 7.9 in Weeks 1-7 to 6.5 over his last two games without Mike Evans. Meanwhile, San Fran is allowing the 8th-fewest passing fantasy points per game (12.4), per Fantasy Points’ Graham Barfield.

Aaron Rodgers @ ARI: After a slow start, the Cardinals pass D has made strides lately. In its last three games, Arizona has held Justin Herbert, Tua Tagovailoa and Caleb Williams to fewer than 15 fantasy points, per SI’s Michael Fabiano. Look elsewhere for your streamer this week.

Running Back

✅ Start ‘Em:

Tyrone Tracy Jr. @ CAR: He's fully taken over as the starting RB for the Giants, with at least 16 carries in four of his past five games. In three of those outings, Tracy has scored at least 14 PPR points. Meanwhile, Carolina has allowed the most points in the league to opposing RBs, with 13 RBs scoring at least 12.1 PPR points against them, including six with at least 20 PPR points, per Jamey Eisenberg.

Chuba Hubbard vs NYG: Even if Jonathon Brooks makes his NFL debut, don’t expect him to get a ton of work out of the gate. Hubbard has finished as a top-24 back in seven of the last eight weeks and will now go up against a New York front seven that has allowed a top-20 fantasy RB in five straight weeks, per RotoBaller’s Joey Pollizze.

D’Andre Swift vs NE: The Patriots have allowed the 5th-most fantasy points to RBs this year, with backs averaging 143.5 rushing yards against them over the last four games. Also, the Bears are six-point favorites, and Swift has averaged 108.6 yards from scrimmage and nearly a TD per game during wins this season, per Yahoo’s Dalton Del Don. Look for him to capitalize on a positive game script.

❌ Sit ‘Em:

Travis Etienne vs MIN: The Vikings have allowed the 3rd fewest yards per carry this season, and the Jags backfield is far too crowded to find value even if a positive matchup:

Najee Harris @ WAS: Harris ran a route on 50% of his team’s dropbacks and had a 13% target share through five weeks. But those numbers are down to 35% and 8% over his past three appearances, all of which Jaylen Warren has been active for, per Kyle Dvorchak. As three-point dogs to the juggernaut Commanders, Harris’s two-down role isn’t going to cut it.

Javonte Williams @ KC: HC Sean Payton said that he expects to use Audric Estime more down the stretch, and since Williams is 32nd among RBs in team carry share (41.5%), any potential volume loss will hurt him severely. This is also a horrific matchup, as the Chiefs allow a league-low 50.9 yards per game on the ground, per Graham Barfield.

Wide Receiver

✅ Start ‘Em:

George Pickens @ WAS: Although the Commanders D has improved lately, Pickens’ full season’s pace over two games with Russell Wilson is 1,572 receiving yards and eight TDs. He has already drawn nearly as many targets inside the 10-yard line (three) from Wilson as he did over the first six games (four), per Dalton Del Don.

Khalil Shakir @ IND: Shakir has had at least six catches in three straight games and should continue to see volume with Keon Coleman out and Amari Cooper questionable. Meanwhile, the Colts have allowed nine TDs to WRs this season, per Dennis Sosic.

Josh Downs vs BUF: With Flacco starting, Downs has been the clear WR1 for Indy with a 27.3% target share, 2.38 YPRR, and a 33.8% first-read share. Meanwhile, Buffalo has allowed the 8th-most receiving yards per game to slot receivers, while ranking 15th in fantasy points allowed to the position per game, per FantasyPros’ Derek Brown.

❌ Sit ‘Em:

DeAndre Hopkins vs DEN: Hopkins tore up a soft Tampa Bay secondary last week, but today he’ll be matched up against Patrick Surtain II. Surtain should be able to frustrate Hopkins, much like he did with DK Metcalf (5.9 PPR points), George Pickens (4.9 PPR points), Mike Evans (3.7 PPR points) and Garrett Wilson (9.1 PPR points) earlier this season, per Jamey Eisenberg.

Marvin Harrison Jr. vs NYJ: This looks like another down week for MHJ against a secondary that has held perimeter WRs to the 9th-fewest receiving yards per game and the 2nd-fewest fantasy points per game, per Derek Brown.

