Good morning.

We’re coming to you a little later this morning due to some technical difficulties, but fortunately ours weren’t as bad as what we all dealt with Friday night on Netflix.

The good news is, between Mike Tyson’s ass and the lame fight, I’m kinda glad I watched The Soprano’s instead.

The bad news? Netflix is broadcasting two high-profile NFL matchups on Christmas Day😬.

Injury Report 🚑

Nico Back in Action (for real this time)

After blue balling us last week, Nico Collins is officially off the injury report and is expected to be a full go today against the Cowboys. Now that he’s had plenty of time to heal, expect him to pick back up where he left off.

Here’s how other big-name players with the Questionable tag are trending…

👍 Expected to play:

• CeeDee Lamb

• Davante Adams

• Amari Cooper

• Jaylen Warren

👎 Unlikely to play:

• George Kittle

🤷‍♂️ Gametime decision:

• Darnell Mooney

STARTS & SITS 🧐

Quarterback

✅ Start ‘Em:

Russell Wilson vs BAL: The Ravens have allowed 294.9 passing yards per game, the most in the league, and 22.7 fantasy points per game to opposing QBs, the 2nd-most in the league, per FantasyPros’ Dennis Sosic. Look for Russ to hit a few moon balls today.

Brock Purdy vs SEA: With his favorite checkdown (Christian McCaffrey) back in the fold, Purdy threw for a season-high 353 yards last week. In eight games without the All-Pro RB, Purdy reached 300 pass yards just once. He also tends to torch Seattle, throwing six TD passes over his last two games against them, while recording multiple TD passes in four of five career contests, per NFL.com’s Michael F. Florio.

Justin Herbert vs CIN: “Since coming off his bye in Week 5, Herbert is averaging 30 pass attempts per game and, since Week 8, he’s QB7 in PPG thanks to three straight games posting at least 19 fantasy points. Now, Herbert gets a Bengals team that, over the past four weeks, ranks 25th in pass defense.” — NBC Sports’ Matthew Berry

❌ Sit ‘Em:

Caleb Williams vs GB: Since Week 8, Williams hasn’t finished higher than QB27 in weekly scoring. Across his last three games, among 38 qualifying QBs, he ranks 37th in yards per attempt, 36th in passer rating, 35th in completion percentage over expectation, and has the 8th-highest off-target rate. In this stretch, he hasn’t thrown for a single TD. Today he faces a Green Bay pass defense that, since Week 5, have allowed the 9th-lowest yards per attempt, the 5th-fewest passing TDs, and the 4th-lowest CPOE, per FantasyPros’ Derek Brown.

Kirk Cousins @ DEN: The Broncos have only allowed teams to throw multiple TDs against them in two of their ten games this season, and Cousins has only recorded multiple passing TDs in four of his ten starts, per USA Today’s Jacob Camenker.

Sam Darnold @ TEN: The real Sam Darnold has shown up. Against Jacksonville, the worst pass defense in the league, Darnold threw zero TDs and three INTs. Fade him this week against a respectable Tennessee pass defense.

😴 Sleepers:

Drake Maye vs LAR: Maye leads the NFL in QB rush yards, scrambles and scramble yards since taking over as New England’s starter. He’s averaged more yards per scramble (10.8) than Jayden Daniels while ranking top-10 in Hero Throw rate and Off-Target throw rate. And although the Rams have the league’s 3rd best pressure rate, Maye’s fantasy production has actually increased in those instances, producing the 4th-most fantasy points per dropback when pressured, per Yahoo’s Dalton Del Don.

Bo Nix vs ATL: Nix has scored at least 20.1 fantasy points in four of his past six games. This week, he faces a Falcons defense that’s allowed the 7th-most fantasy points to opposing QB. And five of their past six opponents have scored at least 21.8 fantasy points, including four in a row with Geno Smith, Baker Mayfield, Dak Prescott and Derek Carr, per CBS Sports’ Jamey Eisenberg.

• Aaron Rodgers vs IND has been the epitome of bad vibes, but the Colts have allowed the 9th-most fantasy points per game to QBs and the 6th-most passing yards per game, per Fansided’s Justin Carter.

Running Back

✅ Start ‘Em:

Kareem Hunt @ BUF: The Bills have allowed the 2nd-most fantasy points per game to opposing RBs this season, per RotoBaller’s Joey Pollizze, so Hunt should have major TD-upside in a potentially high-scoring game.

Nick Chubb @ NO: Chubb hasn’t looked like himself, but he’s seen 75% of Cleveland’s RB carries over three games since returning. During that stetch, he’s faced three top-8 run defenses, but gets a much more favorable matchup this week: the Saints are allowing the 3rd-most fantasy points to RBs, giving up 5.2 YPC and the 3rd-most rushing TDs (14), per Dalton Del Don.

Chase Brown @ LAC: He has a tough matchup against the Chargers, who have allowed the 3rd-fewest fantasy points to opposing RBs, but you have to start Brown based on what he’s done the past two games. He’s scored at least 22.4 PPR points in each of his past two outings, posting 14 catches for 89 yards and a TD over that span on 16 targets, per Jamey Eisenberg.

