Good morning.

Hope you weren’t relying on anyone from Thursday night’s game…

I watch the Browns play every Sunday and I still couldn’t sit through that entire snoozefest.

Hopefully today’s a little more entertaining, so let’s get into some starts and sits that’ll help you advance to the next round…

Injury Report 🚑

Bucky Irving a Gametime Decision

Bucs RB Bucky Irving has carried managers to the fantasy playoffs, but after sustaining back and hip injuries, his status for today’s game remains up in the air. He managed to log a limited practice on Friday, but whether or not he plays will be determined by how his back feels during pregame warm-ups. Be sure to check the latest reports ahead of kickoff.

Here’s how other injured players are trending…

👍 Expected to play:

• Breece Hall

• Tony Pollard

• D’Andre Swift

• Jakobi Meyers

• Josh Downs

• Dalton Kincaid

• Harrison Butker

👎 Unlikely to play:

• Derek Carr

• Drew Lock

• Kenneth Walker

🤷‍♂️ Gametime decision:

• Ladd McConkey

• David Njoku

STARTS & SITS 🧐

Quarterback

✅ Start ‘Em:

Bo Nix vs IND: Nix is quietly the QB5 since Week 5, and his yards per attempt increase by 1.6 yards against zone coverage, which the Colts have used at the league’s highest rate (80%), per Yahoo’s Dalton Del Don.

Tua Tagovaila @ HOU: Tua’s averaging 325.3 passing yards over his last four games and has 11 TDs with no interceptions in that span. He’ll take on a Texans D that’s tied for the most passing TDs allowed to QBs this season (26), per USA Today’s Jacob Camenker.

Sam Darnold vs CHI: “Darnold has scored at least 23.6 fantasy points in four games in a row, including 25.1 points in Week 12 at Chicago. He passed for 330 yards and two touchdowns against the Bears, and Chicago has now allowed four QBs in a row to score at least 20.9 fantasy points.” — CBS Sports’ Jamey Eisenberg

❌ Sit ‘Em:

Russell Wilson @ PHI: There are three reasons to fade Mr. Unlimited this week:

1. He’s scored fewer than 16.1 fantasy points in three of his last four games.

2. Over the last eight weeks, the Eagles have allowed the 4th-fewest fantasy PPG to opposing QBs.

3. George Pickens is out again.

(per SI’s Michael Fabiano)

C.J. Stroud vs MIA: This one’s simple, Stroud has failed to score more than 16 points in seven straight games, and today he takes on a Dolphins D that’s allowed the 3rd-fewest fantasy PPG to opposing QBs, per Michael Fabiano.

Geno Smith vs GB: Smith has scored 15.7 fantasy points or less in each of his last four games, and the Packers have allowed just three QBs in their past nine games to score 20+ points, per Jamey Eisenberg.

😴 Sleepers:

Bryce Young vs DAL: Young ranks 9th in EPA per play and PFF passing grade over the past five weeks and is posting 16.4 fantasy PPG (that would be good for the QB16 on the season). Plus, he’ll take on a Dallas defense that’s allowing the 4th-most fantasy points to opposing QBs, per NBC Sports’ Kyle Dvorchak.

Aaron Rodgers @ JAX: Last week, Rodgers had his first 300-yard performance since 2021, and today he’ll face a Jags D that have allowed nine QBs to have a top-12 weekly finish this season, per NFL.com’s Marcas Grant.

Running Back

✅ Start ‘Em:

Rico Dowdle @ CAR: “Dowdle has completely taken over as Dallas’ workhorse, seeing 66-of-76 RB touches over the last three games. He gets a Panthers’ defense allowing 5.0 YPC and the most average rush attempts (27.8), rushing yards (138.6),TDs (1.4) and fantasy points to RBs this season.” — Dalton Del Don.

Brian Robinson Jr. @ NO: This should be a positive game script for the Commanders, as Saints QB Jake Haener will be making his first career start. Defensively, the Saints have allowed four RBs in their last five games to score at least 18.3 fantasy points. And for the season, 10 backs have scored at least 16.8 PPR points against them, per Jamey Eisenberg.

Zach Charbonnet vs GB: Ken Walker’s doubtful this week, and when he doesn’t play, Charb’s averaging 24.8 fantasy PPG. Plus, the Packers have allowed the most schedule-adjusted fantasy points to RBs over the last five weeks, per Dalton Del Don.

