Good morning. There are a few good things in life. Tax refunds, fantasy sports and cold beer. Add holding D’Andre Swift to that list.

Swift had 175 rushing yards last night, the most for an Eagle since LeSean McCoy had 217 in the Snow Bowl against Detroit in 2013.

Good news to start your day: The Athletic polled a number of current and former Patriots asking: What’s your favorite Tom Brady story?

From causing stage fright in the bathroom to sleeping at Gillette Stadium during a low point in his career, so many Patriots have a vastly different favorite story about Tom Brady.

For a limited time, The Athletic’s $1 per month sale is here (87% OFF!!). Subscribers get access to the best Tom Brady stories and much more.

RANKINGS

Kenny Pickett drops to QB26. The sophomore threw 2 INTs and averaged only 5.04 yards per attempt (27th in the league) against the 49ers.

Garrett Wilson drops to WR19 with Zach Wilson, who “appears to be the only QB on the planet incapable of coaxing WR1 fantasy production” out of Wilson. Per Scott Barrett, Wilson’s Fantasy Points per Game by QB:

• Zach Wilson: 8.6 FPG

• Joe Flacco: 17.3 FPG

• Mike White: 17.3 FPG

George Pickens moves up to WR31 following Diontae Johnson’s injury. Although he insisted he’s “day-to-day”, Johnson will likely be out multiple weeks with a hamstring injury, per Adam Schefter. Pickens should thrive against Cleveland’s press coverage (Browns played 68% of snaps in press Wk1). And he makes highlight-reel catches (just missed out on one last week).

Read below for why Jakobi Meyers moves up 8 spots to WR35.

Marvin Mims falls to WR62 after a disappointing Wk1. Seven Broncos players ran more routes than Mims, including players named Brandon Johnson and Lil’Jordan Humphrey. Mims needs to earn a larger role before he becomes fantasy relevant. Hold for one more week, but you’re not starting him anywhere.

See how high D’Andre Swift moves in our free tiered rankings.

STORY

Start / Sit for Week 2

Start Jamaal Williams. The volume was there (18 carries and two targets) but results were not, as the Saints struggled against a stout Titans run defense which was the third-best against RBs last season. This week, the Saints play a Panthers team that just gave up a combined 40+ fantasy points to Falcons RBs (and ranked 26th in run defense), per Renee Miller of The Athletic. Note that rookie RB Kendre Miller is questionable for Wk2 (worth a speculative add but still starting Williams).

Sit Isiah Pacheco. Pacheco led the Chiefs RBs with 46.8% of snaps and 12 total touches, but played just one snap on third down (out of 15) and was off the field for all three of Kansas City's snaps inside the 10-yard line, per CBS Sports. Against a Jags defense that held Colts (admittedly weak) RBs to just 1.6 YPC in Wk1, together with Pacheco’s limited role, makes him a sit in Wk2.

Start Rachaad White. Despite an inefficient Wk1, he finished the game with the 10th highest PFF rush grade among RBs with 10+ carries (71.1). White also had a 79% snap rate (5th among RBs) and had 100% of the team’s red-zone carries (@JakeTribbey). The Buccaneers now face a weaker Bears defense that Aaron Jones carved up through the air (RB1 finish) on just 47% of snaps.

Sit Khalil Herbert. The Bears had a tough outing with their committee of Herbert, D'Onta Foreman, and Roschon Johnson combining for just 63 yards on 19 carries in Wk1. Now they face a Buccaneers team that limited the Vikings to 34 rushing yards on 14 carries. Anchored by 350-pound defensive tackle Vita Vea, linebacker Lavonte David along with Devin White, this strong defense is another reason to fade Bears RBs in Wk2, per Devin Knotts of FootballGuys.

Start Browns D/ST. Miles Garrett & company face a “Steelers team that turned the ball over three times in Week 1 and will likely be without Diontae Johnson, their top option in the passing game”, per Brian Drake of Fantasy Points.

Add Durham Smythe if you have an extra roster spot or need a TE. The Dolphins TE has almost zero competition for playing time on a high-powered offense. Smythe played 100% of snaps in Wk1 and was second on the team (ahead of Jaylen Waddle) in first-read targets (6). “If he can become a third option for this offense at the grossest position in fantasy, he is worth rostering,” per Chris Wecht of Fantasy Points.

Click here to send us an email with your start/sit questions and we’ll get back to you ASAP.

HOSPITAL VISIT

Stars Hit The Shelves

Injuries we’re keeping an eye on this weekend. Follow us on Twitter to stay updated.

