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- 🏈 Jaxon Smith-Njigba & Week 10 Trends
🏈 Jaxon Smith-Njigba & Week 10 Trends
Players to buy and sell ahead of Week 10, along with trade deadline fallout and other trends around the NFL.
Good morning.
Election Day is over, and if you’re like me, you’re ready for the Twitter/X algorithm to switch your feed back to purely football content.
As we turn our attention back to the gridiron — where the real decisions are made — we’re here to give you the insight you need to make your playoff push..
Today's newsletter highlights:
🚨 Trade Deadline recap
💰 Buy Breece
📉 Sell JSN
😕 Stream Danny Dimes?!
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AROUND THE LEAGUE 🚨
Trade Deadline Fallout
Mike Williams in his new digs // Greg MacAfee, DKPS
There weren’t a ton of ground-breaking moves at this year’s trade deadline, but a few offensive players did find new homes:
WR Mike Williams was traded to the Pittsburgh Steelers
George Pickens is still the clear WR1, but he does take a slight hit as he’s no longer the only deep/contested catch threat on the team. Williams himself is likely to be nothing more than a TD-dependant flier, but Russell Wilson loves him some deep balls, so ya never know…
The Russell Wilson, George Pickens, Mike Williams passing game
— Matt Harmon (@MattHarmon_BYB)
6:20 PM • Nov 5, 2024
RB Khalil Herbert was traded to the Cincinnati Bengals
Zack Moss was put on IR with a neck injury, so this move was made out of necessity. Chase Brown bellcow SZN is still going strong, even if Herbert spells him from time to time.
WR Jonathan Mingo was traded to the Dallas Cowboys
For whatever reason, Jerry Jones decided to give up a 4th rounder for a guy that couldn’t even see the field for the Panthers.
Chiefs get Hopkins for a 5th
Jets got Adams for a 4th
Ravens got Johnson for a 5thAnd we got Jonathan Mingo for a 4th. This family has lost their entire minds.
— Dave Sturchio (@DaveSturchio)
3:02 PM • Nov 5, 2024
Mingo’s unlikely to demonstrate fantasy value any time soon — especially with Dak Prescott going on IR. Meanwhile, Cokeheads everywhere rejoice, as this eliminates some competition for rookie WR Jalen Coker in Carolina. He’s still worth a stash, but is more of a dynasty asset than a redraft one.
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POLL 📊
Should fantasy football leagues have trade deadlines? |
MARKET TRENDS 🧐
Running Back
David Montgomery // USA Today
💰 Buy low on David Montgomery. In Week 7, he tweaked his ankle, then in Week 8, he was pulled early during a blowout, and then last week, he played well but just didn’t find the end zone. Because of this, he’s been overshadowed by Jahmyr Gibbs lately, but don’t forget that Monty was a top-10 RB for the first six weeks of the season. He should return to form over the final stretch.
💰 Buy low on Breece Hall. He’s scored just once in his last six games, but per PFF’s expected fantasy points model, he’s the RB3 overall and 8th in expected fantasy points per game. The Jets also have the No. 6 most favorable schedule for RBs, per the FantasyPros strength of schedule tool.
🖐 Hold Aaron Jones. He’s had a couple down weeks and has only scored twice on the ground all season. But go beyond that and you’ll see he’s been a stud — Jones ranks 10th among RBs in total targets and total red zone touches this season, and is 11th among all backs in yards per touch. He’s evading tackles at an above-average rate, and his seven rushes of 10 or more yards are 7th-best in the NFL as well, per Matt Savoca of the Fantasy Footballers.
📉 Sell high on J.K. Dobbins. He has 4 rushing TDs in his last four games and is averaging 16.2 points per game, but the Chargers face the Titans, Ravens, Chiefs and Broncos down the stretch — four of the toughest defenses against the run in fantasy.
📉 Sell high on Najee Harris. He’s performed well with Russell Wilson under center, but like Dobbins, his schedule is about to turn. After Pittsburgh’s bye, they take on Washington, Baltimore and Cleveland. Then, as we approach the fantasy playoffs, they get Cleveland again, followed by Philly, Baltimore, and KC. That’s a gauntlet.
🤫 Stash Audric Estime. Once again, HC Sean Payton said he wants to get the rookie more touches. It makes sense — Estime has been effective with his limited workload thus far, totaling 95 yards on 15 total carries. But the problem is Payton said the same thing a few weeks back, yet Estime has only gotten mop-up duty. He’s still worth stashing in deeper leagues just in case.
Wide Receiver
Maserati Marv // FOX Sports
💰 Buy low on Marvin Harrison, Jr. either this week or next:
Marvin Harrison Jr. rookie experience been rough, Jets and bye week coming up won't help.
Maybe a late-season boom after that?
