Good morning.

Fantasy football trade deadlines are approaching within the next couple weeks, so be prepared for that guy in your league to send you five bench players for Lamar Jackson and then tell you he’s doing you a favor.

Don’t be that guy.

Instead, you can be the guy that makes smart deals based on the insight you’ll get from today’s newsletter. So let’s dive in…

MARKET TRENDS 🧐

Quarterback

💰 Buy Bo Nix. Since Week 5, he’s the QB7 in PPG (20.4), averaging two total TDs and 30 rushing yards per game. That paces out to over 500 rushing yards on the season and 34 total TDs. Plus, his upcoming schedule is beautiful, with five of the last six games against bottom-13 defenses against QBs, per Player Profiler’s Chris O’Brien.

📉 Sell Caleb WIlliams and all Chicago Bears. There’s a possibility that they see a “new coach bump” after the firing of OC Shane Waldron, but based on recent evidence, I doubt that:

💰 Buy Baker Mayfield. This one’s simple: Baker’s currently the QB3 on the season, but many still don’t believe he’s all that good. And with a cakewalk schedule to end the year (NYG, CAR, LV, LAC, DAL, CAR), it’s easy to see him finishing near QB3 as well.

📉 Sell Patrick Mahomes. He’s only had one top-10 QB performance this season, but you can definitely get top-10 QB return for him. Although he has some soft match-ups coming up against Carolina and Vegas, he plays the Chargers in the fantasy regular season finally, and then the Steelers in the fantasy championships.

💰 Buy Justin Herbert. He’s scored 24.1, 19.5, and 19.8 points over his last three games while rushing for 27.7 yards per game. He was averaging 11.7 points per game and 5.7 rushing yards per game in his six games prior to this stretch, per J.J. Zachariason.

Running Back

💰 Buy Bucky Irving. He’s clearly passed Rachaad White as the lead rusher in Tampa, carrying 29 times to White’s 19 over the past three games. White still leads the rookie in receiving, but only 16-13 in targets over that same span, per Draft Sharks’ Matt Schauf. Plus, the Bucs have the best remaining RB schedule by far:

📉 Sell Chuba Hubbard. He’s finished as a top-10 RB in back-to-back weeks, but rookie Jonathon Brooks should return in Week 12 after the Panthers’ bye week. He will slowly be worked into the offense, taking away from Hubbard’s workload. Carolina’s short-term schedule is tough, too, as they take on two of the top-5 run defenses in the league (KC and Philly), per LWOS’ Austin Ambler.

💰 Buy Tyrone Tracy Jr. He’s been a workhorse since taking over the starting role in Week 5, earning 76% of RB carries, 61% of RB targets, and averaging 98.7 yards per game. Plus his schedule is incredible, with match-ups against TB (26th against RBs), DAL (30th), NO (25th), BAL (7th), ATL (12th) and IND (17th), per Chris O’Brien.

📉 Sell Najee Harris. He found the end zone last week, which boosted him up to a respectable 11.3 fantasy points. But in typical Najee style, he plodded his way to just 53 yards at a 2.5 YPC clip, while Jaylen Warren averaged 4.7 YPC. Also, every remaining team on the Steelers’ schedule is top-10 against opposing RBs, per CBS Sports’ Adam Aizer.

🤫 Stash Trey Benson. He had 12 touches and a career-high 87 yards last week, and has been ramping up as of late:

Weeks 1-8: 17.9% rush share, 3.79 YPC
Weeks 9-10: 30.5% rush share, 5.5 YPC

(per Fantasy Points)

He’s also passing the eye test, too:

James Conner’s been a beast, but he’s never played a full season in his career, making Benson one of the more intriguing handcuffs to stash ahead of the fantasy playoffs.

📉 Sell James Cook. He’s the RB11 in PPR, but has a brutal upcoming stretch: KC, Bye, SF, LAR, DET. Plus, the Bills have been trending a little more pass-heavy as of late. On the season, the Bills run the ball at the 11th-highest rate at 47% of their offensive plays. But over the last three games, they’ve run the ball at only the 21st-highest rate, dropping down to 42% of their plays, per QBList’s Chris Helle.

Wide Receiver

💰 Buy DeVonta Smith. Jalen Hurts and the Eagles’ passing offense has been absolutely rolling as of late, and based on their upcoming schedule, it might only get better:

It’ll be next to impossible to acquire Hurts or A.J. Brown, but you can send out some feelers for DeVonta Smith after he posted just 3.4 PPR points last week.

