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Good morning.

Hope Santa was good to everyone! I must’ve been on the naughty list, because he left a Nico Collins 8.9-point lump of coal in my stocking to kick off my Championship matchup.😒

The only thing worse would’ve been starting Caleb Williams.😬 Poor Bears fans…

You may have noticed we’re coming at you a day early. Well, that’s because we finally put down the eggnog and realized we have three games today! With the Championship on the line, we know you’ll need all the insight you can get to help with those make-or-break decisions.🏆

…Sadly, though, this will be our final newsletter of the 2024 fantasy football season. From the bottom of our hearts, we truly appreciate you making us a part of your morning routine 3x/week. We’re going to miss you.

We’ll soon be turning our sights toward 2025, and with that being said, we’d really like to hear how you think we could make the Morning Huddle even better. So if you have a couple minutes to spare, please fill out our year-end survey HERE.

Injury Report 🚑

Jalen’s Hurt

Eagles QB Jalen Hurts is officially OUT this week, meaning Kenny Pickett will get the start for Philly against a soft Cowboys defense. While this could mean a drop in efficiency, Pickett did force-feed 15 targets to A.J. Brown last week.👀

Here’s how other fantasy-relevant players are trending (as always, be sure to check the latest reports ahead of kickoff)…

👍 Expected to play:

• Tua Tagovailoa

• James Conner

• Chuba Hubbard

• J.K. Dobbins

• Isaac Guerendo

• Tyreek Hill

• Davante Adams

• Tee Higgins

• Malik Nabers

• Jaylen Waddle

• Xavier Legette

👎 Unlikely to play:

• Anthony Richardson

🤷‍♂️ Gametime decision:

• Tony Pollard

• Trey Benson

• Chris Olave

• Christian Watson

• Marquez Valdes-Scantling

• Curtis Samuel

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STARTS & SITS 🧐

Quarterback

✅ Start ‘Em:

Bo Nix @ CIN: The Bengals have allowed the 6th-most fantasy points to opposing QBs, giving up an average of 22.7 fantasy PPG to the position. Five quarterbacks this season have scored at least 28.4 points against them, and Nix has scored at least 23.4 points in three of his past five games, per CBS Sports’ Jamey Eisenberg.

Baker Mayfield vs CAR: The Panthers have surrendered a league-high 28 passing TDs entering the week, and opposing passers have scored the 6th-most fantasy points against their defense this season, per Sharp Football Analysis’ Curtis Hirsch.

Brock Purdy vs DET: The Lions’ injury-ravaged defense has allowed the 3rd-most passing yards and eight passing TDs since Week 12, while allowing the most fantasy PPG to opposing QBs over the last month, per NFL.com’s Michael F. Florio.

❌ Sit ‘Em:

Jared Goff @ SF: The 49ers have allowed the fewest passing fantasy PPG this season, per Curtis Hirsch, and there’s a chance the Lions could set their sights beyond this game and toward Week 18 — if the Vikings win on Sunday, the result of Monday’s Lions vs 49ers matchup becomes inconsequential, as Detroit’s Week 18 showdown with the Vikings would determine the conference champion.

Kyler Murray @ LAR: The Rams have allowed fewer than 10 points in back-to-back games and just six passing TDs since Week 12 (5th-fewest in the league). Murray, meanwhile, has just five passing scores in his last seven games overall, and one or fewer in four of his five most recent games against the Rams, per Michael F. Florio.

Matthew Stafford vs ARI: The Rams have morphed into one of the most run-heavy teams over the last month, throwing the ball at the 2nd-lowest rate in this span. After he was averaging 35 pass attempts per game in Weeks 1-12, Stafford hasn’t topped 30 attempts in each of his last four outings. Plus, the Cardinals are limiting opposing QBs to -1.9 schedule adjusted fantasy PPG below average over the last 10 weeks (6th-fewest), per Fantasy Points’ Graham Barfield.

😴 Sleepers:

Bryce Young @ TB: Since Carolina’s Week 11 bye, Young is 14th in EPA per play and 12th in completion percentage over expected. He’s averaging 19.8 fantasy PPG during that five-week stretch and gets a matchup with a pass-funnel Bucs D that’s 8th in run defense, but 22nd in EPA per dropback allowed. This has led to them facing the 2nd-highest pass rate over expected this season, per NBC Sports’ Kyle Dvorchak.

Mason Rudolph @ JAX: “Jacksonville has given up the most fantasy points to opposing QBs while allowing 10 different QBs to finish top-12 at the position this season. Given that Rudolph has scored over 16.5 fantasy points in four of his five starts this season, he could be a QB2 option in deeper leagues.” — Roto Baller’s Joey Pollizze

Running Back

✅ Start ‘Em:

Bucky Irving vs CAR: “He's now scored at least 17.7 fantasy points in four of his past six games, with only one game below 13.3 points over that span. He faced the Panthers in Week 13 and had 25 carries for 152 yards and a TD and three catches for 33 yards on three targets, and Carolina is No. 1 in most fantasy points allowed to opposing RBs.” — Jamey Eisenberg

J.K. Dobbins @ NE: He was activated off IR this week, and teammate Gus Edwards was ruled out, meaning it should be Dobbins and rookie Kimani Vidal leading the charge for LA. Meanwhile, the Patriots rank 21st in EPA per rush attempt allowed and have given up the 7th-most points to opposing RBs, per Kyle Dvorchak.

