Good morning.

The Morning Huddle team is in Mexico for a close friend’s wedding this week, so unfortunately the next few newsletters will be a little brief. You wouldn’t want them to be too long anyway… or else the endless cervezas and margaritas might have me telling you to start Daniel Jones or something.

So before I get too carried away, let’s get into a handful of Week 12 starts and sits.

START ‘EM 📈

✅ QB Justin Herbert vs BAL: Herbie has averaged 21.9 fantasy points per game in his last four contests with multiple passing TDs in three. Plus, the Ravens have allowed the 3rd-most fantasy points per game, the most passing yards, and 2nd-most TDs to the opposing QBs this season, per NFL.com’s Michael F. Florio.

✅ RB Brian Robinson Jr. vs DAL: Since Week 6, Dallas has allowed the 2nd-highest explosive run rate, the 4th-most rushing yards per game, and the 3rd-highest gap rushing success rate (55.6% of Robinson’s runs have been gap scheme runs), per FantasyPros’ Derek Brown. With the Commanders likely leading much of this game, expect them to pound the rock with B-Rob.

✅ RBs Rachaad White and Bucky Irving @ NYG: Since Week 6, the Giants D has allowed the highest explosive run rate, the most rushing yards per game, and the 8th-highest yards after contact per attempt, per Derek Brown. That bodes well for both Tampa RBs, who should get plenty of work in what could be a blowout.

✅ WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba vs ARI: “In his last two games, JSN has racked up 24 targets, 17 catches, 290 receiving yards and two receiving TDs while averaging 29.4 FPPG. Over his past seven outings, he’s averaged 9.3 targets per game. He appears to have firmly surpassed Tyler Lockett in the Seattle receiver pecking order, and he can easily co-exist with DK Metcalf, since the Seahawks pass on 64.5 percent of their plays, the 4th-highest rate in the league.” — Michael F. Florio

✅ WR Devaughn Vele @ LV: This is a deeeep one for you sickos out there. The Raiders have allowed the most fantasy points per game and the 6th-most receiving yards per game to opposing slot receivers, per Fantasy Points Data.

SIT ‘EM 📉

❌ QB Sam Darnold @ CHI: Chicago has allowed the fewest fantasy points to opposing QBs and ranks 2nd in EPA per dropback allowed, per NBC Sports’ Kyle Dvorchak. Plus, Darnold has been struggling lately. He’s down to 16.8 fantasy points per game over his past six appearances after averaging 20.6 through the first month of the year.

❌ RB Chuba Hubbard vs KC: The Chiefs are allowing just 12.5 fantasy points per game to opposing RBs this year, per Kyle Dvorchak. Plus, Johnathon Brooks is returning. And while he isn’t expected to take on much of a workload early on, he still could eat into Hubbard’s role enough to downgrade him.

❌ RB D’Andre Swift vs MIN: 9.9 of his 16.4 fantasy points last week came on just one run. And today, he takes on a Vikings D that has allowed just three backs to beat them for 17+ points, and only four have scored double digits in PPR leagues, per SI’s Michael Fabiano.

❌ WRs Jauan Jennings and Ricky Pearsall @ GB: Brock Purdy has been ruled out, so veteran Brandon Allen will start. Allen hasn’t started an NFL game since 2021, so temper any expectations for 49ers pass catchers.

❌ WR Courtland Sutton @ LV: Believe it or not, the Raiders have allowed the 2nd-fewest fantasy points per game to perimeter receivers, and Sutton hasn’t scored more than 13.2 points in their last four meetings, per Michael Fabiano.

POLL 📊

BEST BETS 💰

2024 record: 21-12 (3-0 last week)

🥇 Tampa Bay Buccaneers -6 over the NY Giants (-115)

• Two words: Tommy DeVito

🥈 Brock Bowers OVER 60 receiving yards (-110)

• Gardner Minshew is expected to start for Vegas, and Bowers averages 2.67 yards per route run with Minshew under center, as opposed to just 1.60 with Aidan O'Connell, per ESPN’s Ben Solak.

🥉 Marvin Harrison Jr. anytime TD (+175)

• He’s scored in two of his last three games, and the Seahawks have allowed the 4th-highest completion percentage on deep passes, per USA Today’s Tom Viera.

Disclaimer: Gambling should be enjoyed as a form of entertainment. Never gamble more than you can afford to lose.

QUICK SLANTS 👀

For a deeper look at Week 12 starts and sits, check out these three weekly must-reads:

📖 Matthew Berry of NBC Sports’ Love/Hate for Week 12.

📖 Jamey Eisenberg of CBS Sports’ Week 12 Start ‘Em Sit ‘Em.

📖 Graham Barfield of Fantasy Points’ Week 12 Start ‘Em Sit ‘Em.

TWEET OF THE DAY

Good luck this week.

And wish my liver luck too while you’re at it.

- Marcus