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- 🏈 Jerome Ford & Week 16 Waivers
🏈 Jerome Ford & Week 16 Waivers
Players to add -- including deeeeep dives -- ahead of the 2nd round of the fantasy football playoffs.
Good morning.
Congrats! If you’re still reading fantasy football newsletters, I’m assuming you’ve advanced to the 2nd round of your playoffs. If not, you need some help…
But regardless, we appreciate you choosing to spend part of your morning routine with us, and we’d like to repay you with some waiver wire insight.
Today's newsletter highlights:
🎯 Waiver Wire Targets
🤿 Deeeeep Dives
🤔 Matchups or No Matchups?
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WAIVER WIRE 🧐
Running Back
Jerome Ford // Bleacher Report
With injuries to big-name backs like Nick Chubb, David Montgomery, and Alvin Kamara, the RB waiver wire is more alive than it’s been all season.
Browns RB Jerome Ford (43%) will be the lead dawg in Cleveland once again after Nick Chubb broke his foot. Ford is a burner, as he’s responsible for the three fastest speeds by a Browns ball carrier over the last five seasons, per Next Gen Stats, including a 21.7 MPH burst for a 62-yard TD on Sunday.
You can empty the bank account for Ford this week, as he’s averaging a career-best 5.2 YPC on the year and is up to 32 receptions on 38 targets. He’ll be a solid RB2 in a high-scoring matchup against Cincinnati.
Dude, Jerome Ford is fast
— The Sports Geek (@TheSports_Geek)
8:21 PM • Dec 15, 2024
Titans RB Tyjae Spears (47%) was breaking ankles Sunday afternoon, en route to 92 scrimmage yards and two TDs on four carries and six receptions. Tony Pollard’s still battling an ankle injury, so expect Spears to continue getting valuable looks — especially in the passing game.
Saints RB Kendre Miller (16%) would be the next man up in New Orleans if Alvin Kamara is to miss time with his groin injury. With Kamara getting banged up on Sunday, Miller led the backfield in snaps, out-snapping Jamaal Williams 26 to six while running 11 more routes, per PFF. His ceiling is limited given how bad the Saints are offensively, but a starting RB is a starting RB.
Saints interim HC Darren Rizzi was very complimentary of Kendre Miller after he stepped in for Alvin Kamara yesterday.
This vs. how Dennis Allen handled Miller's injury/mental struggles is pretty revealing.
Via @CoachspeakIndex's Discord (which you should go subscribe to!)
— Ryan Heath (@RyanJ_Heath)
9:37 PM • Dec 16, 2024
Jets RB Isaiah Davis (30%) filled in well for the injured Braelon Allen, who left the game in the 2nd quarter with a back injury. Breece Hall has been battling injuries of his own this year, so it wouldn’t be surprising to see the Jets be cautious and let Davis show what he’s got during these final meaningless games. Davis has especially shown promise in the receiving game, catching seven of 10 targets for 57 yards over the last three weeks.
Chargers RB Kimani Vidal (21%) played 35 snaps on Sunday, while Gus Edwards and Hassan Haskins combined to play just 15, per J.J. Zachariason. Although that looks intriguing on the surface, Vidal only had five total touches for 22 yards. With a tough matchup against Denver this week and J.K. Dobbins potentially returning the week after, you might be better off spending your FAAB elsewhere.
Bills RB Ty Johnson (4%) might’ve gotten your attention with back-to-back double-digit fantasy point performances, but hold your horses. Buffalo uses him mostly in the hurry-up game and obvious passing situations, which they found themselves in often in their shootouts against the Rams and Lions the last two weeks. That won’t be the case when they take on the lowly Patriots and Jets next.
As always, be on the lookout for top tier handcuffs as well:
Tyler Allgeier, ATL (40%)
Justice Hill, BAL (28%)
Blake Corum, LAR (22%)
Ray Davis, BUF (22%)
Wide Receiver
Jalen McMillan // The Pewter Plank
Bucs WR Jalen McMillan (15%) has put up a total of 40.4 fantasy points over the last two weeks, while running the same number of routes as Mike Evans.👀 He’s the clear No. 2 option for Tampa, who have one of the softer end of season schedules (DAL, CAR, NO).