Austin Ekeler’s status is uncertain due to an ankle injury. “There’s a non-zero chance he can’t go in Week 2, as Joshua Kelley took all of the touches in the 4th quarter due to Ekeler’s injury”, per Edwin Porras of Fantasy Points. He’ll need to practice today to have a good chance to suit up - which seems unlikely. Joshua Kelley becomes startable if not.

Darren Waller’s hamstring injury could remain a lingering issue all season, per @PLeonardNYDN. This is the same hamstring that plagued Waller in 2022. Reports say it is a “nerve” issue, meaning we can expect Waller to work through it. The TE is optimistic, saying that it doesn’t affect him unless he’s running a deep vertical route. But this won’t go away, per @FBInjuryDoc. Trade if you don’t want to risk it.

DeAndre Hopkins appears to be dealing with a high ankle sprain, an injury that caused 96% of WRs since 2017 to miss at least one week (avg 3-4 weeks), per Adam Hutchison. He likely sits. Add Titans TE Chig Okonkwo.

Jerry Jeudy was a full participant in yesterday’s practice, putting him on track to play Sunday vs. Washington, per Adam Schefter.

Puka Nacua did not practice yesterday - if he practices today, start him. If not, very difficult to trust.

Mike Williams and Tyler Lockett were both screened for concussions, but cleared protocol and practiced fully during the week.

Brandin Cooks is dealing with a sprained MCL and could miss anywhere between 1-5 weeks.

Aaron Jones didn’t practice due to a hamstring strain, missing a second straight day. “Since 2018 only 11% of qualified RBs who missed 2 days of practice in a row played that week”, per @FBInjuryDoc. He’s leaning toward playing, but practice status today is key.

MARKETS

Slow Your Roll

📉 We’re lowering expectations for James Conner. He was the bell cow Wk1, earning 14 of 19 carries and 5 of 5 targets among Cardinals RBs. The problem? This offense runs at a slower pace without Kliff Kingsbury (and is much worse without Kyler Murray). The Cardinals ranked 2nd fastest on a per-snap basis last year, but ranked just 15th in Wk1. We’re starting Conner based on his volume, but don’t expect RB1 numbers like last season. If someone else expects that, sell.

📈 We’re starting Hunter Henry. Henry led all TEs in receiving in Wk1 (with 56 yards…) and reestablished himself as a red zone threat. He averaged 14.7 redzone targets his previous 5 healthy seasons. Henry is a key part of the Patriots offense and faces a Dolphins defense that gave up the third most points to TEs in Wk 1.

📉 We’re lower on Broncos WRs in a tough matchup. The Commanders were among the most man-heavy defenses in the NFL and allowed just 8% of passing yards while in man. Broncos’ receivers only faced a small sampling of man coverage in Wk 1, but had zero success against it. Keep Courtland Sutton and everyone not-named Jerry Jeudy on your bench if you can. Jeudy starts.

📈 We’re keeping an eye on Chuba Hubbard. He split work with Miles Sanders in Wk 1 and was on the field for 87% of the Panthers long down and distance plays. He was 3rd among RBs in missed tackles forced per touch and was the Panthers highest graded offensive player.

📉 We’re dropping JuJu Smith-Schuster because we still haven’t forgiven him for the TikToks. It also hurt that JuJu played just 54% of snaps Wk 1 and was a non-factor in a game where QB Mac Jones threw 54 pass attempts.

👀 Trade for Dalton Kincaid. He ran 38 routes in his first NFL game and could be a fantasy cheat code. He's a wide receiver for one of the highest-volume passing attacks in the NFL and is eligible at TE, per @jagibbs_23.

Signal or Noise?

London 📉 while Meyers 🔥 

How bad was Drake London’s Wk1? His QB had more receptions than London. The sophomore WR was only targeted once (incomplete) in Atlanta’s win, despite having a 91% route participation. Talk about wind sprints.

While we doubt it is this bad again, Atlanta’s passing offense is a valid concern. The Falcons ran the ball at the 2nd-highest rate in the league last year and had the 2nd least catchable targets per game. HC Arthur Smith continued that trend in 2023, as RBs made up 70.8 percent of the Falcons' 48 total offensive touches. Low passing volume means players like London and Kyle Pitts must be ultra-efficient to have fantasy success. While the talent is there, London won’t get the week-to-week opportunities to live up to his potential.

On the other hand, Jakobi Meyers lit it up in his Vegas debut. The 5th year WR reunited with former OC Josh McDaniels and made an instant impact for the Raiders, landing near the top of the charts in every major analytical statistic:

Unfortunately, Meyers’ momentum will be slowed as he finds himself in concussion protocol following a devastating hit in the 4th quarter. While he’s unlikely to play this week, he could be in for a breakout season once he returns. Now could be the perfect buy chance.