Javonte Williams @ CIN: Since Week 11, Cincy has allowed the 11th-most rushing yards per game, the 2nd-highest explosive run rate, and the 8th-highest yards after contact per attempt, per FantasyPros’ Derek Brown.

❌ Sit ‘Em:

Travis Etienne and Tank Bigsby vs TEN: As always, avoid this backfield at all costs. Bigsby has rushed for just 175 yards (3.7 YPC) over the last month, while Etienne hasn’t scored a TD since Week 2.

Rhamondre Stevenson vs LAC: The Chargers have given up the 9th-fewest fantasy points to RBs this season, and Stevenson has done next to nothing in New England losses:

Kendre Miller vs LV: Alvin Kamara’s out again, but don’t get too excited — New Orleans split their RB snaps three ways last week, with Miller (44%) barely leading the way over Jamaal Williams (35%) and Jordan Mims (26%) in the 1st and 2nd quarter of their blowout loss to the Packers, per Graham Barfield.

😴 Sleepers:

Tyjae Spears @ JAX: Tony Pollard didn’t practice all week, meaning he’ll likely be inactive — or at the very least active, but limited. Which means Spears should get plenty of opportunities both on the ground and through the air against a Jags defense allowing the 2nd-most fantasy points to opposing RBs this season, per Curtis Hirsch.

Alexander Mattison @ NO: While Ameer Abdullah will mix in — especially in the passing game — Mattison is still the main runner for Vegas. And this week he’ll take on a Saints defense allowing 4.5 yards per rush, nine TDs and the 10th-most fantasy points to opposing RBs since Week 9, per SI’s Michael Fabiano.

Wide Receiver

✅ Start ‘Em:

Jordan Addison vs GB: “In his past six games, Addison has earned a 28% target share and a 34% air yards share. Both marks narrowly trail Justin Jefferson. With a 48.5 total and a spread of just one point, the Vikings’ matchup with Green Bay has shootout written all over it, putting Addison in a phenomenal spot to close out the fantasy season.” — Kyle Dvorchak

Jayden Reed @ MIN: It’s always tough to advocate for a Green Bay WR, but Reed’s set up nicely this week. There’s a chance Christian Watson misses this game, and when the Packers played the Vikings back in Week 4, Reed went off with seven catches for 139 yards and a TD. The Vikings also deploy zone coverage at a top-6 rate (75.4%), and Reed ranks 3rd in yards per route run against zone, behind only Puka Nacua and Ja'Marr Chase (per Fantasy Points Data).

Josh Downs @ NYG: We’re assuming Joe Flacco will be starting here, and in his four starts with Flacco under center, Downs averaged 8.2 catchable targets per game. For reference, this would be 3rd-most if he sustained that volume over the course of the season. Downs also earned a team-high 28% of the Colts’ targets while averaging 15.4 fantasy PPG in his four starts with Flacco this season. By comparison, Downs is averaging just 10.7 fantasy PPG in seven starts with Richardson, per Graham Barfield.

❌ Sit ‘Em:

Jerry Jeudy vs MIA: His hot streak came to a crashing halt once Dorian Thompson-Robinson was named Cleveland’s starter. Jeudy went from scoring at least 12.9 fantasy points for seven games in a row (including three 21+ point outings), to catching two balls for 20 yards against the Bengals last week. DTR is expected to start again — and the Dolphins are allowing the 5th-fewest points to opposing WRs — so Jeudy is better left on your bench.

Jameson Williams @ SF: The 49ers have allowed the fewest fantasy points to WRs this season, as well as the fewest yards per game to perimeter WRs and the fewest receptions AND yards on deep passes, per NBC Sports’ Matthew Berry.

Tee Higgins vs DEN: “The Broncos have allowed just one TD to WRs in the last four weeks and the 3rd-fewest EPA on dropbacks since Week 12. Denver is also trying to hold off Cincinnati for a playoff spot, so it will be looking to do all it can to shut down the Bengals' passing attack.” — USA Today’s Jack McKessy

😴 Sleepers:

Jalen McMillan vs CAR: From Weeks 14-16, McMillan has averaged a 26.4% air yards share, 20.6% target share, and 19 fantasy PPG with four receiving TDs, per Joe Orrico. Cade Otton and Sterling Shepard are both out this week, so expect targets to be consolidated around McMillan, Mike Evans, and the RBs.