📉 Sell Amon-Ra St. Brown. This might sound like a hot take, but ARSB has been highly TD-dependent. He’s posted 75+ yards just three times on the season (33% of his games), but has benefited from seven straight games with a score, per Chris O’Brien. Also, the Lions could be pretty run heavy going forward, with three projected blowouts on the horizon (vs Jags, Colts, Bears).

💰 Buy Marvin Harrison Jr. He ranks 2nd in the NFL in win rate vs. man coverage (46.9%), 3rd in receiving TDs (6), and 7th in deep targets (15), yet he only ranks 64th in red zone targets (4) and 38th in target share (22.1%), per Austin Abbott. If he sees just a slight uptick in usage, he could easily be a top-10 WR.

📉 Sell Brian Thomas Jr. He was the WR8 after Week 7, but has averaged just 8.13 PPG since and might be stuck catching passes from Mac Jones for the rest of the year. It’s hard to imagine he’ll make any big plays like he did early on.

💰 Buy high on Calvin Ridley. Since Week 8, Ridley is the WR3 in fantasy, averaging nearly 17 points per game, per RotoBaller’s Jorden Hill. But because he’s on a bad team with an unproven QB, he may not be viewed as a WR1. If you can get him for a WR2 price tag, do it. His upcoming schedule is juicy:

💰 Buy George Pickens. “Dude has been absolutely balling with Wilson under center, with a 27% target share, 42% air yards share averaging 92 receiving yards per game. Buy HIM aggressively. Because the best might be yet to come. Keep in mind he only had two TDs this season despite being top-10 in yards among WRs.” — FantasyPros’ Andrew Erickson

📉 Sell CeeDee Lamb. Despite seeing 10 targets, Lamb was held to just 21 receiving yards last week, while Cooper Rush and Trey Lance combined to throw for 66 yards with zero TDs and one INT on 29 attempts. With Dak Prescott out for the year, stay away from this offense.

💰 Buy Jauan Jennings:

😓 Thoughts and prayers to those who just traded for Josh Downs. All Colts pass catchers are likely to take a hit now that the team announced Anthony Richardson will start the remainder of the season. While Joe Flacco was struggling lately, Richardson’s passing woes have been historic:

Tight End

💰 Buy T.J. Hockenson. “After a relatively quiet first game in his return from major knee surgery, Hockenson racked up a team-leading eight receptions on nine targets Sunday for 72 yards. It won't take much for him to get back to TE1 status, and he appears well on his way.” — USA Today’s Daniel Dobish

📉 Sell high on Sam LaPorta. He had six catches for 66 yards and a TD last week, but LaPorta’s led the Lions in targets just once this season and has fallen below a 10% target share in four games. He’s even seen as many or fewer targets than David Montgomery in five of nine games this season, per Sporting News’ Michael O’Hara.

💰 Buy Will Dissly in deeper leagues / TE Premium. He’s become a favorite of Justin Herbert’s, leading the Chargers with a 41.7% first-read target share last week, per Draft Sharks’ Jared Smola. He’s averaging nearly seven targets per game over his last four contests, which is more than many TE2 options can say.

✋ Hold Trey McBride. He’s the TE3 overall despite not having a single receiving TD. He’s due for some positive regression and should also benefit from the same soft schedule mentioned in MHJ’s write-up.

POLL 📊

QUICK SLANTS 👀

📖 Read Denny Carter of NBC Sports’ Week 11 Regression Files, where he highlights players who have overperformed their opportunity, as well as those who have been on the wrong side of variance.

📖 Read Chris Allen of Yahoo’s Storylines to Watch in Week 11, including Bijan proving he’s without a doubt the RB1 this year.👀

📖 Read The Top 10: Week 11 from Footballguys’ Matt Waldman, where he explains his top-10 fantasy football takeaways from film analysis.

🎙️ Listen to J.J. Zachariason’s 15 Transactions for Week 11, where he recommends players to buy, sell, and add.

📺 Watch Kyle Brandt of NFL Network’s Week 10 Angry Runs if you feel like running through a brick wall😡

TWEET OF THE DAY

Before we go, send your well wishes to Cowboys players, who have to deal with an owner that allows tours through team facilities during the season and built a stadium where the Sun routinely blinds his own team.

It’s never been easier to hate on America’s Team.

Enjoy Commanders vs Eagles. See you Sunday.

- Marcus