QUICK SLANTS

Dameon Pierced My Heart

📖 Read Scott Barrett’s Week 1 Fantasy Recap on Fantasy Points. Scott lays out why Dameon Pierce’s managers should be worried.

“In a 25-9 loss, where C.J. Stroud attempted 44 passes, Pierce played on only 48% of the snaps (his lowest snap share since Week 1 of last season), earning 11 of 18 carries (61%) and 2 of 5 targets out of the backfield. He was out-targeted by Mike Boone (4 to 3), who ran only 2 fewer routes. Devin Singletary wasn’t really involved in the passing game (5 routes), but Pierce only out-carried him 11 to 7. Pierce probably has a very hard time paying off his RB16 ADP (ESPN).”

📖 Read The Training Room: Week 1 Injury Recap by Jeff Mueller. Jeff doesn’t seem too concerned about Aaron Jones:

“It does not sound like a serious injury, and a mild strain would allow him to recover and play in Week 2 with low reinjury risk and minimal production dip” You heard the man, start Aaron Jones everywhere.

📖 Read Matthew Berry’s Love/Hate for Week 2 of 2023 season. Berry’s take on James Cook:

“James Cook handled 80 percent of Buffalo’s running back carries in Week 1. With the passing game still working out the kinks, look for Buffalo to lean a little more on the run. But even if they don’t, know that Cook had six targets and a 15 percent target share in the opener. This week, the Bills face a Vegas team that surrendered 131 total yards to backs in Week 1 along with 10 receptions to backs. Considering usage and matchup, I have Cook inside my top 13 backs for Week 2.”

🎙️Listen to Rest of Season Top-150 Rankings: Six Trades to Make + Buy Lows and Sell Highs episode of the Establish the Run podcast.

On Jaylen Waddle: “Waddle can have massive games… Braxton Berrios and River Cracraft combined for 10 targets against the Chargers and I do not expect that to be the case going forward. Waddle is an awesome buy low right now.”

🎙️Listen to Week 1 Data you NEED to Know | The Utilization Report Debrief by Fantasy Life’s Dwain McFarland and Marcas Grant.

On Calvin Ridley: “We have to consider him a top-6 WR now. Last time we saw him healthy for a full season he was the overall WR4 in fantasy. During Week 1 he had 97% route participation, 35% target share, 49% of the team’s air yards, and 50% of the endzone targets.”

Creator of the Day

JJ Zachariason

In this new series, we highlight the best people in the fantasy football industry.

JJ Zachariason (@LateRoundQB) is a pillar of the Fantasy Football community and we’ve been fans for years. We were fortunate to connect with JJ to learn his beginnings, his process and his ‘flag plant’ player for the remainder of 2023.

JJ got his start back in 2012 by writing an e-book titled The Late-Round Quarterback, where he went against the established practice of targeting early-round QBs in favor of later-round options. This was a game changer and led to a role with the startup numberFire. (See 2011 ADP here: Mike Vick went R1).

Since then, JJ has gone solo and produced two guides every year. The first is his prospect guide, which digs into the evaluation process for incoming rookies, and the second is his draft guide.

His excellent Late Round Podcast combines game theory, detailed research process and overall strategy. Things go wrong throughout a season, and JJ credits his approach to being able to identify problems early and often.

Sleepers and Trends

In his Week 2 Sleepers episode, JJ highlights: Derek Carr, Joshua Kelley, Tyjae Spears, Rashid Shaheed, Zay Jones, and Luke Musgrave. His deep sleepers (10% or less) include: C.J. Stroud, Jerome Ford, Tank Dell, Calvin Austin and Durham Smythe.

He also does a weekly trends show - here are some fun ones from his 10 Trends for Week 2 episode:

• The Bears were second in the league in RB target share in Week 1 at 44%. Last year, the Bears were around 17%, so JJ believes we need to pay attention if this continues into week 2 as this would boost Chicago RBs.

• Seattle tied Atlanta for the fewest pass and rush attempts in the NFL in Week 1 (i.e. slowest pace of play), but JJ believes Kenneth Walker is a buy. He ended the day with a 71% rushing share and a 21% target share - the only RB to do this in Week 1.

We asked JJ what his ‘flag plant take’ for the season is, and we were excited to find out…it’s Breece Hall.

You can follow JJ on Twitter, subscribe to The Late Round Podcast and join his Patreon for more.

Tweet of the Day

We do appreciate a some quality pigskin.

Before we go, be sure to send your well wishes to managers who spent all their FAAB on Puka Nacua, only to find out he missed practice yesterday with an oblique injury. Feel it, Jabronis!

- Jake, Eddie, Marcus & Matt

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