D.J. Moore vs NE: “Moore has less than 35 receiving yards in four of his past five games and only two games all season with 60-plus receiving yards. In fact, if you remove his 27-point game in Week 5, Moore would be just WR53 on the season in points per game (9.5). This week Moore will likely see shadow coverage from Christian Gonzalez, who has allowed just one receiver all season – DK Metcalf – to score 15-plus fantasy points on him … and that was due to a busted coverage on a 56-yard touchdown pass.” — NBC Sports’ Matthew Berry

Tight End

✅ Start ‘Em:

Cade Otton vs SF: Over the last two weeks without Evans and Godwin, Otton has 21 targets (30.4% first-read target share) for 17/158/3 receiving (25.4 FPG), per Graham Barfield. He’s a must-start every week, regardless of the matchup.

Dalton Kincaid @ IND: Kincaid has averaged more than seven targets over the last five games, including 10 last week. As previously mentioned, Coleman and Cooper are banged up, so Kincaid should be busy against a Colts defense allowing the 4th-most fantasy points to TEs this season, per Dalton Del Don.

Jonnu Smith @ LAR: “He has at least six targets and four receptions in each of his past four games. His target share has ballooned to 23% during that stretch and he has been targeted on 27% of his routes. For reference, Tyreek Hill has a 22% target share with a .2 targets per route run in those same games. In a likely shootout with the Rams, we’re going back to the Jonnu well this week.” — Kyle Dvorchak

❌ Sit ‘Em:

Sam LaPorta @ HOU: He’s tough to sit, given the lack of options at the position. But only two TEs have beaten the Texans for more than 7.2 points, and no TE has scored more than 13.1 points against them in 2024, per Michael Fabiano.

Zach Ertz vs PIT: Rookie Ben Sinnott is starting to eat into Ertz’s playing time, and the Steelers pass defense has allowed the 7th-fewest receiving yards to opposing TEs, per USA Today’s Tom Viera. With T.J. Watt and Alex Highsmith screaming off the edges, Ertz may be tasked with more pass-blocking help than usual.

Tyler Conklin @ ARI: “Conklin only had one catch for -3 yards last week and is not getting the targets and usage he once had. The Cardinals have only allowed one TD to a TE all season, so Conklin is a low end TE2 if he even is implemented into the Jets offense.” — Draft Sharks’ Jared Smola

POLL 📊

BEST BETS 💰

2024 record: 18-9 (2-1 last week).

🥇 Jonathan Taylor OVER 21.5 receiving yards (-113)

• “The Bills defense is allowing the most yards, most catches, and most targets to RBs in the passing game this season. Jonathan Taylor has at least three catches in his two games played with Joe Flacco this season.” — FantasyPros’ Andrew Erickson

🥈 Kareem Hunt anytime TD (-135)

• Hunt has the 3rd-most touches inside the 5-yard line this season despite missing the first few weeks. This week, he faces a Broncos defense that has been generally solid against the run, but has allowed a rushing TD per game on average, per PFF’s Judah Fortgang. If you want to go big, he’s +400 to be the first TD scorer.👀

🥉 San Francisco -5.5 (-118) @ Tampa Bay

• CMC and Deebo are expected to play, and in 2022, Brock Purdy dismantled Todd Bowles’s defense in a 35-7 victory for the 49ers, followed by a 27-14 win last year, per The Ringer’s Anthony Dabbundo. This game looks like a favorable matchup for San Francisco as it seems poised to have a strong offensive performance.

Disclaimer: Gambling should be enjoyed as a form of entertainment. Never gamble more than you can afford to lose.

QUICK SLANTS 👀

📖 Read 10 Players Who’ll Out/Underperform Point Projections from NFL.com’s Michelle Magdziuk and Matt Okada. Sam Darnold tops the list as he prepares to torch the lackluster Jags defense.

📖 Read Mark Strausberg’s Players to Stash over at Fantasy Six Pack for end of the roster players that could spike in value today.

📖 Read WR Matchups for Week 10: Spots to Target and Avoid from FantasyLife’s Christopher Allen. One sneaky matchup is Keenan Allen against New England’s weakest defender, slot corner Marcus Jones. This matchup — combined with the Patriot’s poor pass rush — makes Allen a possible streamer this week.

🎙️ Listen to Establish The Run’s NFL Awards Markets podcast, where Adam Levitan, Mark Dankenbring, and Ryan Reynolds break down the favorites and long shots for year-end awards like MVP, Coach of the Year, and more.

📺 Watch Chiefs RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire have a deep discussion on the Pivot Podcast about how PTSD sidelined him this year.

TWEET OF THE DAY

Before we go, we want to send our thoughts to Kirk Herbstreit after losing his beloved dog, Ben. If you’ve watched College GameDay or Thursday Night Football over the last couple years, you know that Ben was the best boy, and he will be greatly missed. All dogs go to heaven.🙏

Good luck this week.

- Marcus