Good morning.

We’re back from Mexico and back in your inboxes! Sorry for the miscommunication — I should’ve let you know we’d be taking Thanksgiving off. That’s my bad.

But if there’s anything I’m thankful for, it’s being able to hold down food again (no more tostadas for me) and, of course, NFL football. So let’s get right into some Week 13 starts and sits.

INJURY REPORT 🚑

As of now, every fantasy-relevant player with the Questionable tag is trending in the right direction. That includes:

• Brock Purdy

• Trevor Lawrence

• Breece Hall

• Tyjae Spears

• DeVonta Smith

• Keon Coleman

• DeMario Douglas

• Alec Pierce

• Younghoe Koo

But, as always, be sure to check the latest updates right before kickoff.

STARTS & SITS 🧐

Quarterback

✅ Start ‘Em:

Justin Herbert @ ATL: Herbert has been fantasy’s QB9 over the last five games, and the Chargers will likely continue to rely more on the pass with J.K. Dobbins out. Meanwhile, the Falcons are a pass-funnel defense, allowing the 10th-fewest fantasy points to RBs, but the 7th-most to QBs this season. Atlanta has also ceded multiple TD passes in seven straight games, allowing a whopping 18 over that span, per Yahoo’s Dalton Del Don.

Anthony Richardson @ NE: The Pats have allowed eight TD passes in the past two games, and four of the past five QBs against them have scored at least 21.3 fantasy points, per CBS Sports’ Jamey Eisenberg.

❌ Sit ‘Em:

Kyler Murray @ MIN: Minnesota leads the NFL in blitz rate and two high coverage rate (68.4%). Against the blitz, Murray ranks 24th in passing grade and has the 6th-highest turnover-worthy throw rate. And against two-high coverage, Murray is 25th in fantasy points per dropback and 20th in completion percentage over expectation, per FantasyPros’ Derek Brown.

Geno Smith @ NYJ: Geno has scored less than 16 points in two straight contests and has one or zero TD passes in three of his last four. Now he faces the Jets, who have allowed the 2nd-fewest passing yards and passing TDs this season, per NFL.com’s Michael F. Florio.

😴 Sleeper:

Bryce Young vs TB: The former 1st-overall pick has looked better recently, throwing for a season-high 263 yards and one TD last week. Today he takes on Tampa Bay, who are 29th in total pass defense and have allowed the 2nd-most fantasy points to opposing QBs, per Bleacher Report’s Maurice Moton.

Running Back

✅ Start ‘Em:

Chuba Hubbard vs TB: Over his last 9 games, Chuba has:

• 8 TDs

• 21.8 opportunities/game

• 5 yards per carry

• 76% of snaps

(per Chris O’Brien)

Plus, Tampa is a top-5 matchup for RBs and the 46.5 over/under suggests plenty of points should be scored.

Bucky Irving @ CAR: Since Week 6, Irving is the RB10 in fantasy points per game with 15+ points in five of six games during that stretch. The rookie is coming off season-highs in touches (18), scrimmage yards (151) and target share (20%), while finally out-snapping Rachaad White for the first time in a game in which they were both healthy. It also helps that the Panthers have allowed the most fantasy points to opposing RBs this season, per NBC Sports’ Matthew Berry.

❌ Sit ‘Em:

Travis Etienne and Tank Bigsby vs HOU: Houston has allowed the 6th-fewest fantasy points to RBs this season, and Jacksonville has the 5th-lowest implied team total (20.5 points), per Dalton Del Don. Plus, with both backs healthy now, they’ll likely eat into each other’s already limited workload.

Najee Harris @ CIN: “Since Pittsburgh’s Week 9 bye, Jaylen Warren is averaging more yards per game than Harris and has played only seven fewer snaps. Also, since the bye, Harris is averaging only 2.9 YPC and he has less 3.6 YPC in all three of Pittsburgh’s games. Over that same four-week time period, Cincinnati ranks top-10 in fewest fantasy points and rushing yards allowed to RBs.” — Matthew Berry

😴 Sleeper:

Jeremy McNichols vs TEN: Brian Robinson Jr. will start for the Commanders, but he could still be limited with an ankle injury. Austin Ekeler is on IR, so McNichols would be the one to spell B-Rob. In his only game with 35%+ snaps this season (Week 4), McNichols was the RB9 with 20.4 fantasy points, per Joe Orrico.

Wide Receiver

✅ Start ‘Em:

George Pickens @ CIN: Pickens is the WR11 and averaging 15.9 fantasy points per game since Russell Wilson took over. In that time, he has a 30% target share and a 15.7 average depth of target. And today he takes on Cincy, who allows the 5th most schedule adjusted points to WRs, per Chris O’Brien.

