Good morning.

We hope you’re enjoying the last weekend before Christmas, and that you got off to a good start in your semi-final matchup.

In other words, we hope you didn’t have Joe Mixon…

But if you did, there’s still time to rebound. To help you out, we’ll dive into the starts, sits, and sleepers you need to consider to advance to the big game.🏆

Injury Report 🚑

Another One Bites the Dust

49ers RB Isaac Guerendo is OUT today with a hamstring injury, meaning the Niners will be down to their 5th-string RB.😳 Look for Patrick Taylor to get the bulk of the work for San Fran, with Israel Abanikanda and FB Kyle Juszczyk mixing in as well.

Here’s how other fantasy-relevant players are trending around the league:

👍 Expected to play:

• Tony Pollard

• Tyrone Tracy Jr.

• Braelon Allen

• Tyreek Hill

• David Moore

• Matt Gay

👎 Unlikely to play:

• Jaylen Waddle

🤷‍♂️ Gametime decision:

• Jalen Coker

• Curtis Samuel

• Marquez Valdes-Scantling

• David Njoku

• Zach Ertz

• Nick Folk

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STARTS & SITS 🧐

Quarterback

✅ Start ‘Em:

Kyler Murray @ CAR: The Panthers have given up the 6th-most fantasy PPG to QBs, allowing 27 passing TDs, which is tied for most in the NFL, per NFL.com’s Michael F. Florio. If they gave up three passing TDs and 19 fantasy points to Cooper Rush last week, then I’m sure Kyler could do the same.

Matthew Stafford @ NYJ: Stafford is averaging 18 fantasy PPG with four top-10 finishes since getting his receivers back. On the other side of the ball, the Jets rank 22nd in yards per attempt allowed and 30th in EPA per passing play conceded since firing Robert Saleh, per NBC Sports’ Kyle Dvorchak.

Aaron Rodgers vs LAR: He has at least 35 pass attempts in three of his last five games and multiple TDs in three of the last four. The veteran is coming off a 289 yard, 3 TD performance in a favorable matchup last week against the Jaguars and now takes on a Rams D allowing the 9th-most fantasy points to QBs, per FantasyLife’s Adam Ronis.

❌ Sit ‘Em:

Caleb Williams vs DET: The rookie ranks last among 34 qualified QBs in YPA (4.9) against man coverage this season, which the Lions have used at the league’s highest rate (42.3%), per Yahoo’s Dalton Del Don.

Brock Purdy @ MIA: Purdy has failed to throw for more than 160 yards in three of his past four games, and he has logged multiple TD passes in only two of his past seven, per ESPN’s Matt Bowen.

Tua Tagovailoa vs SF: He’s averaged just 13.3 fantasy PPG against upper-half defences, compared to 20.5 against bottom-half defences (five games each). Fade him against the 49ers, who are 6th in adjusted fantasy points allowed for the season and 5th over the past five weeks, having held 10 out of 14 opposing starters beneath 15 fantasy points, per ESPN’s Tristan H. Cockroft.

😴 Sleepers:

Cooper Rush vs TB: Rush has scored at least 18.4 fantasy points in three of his past five starts, and takes on a Tampa Bay defence that’s allowing the 2nd-most fantasy PPG to opposing QBs, per CBS Sports’ Jamey Eisenberg. Five of the past eight QBs against the Bucs have scored at least 25.6 fantasy points, so throw Rush in as your QB2 and hope he can do the same.

Michael Penix Jr. vs NYG: It’s risky starting a rookie in his NFL debut, but Penix has a loaded WR corps and faces a Giants team that has allowed the 10th-most fantasy points to opposing QBs, while being tied for 24th in net yards allowed per pass attempt, per Bleacher Report’s Maurice Moton.

Running Back

✅ Start ‘Em:

James Conner @ CAR: “Carolina has faced 30 more RB rush attempts than any other team. They are 361 rushing yards clear of the No. 31 team and are tied for a league-high in rushing TDs allowed. With backups Emari Demercado and Trey Benson out this week, Conner is eying a 25-touch game vs the worst defense in football.” — Kyle Dvorchak

Bucky Irving @ DAL: “He's also scored at least 15.4 PPR points in six of his past eight full games. This week, Irving is taking on a Dallas team that is No. 8 in most fantasy points allowed to opposing RBs. Three RBs in the past five games have scored at least 14.5 PPR points against the Cowboys, and Irving has top-15 upside in this matchup.” — Jamey Eisenberg

Jerome Ford @ CIN: Among 61 qualifying backs this season, Ford ranks 19th in explosive run rate and 11th in yards after contact per attempt. Plus, since Week 10, Cincy has allowed the 3rd-highest explosive run rate, the 11th-most rushing yards per game, and the 12th-most rushing TDs, per FantasyPros’ Derek Brown.