❌ Sit ‘Em:

Tony Pollard vs MIN: Pollard’s snap share dropped to 53% during Tyjae Spears’ return last week, including splitting snaps evenly in the red zone, and his route participation (45%) was his lowest since Week 1. Meanwhile, Minnesota has allowed the 4th-fewest YPC (3.8) and the 2nd-fewest TD runs (four) this season, per Dalton Del Don.

Travis Etienne @ DET: Etienne hasn’t finished better than RB20 all year, and today he takes on a Detroit defense that has allowed the 4th-fewest rushing yards to opposing RBs, while ranking in the bottom-six in catches and receiving yards allowed to backs, per Michael F. Florio.

Najee Harris vs BAL: The Ravens allow just 3.2 YPC to opposing RBs and only one back has rushed for 50+ yards against them all season. While they have given up a lot of receiving production out of the backfield, Najee only has five total targets in his three games with Russell Wilson, per Matthew Berry. He’s an easy fade.

😴 Sleepers:

Gus Edwards vs CIN: The Gus Bus returned last week and put up an efficient 55 yards on 10 carries. He should see some work against Cincinnati’s 17th-ranked run defense who have allowed over four YPC, per NFL.com’s Marcas Grant.

Alexander Mattison @ MIA: The Raiders have a new OC coming off their bye in Week 10 with Scott Turner, so we’ll see if the offense gets a spark. Mattison has scored at least 15.3 PPR points in two of his past four starts, and the Dolphins have allowed the 11th-most fantasy points to opposing RBs, per Jamey Eisenberg.

• Audric Estime vs ATL could slide into lineups, now that he’s taken over the lead role in Denver’s backfield. Javonte Williams should still see most of the receiving work, but Estime should get some valuable goal line touches.

Wide Receiver

✅ Start ‘Em:

George Pickens vs BAL: Pickens has at least 70 receiving yards in all three games with Russell Wilson this season, which has helped him finish as a top-5 fantasy WR in two of the past three weeks. Meanwhile, Baltimore has given up the most fantasy points per game to opposing wideouts, per Joey Pollizze, and got torched by Ja'Marr Chase last week to the tune of 264 yards and three TDs.

Calvin Ridley vs MIN: Ridley is averaging 20.1 fantasy PPG, has a 36% target share, and has 70+ receiving yards in all three games since Tennessee traded DeAndre Hopkins. For the full season, Ridley leads the NFL with 35 deep targets, while the Vikings have allowed the 2nd-most receptions per game this season on deep targets and the 3rd-most fantasy PPG to WRs overall, per Matthew Berry.

Courtland Sutton vs ATL: Sutton recorded consecutive 100-yard games in Weeks 8 and 9 and then produced a 70-yard game with a TD last Sunday. Meanwhile, the Falcons have surrendered the 9th most fantasy points per game to opposing WRs, per Dennis Sosic.

❌ Sit ‘Em:

Amari Cooper vs KC: He’s expected to play after missing the last two games, but with a cast on his injured wrist. Plus, the Chiefs have allowed the 9th-fewest fantasy points per game to opposing wideouts, per Joey Pollizze — not great, Bob.

Jaylen Waddle vs LV: Waddle hasn’t scored double-digit fantasy points since Week 1, and today he takes on a Vegas defense that is surprisingly 5th-best against opposing WRs, per Bleacher Report’s Kristopher Knox.

D.J. Moore vs GB: Packers corner Jaire Alexander and safety Evan Williams are expected to return from injury today, which doesn’t bode well for Moore, who has scored 7.3 PPR points or less in four straight games. He hasn’t topped four catches, 33 yards, or scored a TD in every game over that span, per Jamey Eisenberg.

😴 Sleepers:

Jerry Jeudy @ NO: With Jameis Winston under center, Jeudy has come to life with WR36 and WR24 finishes. Without their top-three CBs, the Saints have played far more zone coverage (66%), and Jeudy leads the Browns in targets (16) ahead of Tillman (11), Moore (11), and Njoku (10) vs. zone coverage in their last two games, per Fantasy Points’ Graham Barfield.

Kayshon Boutte vs LAR: In Drake Maye’s four full starts, Boutte has had an impressive 11.8% target share, 1.17 yards per route run, and a 15.5% first-read share. In those games, he was the team’s field-stretcher, with six deep targets (35.3% of his target volume). Meanwhile, the Rams have allowed the 5th-most deep passing yards and the 4th-highest passer rating to deep passing. And since Week 6, they have allowed the 6th-most receiving yards per game and the 7th-most fantasy points per game to boundary receivers, per Derek Brown.

• Marquez Valdes-Scantling vs CLE could be a desperation play this week. Speaking as a Browns fan, I’ve seen way too many deep TDs given up due to busted coverages (two in Week 9 against the Chargers), so it wouldn’t surprise me if MVS gets behind their secondary at least once today.

Tight End

✅ Start ‘Em:

T.J. Hockenson @ TEN: Despite playing just 46% of snaps last week, Hockenson tied for the team lead with nine targets, while leading the Vikings with eight catches for 72 yards en route to a TE5 finish. He’s clearly a security blanket for Sam Darnold, and his snap count should only increase as the season goes on.

