Good morning.

It’s the final week of the fantasy football regular season! So what does the NFL decide to do? Put six teams on a bye.🙃 Not like you were relying on Lamar Jackson, Jayden Daniels, or Nico Collins to get you in the playoffs, right?

But hopefully you’ve already clinched a playoff spot and can set your sights on the next few weeks. And that’s what we’ll do in today’s newsletter. Those of you without a trade deadline can target some of these players for the stretch run, while those of you stuck with your teams can still benefit from some of the stats and stashes we’ll throw your way.

So without further ado, let’s get into it…

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MARKET TRENDS 🧐

Quarterback

📈 Stock up: Caleb Williams. The Bears offense has turned a corner under Thomas Brown, as Williams has scored the 4th-most fantasy points of any QB over the last three weeks, averaging 23.1 PPG (up from 14.2). Over this stretch, he’s averaging 170.8 catchable air yards per game (would rank 10th-best among all teams), up from just 115.4 (would rank dead-last), per Scott Barrett of Fantasy Points.

💰 Buy Bo Nix. The rookie has finished as the QB12 or higher in six of his past nine games and has a great fantasy playoff schedule, too (IND, LAC, CIN). If you can stream elsewhere Week 16 against the Chargers, then Nix could win you the ‘ship in Week 17 against a Bengals D that’s allowing the 3rd-most fantasy PPG to opposing QBs.

✋ Hold Baker Mayfield. He’s down at QB29 in fantasy PPG over the last five weeks, but he’s averaged 250+ passing yards per game in his last two with Mike Evans, and their upcoming schedule is pretty juicy (LV, LAC, DAL, CAR). Those teams are giving up 21.8, 18, 23, and 22.9 fantasy PPG to QBs over the last six weeks, per John Hansen of Fantasy Points.

📉 Sell high on Lamar Jackson. Before you close out of this, hear me out. If you don’t have a trade deadline and can get an elite return for him, go for it — especially if you need a win this week. Lamar can’t help you on a bye, and even when he returns, the Ravens will take on the Giants, Steelers, and Texans. Derrick Henry might see 40 carries in a blowout against the G-Men, and Jackson had his worst game of the year (QB24) three weeks ago against Pittsburgh.

📉 Sell Jared Goff. The Lions might be the best offense in the league, but their QB has just three games with over 20 fantasy points all season. On top of that, all four of the Lions’ upcoming opponents rank in the top-8 against the pass, per Pro Football Network’s Jason Katz.

Running Back

🚀 Bucky Irving is a league-winner. He’s impossible to tackle: the rookie leads the league with 4.0 YPC when hit at or behind the line of scrimmage (the league average is 1.6 YPC). He’s also 2nd with 256 yards rushing when contacted at or behind the line — just one yard behind Saquon Barkley — but Irving has those yards on 40 fewer attempts, per Rich Hribar of Sharp Football Analysis.

💰 Buy Jonathan Taylor. According to lookahead lines, the Colts face the Broncos as 2.5-point favorites, the Titans as 4.0-point favorites, and the Giants (who have allowed the most schedule-adjusted fantasy PPG on the ground of any team over their last five games) in the fantasy playoffs. All should be ideal game scripts for Taylor. He’s also due for some serious positive TD regression, as he’s failed to score on all nine of his carries inside the 10-yard line since Week 9, per Ryan Heath of Fantasy Points.

💰 Buy low on Tony Pollard. He’s been absolutely crushing when the Titans win, averaging 19.7 PPG in victories, and based on his upcoming schedule, there’s a good chance they win another two or three (JAX, CIN, IND, JAX), per John Hansen.

📉 Stock down: Chuba Hubbard. In Week 13, he registered his lowest rush share (57%) since Week 2 with Jonathon Brooks starting to mix in. Hubbard finished with only 4.3 fantasy points and posted his lowest Utilization Score since Week 1 at 5.4, per FantasyLife’s Dwain McFarland.

🤫 Stash these rookie handcuffs…

Blake Corum: Last week, the rookie played a season-high 33% of the Rams snaps and earned 35% of the RB carries. The Rams have soft RB matchups to end the fantasy season (BUF, SF, NYJ, ARI), so if Kyren Williams were to miss time, Corum would instantly become a potential league-winner.

Trey Benson: The Cardinals face the Panthers, Patriots and Rams in the fantasy playoffs. The Panthers currently allow the most rushing yards per game, the Patriots rank bottom-10 in run defense according to PFF and the Rams allowed 124 yards to James Conner back in Week 2.

Ray Davis: The Bills rookie earned 23 touches (152 total yards) when starting in place of the injured James Cook in Week 6 and currently ranks 8th among all backs averaging 5.4 yards per touch.