❌ Sit ‘Em:

Tyrone Tracy Jr. @ ATL: Since Week 10, Atlanta is allowing the 7th-lowest explosive run rate, the 4th-fewest rushing yards per game, and the 6th-lowest missed tackle rate, per Derek Brown. Add in the fact that Tracy’s been limited all week with an ankle injury, and it’s easy to see why you should fade him today.

Rhamondre Stevenson @ BUF: He’s been terrible in losses this year, and with the Patriots being two-TD underdogs today, you’d be better off looking for other options.

Travis Etienne & Tank Bisgby @ LV: Bigsby has cleared 13.2 fantasy points only twice this season (both prior to Week 8) and Etienne hasn't been much better, as the 12.5 fantasy points he delivered in Week 15 was his highest total since he did the same in Week 3, per ESPN’s Mike Clay. You’re better off just avoiding both of these guys.

😴 Sleepers:

Ameer Abdullah vs JAX: Sincere McCormick (now on IR) left last week’s game early, which opened the door for Abdullah to rack up seven receptions for 58 yards and one TD. You can hope for more of the same today, as Jacksonville has surrendered the 2nd-most receiving yards to RBs, per NFL.com’s Marcas Grant.

Tyler Allgeier vs NYG: On a short week, the Falcons may be more willing to split the rushing workload between their top two ball-carriers against a basement-dwelling opponent — the Giants have the 31st-ranked run defense and are tied for 4th in fantasy points allowed to RBs, per Maurice Moton.

Wide Receiver

✅ Start ‘Em:

Jakobi Meyers vs JAX: Meyers has seen the 2nd-most targets (45) and air yards (447) in the league over the last month. Also, his target rate has jumped to 25.5% vs man coverage this season, and Jacksonville has used man at the league’s 4th-highest rate (38.2%), while allowing the 3rd-most fantasy points to WRs this season, per Dalton Del Don.

Adam Thielen vs ARI: “Xavier Legette is likely out this week, and Jalen Coker has been limited in practice, so Thielen should be extra busy Sunday. The Cardinals have shut down outside receivers but have struggled to defend the slot, where they’ve allowed the 2nd-highest target rate (51%) this season. Thielen also ranks top 25 in fantasy points per route run against zone coverage, which Arizona has used at the league’s 10th-highest rate.” — Dalton Del Don

Jayden Reed vs NO: It’s hard to predict which Packers WR will actually catch passes every week, but we’re taking a stab at Reed today. The Saints have allowed the 5th-most WR fantasy points, per Mike Clay, and Reed should be lined up in the slot against New Orleans’ journeyman CB Ugo Amadi.

❌ Sit ‘Em:

Deebo Samuel @ MIA: He comes into Week 16 having scored 6.1 PPR points or less in five games in a row, and he hasn't scored a TD since Week 6. Don’t expect much to change today, as Miami has allowed the 4th-fewest fantasy points to opposing WRs, per Jamey Eisenberg.

Michael Pittman Jr. vs TEN: Pittman is averaging just 8.4 fantasy PPG in the nine full games he’s played with Anthony Richardson and has only hit double digits once. Meanwhile, the Titans have given up the 6th-fewest yards and just 11 TDs to WRs this season, per Michael F. Florio.

Amari Cooper vs NE: He played just 44% of snaps last week and saw a whopping ZERO targets. He’s just too volatile to trust in your lineup, even with the juicy matchup.

😴 Sleepers:

Jalen McMillan @ DAL: Among 107 qualifying WRs (min 25 routes), McMillan is 14th in separation and 9th in route win rate, per Derek Brown. You can feel comfortable starting the rookie this week against a soft Dallas D and with Cade Otton out for Tampa.

Rome Odunze vs DET: The rookie leads the league in end zone targets (7) since Thomas Brown took over play-calling duties, and he ranks 7th in air yards (484) over this span, per Fantasy Points’ Jake Tribbey. He’s worth a shot for desperate teams against a Lions defense that has 16 players on IR.