Packers WR Romeo Doubs (53%) is a boring, but fairly steady fill-in option if he’s available. He won’t have two TDs every game like he did last week, but he’s routinely playing 75%+ of snaps in one of the league’s better offenses.
Chargers WR Quentin Johnston (57%) now has eight receiving TDs on the year (T-5th) and has been especially hot the last two weeks, scoring a total of 31.3 fantasy points with a TD in each game. His season-high 10 targets on Sunday were a nice departure from his typical low-target, high-efficiency profile.
Ravens WR Rashod Bateman (29%) caught two TDs on Sunday to go along with 80 receiving yards. He’s a boom-or-bust target, but his end of season schedule is pretty favorable — since Week 9, Pittsburgh and Cleveland have respectively allowed the 4th-most and 10th-most PPR points per target to perimeter WRs, per FantasyPros’ Pat Fizmaurice.
Browns WR Cedric Tillman (47%) has been an afterthought lately after missing the last three games with a concussion. But if he returns this week, he could be a viable FLEX option — since Week 9, Cincinnati has allowed the 4th-most fantasy PPG to perimeter WRs, per Pat Fizmaurice.
QB & TE
Aaron Rodgers // The New Yorker
Jets QB Aaron Rodgers (38%) has turned back the clock recently, putting up 17+ points in two straight games, including a 30-burger in Jacksonville on Sunday. You should be able to ride the hot hand for another week, as A-Rod will take on the Rams, who are allowing the 8th-most fantasy PPG to opposing QBs.
Patriots QB Drake Maye (24%) has topped 20 fantasy points in six of his nine starts this season, showing promise as both a passer and a runner. Unfortunately, he finishes with a tough schedule, though (BUF, LAC).
Cowboys QB Cooper Rush (11%) proved he can exploit a soft matchup, throwing for three TDs and zero INTs against Carolina last week. He’s a fine 2QB league streamer again this week, as the Bucs have allowed the most fantasy PPG to opposing QBs this season.
Jags TE Brenton Strange (7%) led all TEs in Week 15 with 11 catches on 12 targets with Evan Engram now on IR. The PPR-monster will take on the Raiders next week, who have the 4th-most TE fantasy points allowed, per ESPN’s Eric Moody.
Brenton Strange averages 10.9 PPG in games without Evan Engram (Weeks 2-5, 15).
10.9 PPG would be the TE8 in 2024 just ahead of Mark Andrews and Tucker Kraft
— Ron Stewart (@RonStewart_)
3:33 PM • Dec 16, 2024
Chargers TE Stone Smartt (6%) drew six targets on Sunday, catching five for 50 yards. He’s an undersized TE, but is an explosive athlete with a 98th percentile burst score, per PlayerProfiler. If Will Dissly (shoulder) continues to miss time, Smartt could be a streaming option in all formats.
Titans TE Chig Okonkwo (7%) “is coming off a season-high eight catches on 10 targets. Now now he has a matchup against a Colts defense that has been one of the league’s worst against fantasy TEs. He’s only recorded more than 9.5 fantasy points twice all season, but both of those games have come within the last four weeks.” — NFL.com’s Dan Parr
D/ST
Indianapolis Colts // Stampede Blue
The Indianapolis Colts (15%) take on the Tennessee Titans, who give up 2.1 turnovers per game (most in the league), and could be benching Will Levis for Mason Rudolph. Indy already does a great job of generating turnovers, racking up 1.5 per game (8th-most), per FanDuel’s Riley Thomas, so expect them to get after Tennessee on Sunday.