❌ Sit ‘Em:

Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren @ PHI: They’re splitting carries pretty evenly, which limits their upsides. Plus, the Eagles have allowed the 5th-fewest fantasy PPG to RBs, including the 8th-fewest rushing yards and just five rushing TDs to the position, per NFL.com’s Michael F. Florio.

Nick Chubb vs KC: Chubb is averaging just 3.1 yards per carry since rejoining the lineup, and no team has surrendered fewer PPR points to RBs this year than the Chiefs, per Bleacher Report’s Gary Davenport.

Isiah Pacheco @ CLE: Like Chubb, Pacheco’s still working his way back from an injury, too, and he’ll take on a Cleveland run D that’s significantly better at home than on the road. The Browns are allowing 150 rushing yards per game on the road (2nd-most in the NFL); but at home, they’re allowing just 102.2 rushing yards per game (7th-fewest), per USA Today’s Ayrton Ostly.

😴 Sleepers:

Sincere McCormick vs ATL: He’s continued running hard since getting his opportunities, as his 62.5% success rate on runs is excellent. HC Antonio Pierce also officially announced him as the team’s starter this week, so expect another RB1 workload for the guy with the best name in the biz.

Jaleel McLaughlin vs IND: “McLaughlin got his highest snap rate since Week 5 and a season-high percentage (64%) of team RB carries. If he can get that kind of usage again, he’ll have success against a Colts defense that, over the past four weeks, is allowing a league-high 32.7 fantasy PPG to RBs.” — NBC Sports’ Matthew Berry

Wide Receiver

✅ Start ‘Em:

Khalil Shakir @ DET: He’s blossomed into Josh Allen’s security blanket, scoring 11+ fantasy points in six of his last seven games, including two 19+ point performances. And today he’ll take on the Lions, who’ve allowed the 2nd-most yards and 5th-most fantasy PPG to receivers. They’ve also allowed over 1,000 yards to slot receivers (Shakir runs 62% of his routes from the slot), while no other team has allowed even 860 yards, per Michael F. Florio.

Jakobi Meyers vs ATL: Meyers has been a target hog lately, seeing 36 targets and catching 23 passes in his last three games. He’s now put up an average of 16 fantasy points in his last six games, and Atlanta has allowed the most fantasy PPG to WRs in the last eight weeks, per Michael Fabiano.

Jerry Jeudy vs KC: “Since the Browns made Winston the starter in Week 8, Jeudy (9.0) is WR8 in targets per game. The volume is insanely good. The results are even better. Jeudy has exploded as a legitimate WR1 in fantasy, turning his volume into 38/678/3 receiving (21.0 fantasy PPG – WR2). Jeudy has finished as a top-24 fantasy scorer among WRs in five straight games.” — FantasyPoints’ Graham Barfield

❌ Sit ‘Em:

Michael Pittman Jr. @ DEN: He’s too difficult to trust with the volatile Anthony Richardson under center. Pittman has found the end zone just twice all season and zero times in his last six games. He had at least five catches in Indy’s three games leading into the bye, but he only eclipsed 50 yards once in those three games, per Jack McKessy.

Tank Dell vs MIA: Dell has been held to single digits in three of his last four games and is averaging 9.3 points per game overall. He has a tough matchup, too, as he’ll face a Dolphins defense that’s allowed the 4th-fewest fantasy PPG to opposing WRs, per Michael Fabiano.

DeVonta Smith vs PIT: Ever since their Week 5 bye, the Eagles are averaging a league-low 21.8 pass attempts per game. Plus, Pittsburgh is tied for the 4th-fewest TDs allowed to WRs, and Smith has under 7.0 fantasy points in every game this season in which he hasn’t reached the end zone, per Matthew Berry.

😴 Sleepers:

Jaylen Waddle @ HOU: He might be too good to consider a sleeper, but nobody was starting him after his brutal start to the season. He’s rebounded nicely, though, surpassing 50 receiving yards in three straight games, with more than seven receptions in two of those three. Today he'll face a Texans secondary that has allowed the 6th-most fantasy points to receivers all season, 4th-most over the last four weeks, and 3rd-most over the last two, per USA Today’s Jack McKessy.