Kimani Vidal: In his first game without Dobbins, Vidal played a season-high 27% of the Chargers snaps, carrying the ball four times for 20 yards, including a 16-yard run. Gus Edwards is the clear starter, but Vidal definitely has more juice.

(stats per Yahoo’s Sal Vetri)

Wide Receiver

📈 Stock up: Browns pass catchers. Since Jameis Winston took over in Week 8, Cedric Tillman became fantasy-relevant, Elijah Moore and David Njoku are averaging 9+ targets per game, and Jerry Jeudy leads the NFL in receiving yards (581) despite the Browns having a Week 10 bye, per FantasyLife’s Ian Hartitz.

💰 Buy Jakobi Meyers. His past four games include these receiving lines:

• 8-105 on 11 targets vs. the Bengals

• 10-121 on 15 targets vs. the Broncos

• 6-97 on 11 targets vs. the Chiefs

He gets another positive matchup with Tampa Bay in Week 14, and then the best fantasy football playoffs schedule among WRs (ATL, JAX, NO), per Matt Schauf of DraftSharks.

📉 Sell Amon-Ra St. Brown. It might feel wrong, but it’s the right thing to do. He’s had back-to-back down weeks and Detroit has the 2nd-hardest playoff schedule among WRs (BUF, CHI, SF). They also just run the ball so well that they haven’t had the passing volume we hoped for this season.

💰 Buy Tee Higgins, both in re-draft and dynasty leagues. As pointed out by David J. Gautieri, Nico Collins and Tee Higgins are the same age (25) and are the WR2 and WR3 in fantasy PPG this year (19.5 and 18.4). Collins is valued as a top-6 Dynasty WR, yet Higgins isn’t even in the top-12. He’s a great offseason trade candidate for those of you (like me) whose dynasty teams are already looking ahead to 2025.

👀 Monitor Ladd McConkey’s shoulder and knee injuries. His status for this Sunday is in doubt, which is a shame since he’s been hitting his stride lately. Ladd has one of the more favorable fantasy playoff schedules, too — the Chargers’ next two opponents both rank as top-8 pass funnels, and their final two (the Broncos and Patriots) are ideal schematic matchups for McConkey, who has shredded man coverage to the tune of 3.35 YPRR (2nd-best behind only Justin Jefferson), per Ryan Heath.

Tight End

🚀 Jonnu Smith is Miami’s #1 receiver. Since Miami’s Week 6 bye, he leads the team in targets (+10 more than Tyreek Hill), receptions (+12 more than Hill), and yards (+140 more than Hill). And over the last three weeks, Smith ranks 2nd among all receivers in fantasy points and would rank 4th among all WRs in expected fantasy points, per Scott Barrett. He might be the waiver wire pickup of the year.

💰 Buy/Stash Juwan Johnson. Taysom Hill will join Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed on IR, leaving Johnson as one of the few healthy targets left in New Orleans. As we noted in Tuesday’s waivers newsletter, he’s essentially a big slot receiver for the Saints. And according to PlayerProfiler, his efficiency metrics are off the charts. He ranks 8th at the position in fantasy points per target (2.02), 6th in QB rating per target (123.6), and 5th in the aggregate production premium score (+13.8).

📉 Sell Mark Andrews. He’s been hot lately, but he has the 2nd-most difficult playoff schedule among TEs (NYG, PIT, HOU) and has been fairly TD-dependent most of the year.

✋ Hold Will Dissly. He posted a goose egg this past weekend, but he would see additional targets if Ladd McConkey doesn't play. Plus, he takes on the Chiefs this week, who offer the 7th-highest fantasy boost to the TE position, per Dwain McFarland.

POLL 📊

QUICK SLANTS 👀

📖 Read Scott Rinear of RotoBaller’s thread with the Top 10 most and least favorable playoff schedules for each position:

📖 Read The Everything Report: 2024 Week 14 from Scott Barrett of Fantasy Points. We’ve shouted this article out before, but it’s truly the Holy Grail of fantasy football stats and insights each and every week.

📖 Read Matthew Berry’s Week 14 Rankings to help you with some early Start/Sit decisions.

📖 Read SPAM’s response to Cleveland Browns Daily radio host Nathan Zegura calling Deshaun Watson a “SPAM sandwich”😂

🎙️ Listen to The Ringer Fantasy Football Show’s 2024 NFL Re-Draft, where Danny Heifetz, Danny Kelly, and Craig Horlbeck re-draft the 2024 class according to what they’ve seen so far from this year’s crop of rookies.

📺 Watch Browns Assistant OL Coach Roy Istvan fire up his players in the most “Football Guy” way possible:

TWEET OF THE DAY

I’m personally offended…

Enjoy Packers vs Lions.

And remember: take your TNF players out of your FLEX.

See you Sunday.

- Marcus