Week 12: SEA (23rd in PPR points/game to WR)
Week 13: MIN (32nd)
Week 14: SEA (23rd)
Week 15: NE (20th)
Week 16: CAR (12th, but lol)
Week 17: LAR (24th)— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz)
1:44 PM • Nov 4, 2024
💰 Buy Mike Evans. The expectation is for him to return in Week 12, and with no Chris Godwin for the rest of the season, Evans should eat as the top threat in Tampa’s offense. Plus, his schedule looks favorable, with the Chargers being the only stingy defense he’ll face:
📉 Sell high on Jaxon Smith-Njigba. With DK Metcalf out of the lineup, JSN saw 242 air yards last Sunday, a career-high and just the 3rd time he's hit 100 air yards in his career, per Sporting News’ Michael O’Hara. Metcalf should be returning this week, which means it’s more likely that JSN reverts back to his slot/low-aDOT role. If you find someone buying the breakout performance, sell high.
📉 Sell high on Davante Adams. He’s been out-targeted by Garrett Wilson in two of three games and his 8.5-yard aDOT with the Jets would be his lowest aDOT in a decade, per Michael O’Hara. It's time to give up on Adams becoming the No. 1 in New York and sell him following his first 20-point game since Week 2.
💧 Drop Dontayvion Wicks. Sometimes, you just have to admit you’re wrong and cut your losses. Our hopes were high for Wicks — he’s an elite athlete who can definitely get open, but he just can’t catch…
Packers WR contested catch rates among 53 qualified WRs (PFF):
Jayden Reed (78%, 2nd)
Christian Watson (75%, 3rd)
Romeo Doubs (71%, 6th)
...
Dontayvion Wicks (0%, last)— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz)
7:59 PM • Nov 6, 2024
QB / TE
Daniel Jones // New York Post
🔥 Stream Daniel Jones for the rest of the year. If you lost Dak, or just need a temporary spark, grab Jones. He’s coming off a 24-point performance and has four top-12 QB finishes so far this year. The main reason to stream him, though, is he has the easiest strength of schedule among QBs going forward, per FantasyPros’ Andrew Erickson, and it starts with the Panthers in Germany Sunday morning.
💰 Buy Drake Maye. He’s looked sharp as a passer, but what he’s doing with his legs makes him all the more interesting in fantasy football:
📉 Sell Caleb Williams. Over the last two games, Williams has completed just 49.2% of his passes, while totaling just 348 passing yards with no TD throws. Just how bad has it been…?
*Cracks knuckles*
Over the last two weeks among 33 qualified QBs:
Caleb Williams:
58.2 PFF pass grade (30th)
-0.290 EPA per dropback (32nd)
-6.5% CPOE (31st)
5.4 YPA (32nd)Bryce Young:
67.7 PFF pass grade (24th)
-0.022 EPA per dropback (26th)
+4% CPOE (16th)
6.3 YPA (28th)— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz)
5:48 PM • Nov 5, 2024
🚀 Start Mike Gesicki tonight. Tee Higgins is listed as doubtful, so expect to see more Gesicki again. In four games without Higgins, Gesicki has outscored Ja’Marr Chase (61.2 > 51.4) while accumulating more air yards (239 > 182) and receiving yards (282 > 194), per CBS Sports’ Jacob Gibbs.
📈 Start Mark Andrews tonight, too. Isaiah Likely has been ruled out, and in 12 career games against Cincy, Andrews has 56 catches for 656 yards and seven TDs, per FantasyPros’ Tom Strachan.
💰 Buy Dalton Kincaid. The fantasy points haven’t been there, mostly due to a mediocre 59.3% catch rate. But the second-year TE ranks 6th at the position in target share, 5th in total targets, and 9th in expected PPR points per game. Compared to last season, he’s playing almost exactly the same amount in the slot (59.3% vs. 60.6%), and he’s even averaging slightly more yards per route (1.56 vs. 1.51), per Draft Sharks’ Jared Smola. Josh Allen hasn’t been able to hit him consistently, but that should change soon.
QUICK SLANTS 👀
📖 Read Daniel Kelley of FTN’s Fantasy Football Winners and Losers of the Trade Deadline. Kelley isn’t worried about Khalil Herbert’s impact on Chase Brown, reminding us that Herbert only commanded a 7th-round pick and doesn’t have the talent to cut deep into Brown’s workload.
📖 Read Javier Manzanera of the Fantasy Footballers’ Week 10 Streamers to Consider. Manzanera likes Jonnu Smith against the Rams, who have given up the 3rd most fantasy points to TEs this year.👀
📖 Read Jared Smola of Draft Sharks’ Top 10 Fantasy Football Takeaways from Week 9 Usage. Smola’s completely fading the Jags’ backfield:
🎙️ Listen to J.J. Zachariason’s 10 Trends for Week 10, where he admits he’s lower than the market on Jayden Reed. The Packers’ WR hasn’t hit a 20% target share in four straight games and has only surpassed that 20% mark twice this season. He’s a potential sell candidate.
📺 Watch Peyton Manning Learns Fantasy Football from ESPN+’s Peyton’s Places, where Peyton Manning talks with Matthew Berry about the history of fantasy football:
TWEET OF THE DAY
Millions of Americans woke up in a cold sweat Tuesday night at 3am and immediately rushed to their phone to check results. Well, now you know how it feels to play fantasy football. Not so easy, is it?
— Jeff (@TheFantasyEng)
1:14 PM • Nov 6, 2024
Enjoy Bengals vs Ravens tonight.
See you Sunday.
- Marcus
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