Nick Westbrook-Ikhine vs CIN: You might’ve dropped him after his unbelievable TD streak ended last week. But today, the Titans should be in a shootout against a Bengals defense that ranks 27th in the NFL against the pass, per Gary Davenport.

Tight End

✅ Start ‘Em:

Juwan Johnson vs WAS: He’s operating as the Saints’ No. 1 receiver, as he’s run a route on 79% of the team’s dropbacks over the past two weeks and has earned a team-high 18% target share, per Kyle Dvorchak. Expect him to be a security blanket for Haener.

Pat Freiermuth @ PHI: The Muth has caught a TD and topped 13 fantasy points in two straight games. George Pickens will be out again this week, and the Steelers will have to throw to keep up with Philly’s top-8 scoring offense, per Michael F. Florio, so Freiermuth should get plenty of looks.

Zach Ertz @ NO: Over the last eight games, Ertz leads the Commanders in targets (19% share) over Terry McLaurin (18%). In this span, he’s averaging 11.9 fantasy PPG, good for TE7, per Graham Barfield.

❌ Sit ‘Em:

Mark Andrews @ NYG: While he’s rebounded nicely from a slow start to the season, he’s still been fairly TD-dependent and difficult to trust. Especially this week, as he’ll take on a Giants D that’s allowed the 2nd-fewest PPR points to opposing TEs, per Gary Davenport.

Cade Otton @ LAC: Otton’s scoring just 6.5 fantasy PPG with a healthy Mike Evans, compared to 19.3 PPG without him. His matchup doesn’t look great either — so far this season, the Chargers have allowed just one TD on 99 TE targets, and since Week 5, only two TEs (Mark Andrews, Trey McBride) have put up 10+ fantasy points against them, per Matthew Berry.

Kyle Pitts @ LV: It’s over for Pitts. He has one game over 2.4 fantasy points in his past five and hasn’t topped nine points since Week 8. RIP.

😴 Sleepers:

Stone Smartt vs TB: Will Dissly is out, Ladd McConkey could be limited at best, and Tampa has allowed the 2nd-most targets (7.8) and receiving yards (70.5) to TEs this season, per Dalton Del Don.

Noah Gray @ CLE: Gray is 2nd in end zone targets and tied for the team lead with four receiving TDs. Today he’ll take on a Browns D that’s allowing the most fantasy PPG to TEs over the last month, per Marcas Grant.

BEST BETS 💰

2024 record: 25-17 (0-3 last week🤦‍♂️)

🥇 Bryce Young OVER 16.5 rushing yards (-113)

• He has at least 17 rushing yards in four straight games, and Dallas ranks 2nd in most rushing yards allowed to QBs this season, per FantasyPros’ Andrew Erickson.

🥈 Travis Kelce anytime TD (+130)

• Kelce is tied for 4th in the NFL in red zone targets and the Browns have allowed the 2nd-most red-zone targets to TEs this season, per Andrew Erickson.

🥉 Calvin Ridley OVER 66.5 receiving yards (-113)

• Ridley is coming off a 12-target game against Jacksonville, a game in which no other Titan had more than four targets. Ridley also has 20 targets over the last two games, and his 57% first-read rate was the highest in the NFL last week, per Sportsbook Review’s Mike Spector. Tennessee will have to throw to keep up with Cincinnati, so Ridley should get his opportunities to beat this line.

Disclaimer: Gambling should be enjoyed as a form of entertainment. Never gamble more than you can afford to lose.

POLL 📊

QUICK SLANTS 👀

📖 Read Dos and Don'ts for Fantasy Football Playoffs from ESPN’s Eric Karabell, where he discusses topics like blocking your opponents and not ignoring matchups.

📖 Read 13 Insights Fantasy Football Managers Need to Know Ahead of Week 15 from The Athletic’s Theo Gremminger.

🎙️ Listen to The 10 Biggest Fantasy Football Questions for Week 15 from the FantasyPros Fantasy Football Podcast.

📺 Watch the Minnesota Vikings secondary’s White Chicks-inspired celebration from last week. They absolutely CRUSHED it😂:

TWEET OF THE DAY

Good luck this week.

And remember: it’s the playoffs… anything can happen.

- Marcus