Good morning.

The holidays are a time for many things — spending time with friends and family, eating and drinking way more than you should, and of course… obsessing over fantasy football.

Listening to your drunk uncle argue about politics is a whole lot easier when you’ve got a fantasy football championship on the line, so let’s dive into some insights to help you get that W this week.

MARKET TRENDS 🧐

Running Back

📈 Stock up: Jahmyr Gibbs. This one’s obvious, but the Lions RB is going to win people some championships after the injury to David Montgomery. In three games without Montgomery this season, Gibbs’ rushing lines have been:

• 18 carries, 82 yards, 0 TDs

• 20 carries, 126 yards, 1 TD

• 31 carries, 189 yards, 1 TD

📉 Stock down: Tyrone Tracy Jr. The rookie carried the ball just 10 times for 31 yards last week, while Devin Singletary ran it eight times for 25 yards and one TD. Tracy still out-snapped Singletary (68% to 34%), but losing out on any work in a lackluster offense like this severely lowers his floor.

📈 Stock up: Kendre Miller. The severity of Alvin Kamara’s groin injury remains unknown, but regardless, Miller’s impressed in his limited opportunities. He ranks top-10 in PFF rushing grade (86.4) and YAC/attempt (3.71), and is also top-5 in elusiveness rating (136.2) this season. He has 11 broken tackles on just 28 rushing attempts and 104 of his 130 rushing yards have come after contact, per David J. Gautieri. He’s a strong FLEX option if Kamara sits this week.

📉 Stock down: Rhamondre Stevenson. He’s clearly the lead back in New England, but all five of his top-15 performances came in games where New England either won or lost by one possession. Unfortunately for Rhamondre managers, the team will likely lean more on passing downs back Antonio Gibson against the 11-3 Bills this week and the 8-6 Chargers in Week 17.

📈 Stock up: Rico Dowdle. He’s averaging 119.5 rushing YPG and 15.8 fantasy PPG on a 70.9% snap share over his last four games. Those marks would rank 2nd, 14th, and 9th-best among RBs this season, per Fantasy Points’ Scott Barrett. He’s likely to come back to Earth in potentially negative game scripts against the Bucs and Eagles, but he’s still a solid RB2 option in your fantasy playoffs.

Wide Receiver

📈 Stock up: Jalen Coker. The rookie returned to the lineup last week and exploded for 110 yards and one TD on four receptions. He played the highest snap rate of any Panthers WR at 87%, ran the 2nd-most routes, and when you consider that three of his targets were negated by penalties, he essentially led the team in targets with nine, per FantasyPros’ Andrew Erickson. He’s a sneaky sleeper with soft matchups coming up against Arizona and Tampa Bay.

📉 Stock down: Jerry Jeudy. With Jameis Winston at QB, Jeudy shot up to 5th among WRs in receiving yards. But with the Browns giving the reigns to Dorian Thompson-Robinson, expect Jeudy to revert back to his Denver self. DTR has mostly just played in mop-up duty, but his numbers aren’t pretty. Here’s how he ranks among 89 active QBs with 100+ pass attempts…

• Completion rate: 88th

• Yards per attempt: 89th

• TD rate: 89th

• INT rate: 84th

• Adjusted yards per attempt: 88th

• Passer rating: 88th

(per DraftSharks’ Jared Smola)

📈 Stock up: Brian Thomas Jr. In the last four games, BTJ has averaged over 20 PPR points, a 30% target share, a 40% air yards share, and 87+ receiving yards per game, per Andrew Erickson. He’s proven to be QB-proof, earning double-digit targets and finishing among the top-20 WRs each of the last three weeks.

📉 Stock down: Jayden Reed. From Weeks 1-9, Reed was the WR6 overall. But from Weeks 10-15, he’s been the WR48. Since he only plays roughly 1/3 of the team’s snaps, he’ll be difficult to trust in the fantasy playoffs, even with a soft matchup against the Saints.

📈 Stock up: Jalen McMillan. The rookie has back-to-back top-20 performances and is averaging 13.8 fantasy PPG in games where he’s featured as a top-2 or 3 option in Tampa’s passing game, per ESPN’s Liz Loza. His next opponent — the Cowboys — have allowed the 7th-most fantasy points to WRs over their last four outings, making McMillan a reasonable streamer.

📉 Stock down: Deebo Samuel. Since Week 11, he hasn't had more than 22 receiving yards in a game and hasn't scored more than 6.1 PPR points in a game, either. You aren’t crazy if you decide to bench him.

QB / TE

📈 Stock up: Falcons passing game with Michael Penix Jr. Kirk Cousins has thrown nine picks over the past five games and leads the NFL with 16 total INTs this season. So it can’t get much worse. An opening matchup against the Giants — who are top-10 in most fantasy PPG allowed to opposing QBs — should be a nice start for the rookie and his pass-catchers.

📉 Stock down: Justin Herbert. In the seven games he’s been playing through an ankle issue, Herbert has averaged just 11.3 fantasy PPG, per FantasyLife’s Dwain McFarland. You can bench him this week against a tough Denver defense.

📈 Stock up: Jayden Daniels. When removing Weeks 7-11, where he was plagued by rib/hand injuries, Daniels has surpassed 20.5 fantasy points in eight of his nine games, averaging 25.2 fantasy PPG (QB3). That puts him right up there with Lamar Jackson (26.5), Josh Allen (25.6), and Jalen Hurts (23.3), per Scott Barrett.

📈 Stock up: Jonnu Smith. He’s the TE1 in PPG since Miami’s bye in Week 6, averaging 16.9 fantasy PPG – more than Brock Bowers, Trey McBride, and George Kittle, per David J. Gautieri. He’s a potential league-winner at an extremely thin position, as he’s had 11+ targets in three of his last four games and has the 10th most fantasy points scored overall (QBs included) since Week 11, per Joe Orrico.

📉 Stock down: Jake Ferguson. Even with Cooper Rush playing well as of late, Fergalicious has only caught 10 passes for 90 yards and no TDs in his last four games – posting weekly totals of 6.4, 3.1, 6.4, and 4.3. You’re better off streaming someone like Brenton Strange, who earned an impressive 12 targets with Evan Engram on IR.

📈 Stock up: Chig Okonkwo. Mason Rudolph was named the starter over Will Levis, and since his first start in Week 7, Rudolph is averaging 39.1 pass attempts per game and 265.7 passing YPG, representing a +51% and +53% improvement upon Will Levis’ numbers this season, per Scott Barrett. That should be a boost for the entire Titans passing game, but especially for Chig, who has been Rudolph’s 2nd-most targeted receiver this year.

POLL 📊

QUICK SLANTS 👀

📖 Read Sean Barnard of DraftKings’ TNF DFS Value Plays for those of you looking to get in some DFS lineups for tonight’s game.

📖 Read Fantasy Football Fact or Fluke from Yahoo’s Renee Miller, where she examines some of the potential high-scoring matchups around the NFL this week and suggests some players to start or sit based on those likely outcomes.

📖 Read Dwain McFarland of FantasyLife’s Week 16 Risers and Fallers, where he uses data to help him decide who to move up and who to move down in his rankings.

🎙️ Listen to Fantasy Playoff Hot Takes & Risers from Scott Barrett of Fantasy Points’ School of Scott podcast.

📺 Watch the guys at Pardon My Take talk about the origins of the “Witching Hour” phrase used by Scott Hanson on NFL Red Zone.

TWEET OF THE DAY

Enjoy Broncos vs Chargers. And remember to take your TNF players out of the FLEX spot.

See you Sunday.

- Marcus