Ladd McConkey @ ATL: Ladd is the WR18 in all of fantasy football this year, and this week he gets a matchup with Atlanta's defense, which has averaged the most fantasy points allowed to WRs over the last four weeks, including six TDs (tied for 2nd-most), per USA Today’s Jack McKessy.

❌ Sit ‘Em:

Deebo Samuel @ BUF: Although Purdy is expected to play, Buffalo could be getting up to three feet of snow before tonight’s game. Plus, Deebo has just 9.2 total points in his past two games, and the Bills have allowed the 8th-fewest fantasy points to opposing WRs, per Jamey Eisenberg.

Marvin Harrison Jr. @ MIN: The Vikings have the highest two-high rate in the NFL (68.4%), and two-high coverage has been Harrison Jr.’s kryptonite. Against two-high, MHJ has just a 17.9% target share, 1.46 yards per route run, and a 25.7% first-read share, per Derek Brown.

😴 Sleeper:

Darnell Mooney vs LAC:

Tight End

✅ Start ‘Em:

Will Dissly @ ATL: In four games as the starter, Dissly has turned his 27 targets into 21 receptions for 249 yards and one TD (good for 13.0 PPG / TE5). This is also a great matchup for him, as Atlanta deploys zone coverage 75% of the time, and Dissly has been far more efficient when facing zones (2.81 yards per route run) than man-to-man coverage (0.57 YPRR), per Fantasy Points’ Graham Barfield.

Taysom Hill vs LAR: It’s hard not to start him after his 41.52 point performance in Week 11. The Saints have been decimated by injuries, so while 41 points won’t be the norm, they’re sure to find creative ways to get Hill the ball. And with a healthy over/under of 49.5 points in this matchup, bank on him finding the end zone.

❌ Sit ‘Em:

Kyle Pitts vs LAC: The Chargers play two-high safety coverage on 61% of dropbacks (2nd-most). Pitts has massive splits in terms of his efficiency vs. two-high safety looks (1.07 yards per route run / 41st-of-49 TEs) when compared to single-high coverages (2.58 YPRR / 4th-best). LA is also holding opposing TEs to -3.2 schedule adjusted fantasy points per game below average (4th-fewest), per Graham Barfield.

Evan Engram vs HOU: The Texans are allowing the 4th-fewest fantasy points per game and the 5th-fewest receiving yards to opposing TEs — and those rankings would be even better if not for one 70-yard TD by Chig Okonkwo on a broken play last week, per Michael F. Florio.

😴 Sleeper:

Austin Hooper vs IND: Hooper has carved out a role recently, seeing at least four targets in five of the last six weeks. In that span, he's also recorded three or four receptions in five outings. Meanwhile, the Colts are 27th in total pass defense and have allowed the 8th-most fantasy points to TEs, per Maurice Moton.

POLL 📊

BEST BETS 💰

2024 record: 22-14 (1-2 last week)

🥇 Bucky Irving OVER 76.5 rushing + receiving yards (-118)

• Irving has at least 77 scrimmage yards in five of his last six games. The one game he didn’t accomplish this was against the Chiefs, who have a much better defense than his opponent this week: the Panthers. Carolina has given up the 2nd-most rushing yards to opposing RBs and is middle-of-the-pack in RB receiving yardage allowed as well, per ESPN’s Daniel Dopp.

🥈 Chargers -1.5 over the Falcons (-105)

• The Falcons have lost two in a row and are coming off a 38-6 pounding from Bo Nix and the Denver Broncos. Meanwhile, the Chargers are playing some of the best ball in the league, despite their loss to the Ravens last week. Look for Harbaugh and Herbert to roll in the ATL.

🥉 Russell Wilson OVER 1.5 passing TDs (+130)

• “The Bengals rank among the top-10 most generous defenses in the NFL in terms of passing TDs allowed, and they've surrendered an average of 2.3 pass TDs over the past three weeks.” — Sporting News’ Sloan Piva

Disclaimer: Gambling should be enjoyed as a form of entertainment. Never gamble more than you can afford to lose.

QUICK SLANTS 👀

📖 Read Week 13 Weekend Waiver Wire from Mike Reedy of FantraxHQ for last-minute adds and mindful stashes.

📖 Read ESPN’s Guide to Every Week 13 NFL Game, including matchup previews, predictions, picks and nuggets.

🎙️ Listen to the Yahoo Fantasy Forecast’s Week 13 Preview, where Andy Behrens and Matt Harmon give you everything you need to know for today and Monday’s games.

📺 Watch this insane brawl from yesterday’s Ohio State vs Michigan game.😳 It was one of three brawls in college football yesterday.

TWEET OF THE DAY

Good luck this week.

- Marcus