Tucker Kraft @ CHI: Kraft has a pretty low floor, but neverthless he’s averaged 13.7 fantasy PPG in his last six games, scoring five TDs in that span. This week, he gets the Bears, who have allowed the 4th-most yards to TEs since Week 6, per Michael F. Florio.

David Njoku @ NO: “In the three games since the Browns traded away Amari Cooper to the Bills, Njoku has 20/166/2 receiving (on 28 targets). That’s 16.2 PPR points per game. Now that he’s fully over a high ankle injury that cost him Weeks 2-4, Njoku has been involved on 77% of the Browns pass plays over his last three games. That’s just behind Travis Kelce (78%) for the 3rd-best route share among TEs.” — Graham Barfield

❌ Sit ‘Em:

Jake Ferguson vs HOU: “After seeing 18 targets across Weeks 8 and 9, Ferguson received just four against Philadelphia with Cooper Rush under center. The unfortunate reality is, as long as Dak Prescott is sidelined, Ferguson will struggle to produce on a consistent basis. I expect that to remain the case against the Texans, who allow the fewest fantasy points to this position.” — DraftKings’ Jeff Pratt

Zach Ertz @ PHI: Although it’s a revenge game for Ertz, the veteran TE has failed to post double-digit fantasy points in back-to-back weeks and takes on an Eagles D that has allowed the fewest fantasy points to opposing TEs, per USA Today’s Tom Viera.

Mike Gesicki @ LAC: Tee Higgins is back in the lineup, and the Chargers are one of few teams that have not allowed a TE to score a TD this year, per Dynasty Nerds’ Steven Pintado.

😴 Sleepers:

Taysom Hill vs CLE: “Since returning from a midseason ribs/chest injury, Hill’s route participation has increased (39% > 42% > 59%) in every game. Across his last four contests, Hill has 19/77/3 rushing and 8/98 receiving (10.9 PPR points per game – TE7). The Saints are so desperate for pass catchers that Hill actually tied for the team lead in routes run with Marquez Valdes-Scantling last week.” — Graham Barfield

Will Dissly vs CIN: Even with Hayden Hurst back in the lineup over the last two weeks, Dissly has still seen 61.2% of snaps and a 20.5% target share. Tonight he takes on a Cincinnati defense that’s allowing the 4th-most fantasy points to opposing TEs this season, including the 2nd-most TDs to the position, per Gridiron Experts’ Jason Willan.

• Brock Wright vs JAX and Dawson Knox vs KC could be viable spot-starts, too, given Sam LaPorta and Dalton Kincaid’s injuries. They’re likely to be TD-dependent, but TE options on waivers are slim.

POLL 📊

BEST BETS 💰

2024 record: 18-12 (0-3 last week🤦‍♂️)

🥇 Breece Hall OVER 68.5 rushing yards @ IND (-110)

• The Colts have allowed the 3rd-most rushing yards in the NFL, and with Anthony Richardson starting, expect the Jets to dominate in time of possession. Look for Breece Lightning to capitalize on the extra opportunities.

🥈 Justin Herbert OVER 242.5 passing yards vs CIN (-113)

• He’s playing lights out the past 5 weeks, averaging 262 passing yards per game. Herbert also leads the NFL with 9.3 yards per attempt the past month, per Yahoo’s Sal Vetri, and should stay hot against the Bengals’ 27th ranked secondary.

🥉 Kenneth Walker UNDER 54.5 rushing yards @ SF (-110)

• Walker’s gone under this total in three of his last five games, including a 32 yard outing against this top-10 San Fran run D in Week 6.

Disclaimer: Gambling should be enjoyed as a form of entertainment. Never gamble more than you can afford to lose.

QUICK SLANTS 👀

📖 Read Rich Hribar of Sharp Football Analysis’ The Worksheet (free trial available). Lord Reebs writes up everything you need to know for Week 11, including game-by-game tables and data points as he analyzes each matchup.

📖 Read Matthew Berry of NBC Sports’ Love/Hate for Week 11 for a deep dive into some additional starts and sits.

📖 Read Nic Bodiford of PFF’s 3 WR/CB Matchups to Target and 3 to Avoid ($) to help shed some insight into specific matchups we might see today, like WR Cedric Tillman taking on his fomer college teammate, CB Alontae Taylor. Bodiford expects Tillman to have his way with the Saints’ struggling corner.

🎙️ Listen to Colin Cowherd’s Fantasy Football Over/Under Picks + The 10 Biggest Questions for Week 11 on the FantasyPros Fantasy Football Podcast. Ryan Wormeli, Pat Fitzmaurice, and Derek Brown answer some of the week’s biggest wonders, like “Will the Bears’ offense improve without Shane Walron?”

📺 Watch this hilarious replacement for a coin toss at a high school state title game:

TWEET OF THE DAY

Before we go, send your well wishes to Purdue’s grounds crew after they cost their team a TD.

Still can’t be a worse feeling than I've had starting Travis Etienne every week though…

Good luck today.

- Marcus