Kayshon Boutte vs LAC: “He’s seen at least six targets in six of his last eight games, and he’s also been the first read among Patriots WRs 19.7% of the time since Week 11. The Chargers have also allowed the 3rd-most points to perimeter receivers since Week 9.” — Michael Fabiano

Tight End

✅ Start ‘Em:

Chig Okonkwo @ JAX: Chig has 21 targets over his last two games, catching 17 of them for 140 yards and scoring 13.9 and 19.1 fantasy points, respectively, in those games (both were top-7 TE finishes). Okonkwo was the first read on 32% of the Titans' dropbacks last week, and tomorrow he’ll face a Jaguars defense that has allowed the 7th-most yards and rank top-10 in most fantasy PPG allowed to TEs, per Michael F. Florio.

Hunter Henry vs LAC: The veteran TE has averaged 11.1 fantasy PPG since Drake Maye took over in Week 6, with just two games under nine fantasy points in that stretch. His floor is as safe as they come.

T.J. Hockenson vs GB: He flopped last week, but we’re hoping for a bounce-back here. With an over/under set at 48.5, you want pieces of this game in your lineup. Plus, the Packers are tied for the 9th-most fantasy PPG allowed to TEs, per USA Today’s Tom Viera.

❌ Sit ‘Em:

Dalton Kincaid vs NYJ: Kincaid has played under 50% of the team's offensive snaps in back-to-back weeks, and the Jets have given up the 10th-fewest fantasy points to opposing TEs this season, and only four scoring double-digits against them, per Joey Pollizze.

Jake Ferguson @ PHI: He could be more like Turd Ferguson this week, as the Eagles have allowed the 6th-fewest fantasy PPG to opposing TEs, as well as the 3rd-fewest passing yards per game overall, per Tom Viera.

Will Dissly @ NE: He’s healthy this week and back in the lineup, but expect him to split time now that Hayden Hurst is back and Stone Smartt has flashed over the last few weeks.

😴 Sleepers:

Foster Moreau vs LV: The Raiders have allowed the 5th-most fantasy points to opposing TEs, per Bleacher Report’s Maurice Moton. And Moreau has performed well as of late, catching eight of his nine targets for 112 yards and a TD over the last three weeks, edging out teammate and fellow TE Juwan Johnson (8/89/1). Moreau is also tied with MVS for a team-leading four TD receptions, so pray for another one this week.

Daniel Bellinger vs IND: This is a real deep cut, but the Colts allow the 2nd-most fantasy points to TEs, and over the last three weeks, they've allowed three TDs to players at that position, per Maurice Moton. Chig Okonkwo had his best outing of the season against them last week, catching nine passes for 81 yards.

POLL 📊

BEST BETS 💰

2024 record: 28-20 (3-0 last week)

🥇 Jordan Love OVER 248.5 passing yards (-113)

🥈 Chase Brown OVER 28.5 receiving yards (-113)

• Brown has over 50 receiving yards in three of his last six games and should do the same today. Ja’Marr Chase draws a tough matchup with Pat Surtain, which should mean more involvement from other pass catchers. The Broncos also pressure the QB and blitz often, both of which set up for dropoffs and screens, per VSiN’s Mike Somich.

🥉 Chargers @ Patriots UNDER 42.5 total points (-104)

• “I expect a hefty dose of the run game from L.A. here, with the goal to be shortening the game, forcing Drake Maye to be hyper efficient on all his drives and getting out of Dodge with a win, no matter how ugly it might get. Long, sustained drives should kep this matchup in the 30s.” — CBS Sports’ Will Brinson

Disclaimer: Gambling should be enjoyed as a form of entertainment. Never gamble more than you can afford to lose.

QUICK SLANTS 👀

📖 Read Mike Clay of ESPN’s Fantasy Playbook for Week 17 scores, projections, matchups and lineup locks.

📖 Read Ryan Heath of Fantasy Points’ Week 17 Advanced Matchups ($), where he digs through the Fantasy Points Data Suite to identify the best and worst schematic matchups for DFS and player prop bets in Week 17.

📖 Read Keys to a Fantasy Football Victory in Week 17 by Yahoo’s Sal Vetri. The keys include Vetri’s “pick-up-and-play defense,” “sketchy spot of the week,” “must-start of the week,” and more.

🎙️ Listen to Week 17 Love/Hate from the Fantasy Football Happy Hour with Matthew Berry, where the godfather of fantasy football talks starts, sits, and trends.

📺 Watch the Walter Payton Man of the Year Special, hosted by Walter’s son, Jarrett Payton. The special highlights several 2024 Walter Payton Man of the Year nominees around the league, showcasing the great things they’re doing for their community on and off the field.

TWEET OF THE DAY

Good luck this weekend! Excited to hear how many Morning Huddlers bring home the hardware!🏆

We’ll see you again in April to get you prepped for the NFL Draft. Until then, have a Happy New Year and thanks again for all your support.👊

- Marcus