Tight End

✅ Start ‘Em:

Jonnu Smith vs SF: Jonnu’s now entered must-start territory, as he’s averaging 21.3 fantasy PPG over his last five games, hitting at least 13 points in each, with five receiving TDs.

Hunter Henry @ BUF: The ceiling isn’t huge, but Henry has earned at least 17% of the Patriots targets in six out of his last seven games, and Buffalo just got hammered for 7/111 receiving by Sam LaPorta last week, per Fantasy Points’ Graham Barfield.

David Njoku @ CIN (if he plays): Njoku has received 30(!!!) targets over his last two healthy games, and Cincinnati has allowed the 2nd-most fantasy PPG to TEs. Even with DTR getting the start over Jameis, the matchup is too good to pass up.

❌ Sit ‘Em:

T.J. Hockenson @ SEA: You can start him if you have to, but Hock’s been pretty mid this season. Since Week 9, he’s averaging 5.7 targets per game — that’s tied with Hunter Henry for 10th-most. By fantasy PPG, Hockenson (9.6) is merely the TE16, per Graham Barfield.

Grant Calcaterra @ WAS: Calcaterra isn’t seeing much volume in the Eagles passing game. Plus, the Commanders have allowed the 7th-fewest yards to TEs this season — and the 3rd-fewest since Week 11, per Michael F. Florio.

Jake Ferguson vs TB: A$AP Ferg has averaged just 4.3 fantasy points in his last four games, topping out at 6.2 points. Cooper Rush just isn’t targeting him, so neither should you.

😴 Sleepers:

Brenton Strange @ LV: He replaced the injured Evan Engram and caught 11 passes on 12 targets for 73 yards last week. While we can’t expect those numbers again, Strange gets a good matchup against the Raiders, who allow the 4th-most fantasy points to TEs, per Adam Ronis.

Mike Gesicki vs CLE: He’s been struggling now that Tee Higgins is back in the lineup, but the TE position is bleak, and the Browns have allowed the most fantasy PPG to the position while surrendering TDs in consecutive weeks, per Marcas Grant. If you’re out of better options, throw in Gesicki and hope he finds the end zone.

POLL 📊

BEST BETS 💰

2024 record: 25-20 (0-3 last week🤦‍♂️)

🥇 LA Rams -3 @ NY Jets (-105)

• The Rams are 4-0 against the spread in their last four road games, while the Jets are 0-4 ATS as underdogs and have failed to cover the spread in six of their last seven games against teams with winning records, per FantasyPros’ Andrew Erickson.

🥈 Jaxon Smith-Njigba OVER 63.5 receiving yards (-133)

• The Vikings have allowed the most targets, receptions and receiving yards to WRs this year, as well as the 4th-most completions and 3rd-most yards to the slot, which is where JSN has lived, per ESPN’s Daniel Dopp.

🥉 Drake Maye OVER 204.5 passing yards (-113)

• The rookie has been over this mark in three of his last four games, with the fourth being a 202 yard performance in Arizona last week. He and the Patriots are 14.5-point underdogs today, which means he’ll likely be throwing from behind and racking up garbage time passing stats.

Disclaimer: Gambling should be enjoyed as a form of entertainment. Never gamble more than you can afford to lose.

QUICK SLANTS 👀

📖 Read Binge, Stream, Skip: Week 16 Fantasy Football from Yahoo’s Matt Harmon, where he breaks down the key matchups of the day and which players to watch.

📖 Read Mike McClure of CBS Sports’ Week 16 DFS Plays, where the Daily Fantasy millionaire shares his top NFL daily fantasy football picks for the Week 16 NFL schedule on Sunday.

📖 Read Hansen’s Hints: 2024 NFL Week 16 from Fantasy Points’ John Hansen, where he dives into each matchup today, identifying key matchups to exploit.

🎙️ Listen to J.J. Zachariason’s most recent Late-Round Perspectives episode with PFF’s Nathan Jahnke for an in-depth conversation about PFF’s processes and how Jahnke finds an edge in fantasy football.

📺 Watch this clip from Jon Gruden’s interview on Bussin’ With The Boys, where he talks about coaching two of the biggest basket cases in NFL history, Antonio Brown and Richie Incognito:

TWEET OF THE DAY

ICYMI: Jets owner Woody Johnson allegedly nixed a trade for Jerry Jeudy because his Madden rating was too low…😅

Good luck today.

Hope to see you next week on your way to a championship.✊

- Marcus