The Atlanta Falcons (34%) shut down the Raiders offense last night, yet they might have an even easier matchup this week against the New York Giants. Big Blue has the 4th-worst schedule-adjusted offense, per Riley Thomas, and could be starting Tim Boyle.🤮
The Cincinnati Bengals (26%) have been garbage on defense this season. But in Week 16, they’ll either take on Jameis Winston, who’s thrown 12 INTs in seven starts, or Dorian Thompson-Robinson, who’s started just three games in his brief NFL career and has a 1-to-7 career TD-to-INT ratio.
DEEP DIVES 🤿
Lion Kings
Craig Reynolds // The Mercury
Stash these players on your bench before they blow up. Last week, the perfect pickup was Kendre Miller.
Lions RB Craig Reynolds (0%) should get first dibs on filling in for David Montgomery, who will be out for the season with a knee injury. Reynolds is a 5-year vet who’s performed fairly well in small sample sizes, averaging over four YPC in each season of his career. When commenting on Jahmyr Gibbs’ projected workload now, HC Dan Campbell said “We still gotta be able to be smart with him,” which suggests Reynolds could get a fair share of carries.
Lions RB Sione Vaki (0%) is likely to see some opportunities, too. Being a rookie, though, he should take a backseat to Reynolds, but those in super-deep leagues should stash him in case he pops.
Lions rookie Round 4 RB Sione Vaki:
14 preseason touches on offense. He's a good football player. x.com/i/web/status/1…
— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23)
4:24 PM • Aug 26, 2024
Lions WR Tim Patrick (6%) “crossed the goal-line again on Sunday, giving him three TDs in his last two games. He’s also caught 10 passes on 15 targets over the past two weeks, so it’s not as if the fantasy output is unusually fluky.” — Yahoo’s Andy Behrens
Panthers WR Jalen Coker (4%) is back on the fantasy radar after his 4/110/1 performance on Sunday, including an 83-yard TD. He now has three double-digit games this season and has been targeted six or more times by Bryce Young in three of their last four games together, per Dan Parr.
Chiefs QB Carson Wentz (0%) is likely to get the start for KC this week, as Patrick Mahomes is considered “week-to-week” while he deals with a mild high-ankle sprain. Wentz mostly sucks, but he does offer some rushing upside for those of you that are desperate in a 2QB format.
POLL 📊
I'm a huge proponent for no matchups once the playoffs are here. Top scores advance. Zero reason to get booted with second-highest score simply bc of the matchup and randomness of football
— Jake Ciely (@allinkid)
12:48 AM • Dec 16, 2024
How do you feel about no matchups in the playoffs? (top scores advance) |
QUICK SLANTS 👀
📖 Read Heath Cummings of CBS Sports’ Fantasy Football Risers and Fallers after Week 15, where he discusses the biggest takeaways from last week’s action and how they impact players’ fantasy stocks.
📖 Read Nathan Jahnke of PFF’s 10 Biggest Reactions to Week 15 for key player usage and stats to help you as you progress through your fantasy playoffs.
📖 Read Jordan Woodson’s Fantasy Football Heat Index, where he looks at breakout performances from the weekend and ranks them from 1-5 based on whether he believes they are momentary or long-term options for your fantasy teams.
🎙️ Listen to Beyond the Box Score from CBS Sports’ Fantasy Football Today Podcast, where Adam Aizer, Jacob Gibbs, and Dan Schneier discuss whether or not we can trust Kyler, Tua, Kupp, and any Seahawks.
📺 Watch Tom Moore: Quarterback Whisperer from NFL Films. Moore is a legend in the NFL, having coached some of the best QBs of all time, like Terry Bradshaw, Peyton Manning, Carson Palmer, Tom Brady, and now Baker Mayfield.
TWEET OF THE DAY
My fantasy team the week before the fantasy football playoffs
— Dave Heilman NFL (@DynastyDorks)
3:21 PM • Dec 16, 2024
Before we go, send your well wishes to Randy Moss, who revealed he’s being treated for cancer.🙏 The legendary WR reportedly underwent a successful surgery and plans to Moss cancer like he did so many poor DBs throughout his career.
You can go to https://randymoss.com/ to purchase merch (with proceeds going to cancer research).
See you Thursday.
- Marcus
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