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š Zach Charbonnet & Week 3 Starts/Sits
Start Em & Sit Em for Week 3, along with the latest injury updates and Best Bets.
Good morning.
With passing being at an all-time low and injuries taking out some of the leagueās best playmakers, this has been one of the toughest starts to a fantasy season in recent memory.
Meanwhile, your buddy who hasnāt watched football in five years that drafted Baker Mayfield and Alvin Kamara is laughingā¦
But itās a long season. Letās make this the week we turn things around and get that W.
Today's newsletter highlights:
š Latest injury updates
š„ Zach Charbonnet & Week 3 starts
š Najee Harris & Week 3 sits
š° Bet on Aiyuk?!
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INJURY REPORT š
Jordan Love a Gametime Decision
Packers QB Jordan Love (knee) logged three limited practices this week and is listed as Questionable. HC Matt LaFleur hinted Friday that Love still hasnāt been medically cleared to play, so the expectation is for Malik Willis to get the nod once again, but keep tabs on the latest reports if you have Love or any Green Bay WRs.
Your fantasy app will let you know whoās confirmed IN or OUT, but hereās how other Questionable players are trendingā¦
š Expected to play:
Chargers QB Justin Herbert
Titans RB Tyjae Spears
Colts WR Michael Pittman
Bengals WR Tee Higgins
š Not expected to play:
Steelers QB Russell Wilson
Seahawks RB Ken Walker
Dolphins RB Raheem Mostert
Chargers WR Josh Palmer
49ers TE George Kittle
Jags TE Evan Engram
š¤·āāļø Gametime decision:
Cardinals WR Greg Dortch
Saints TE/QB Taysom Hill
POLL š
With injuries to Kupp & Nacua, who will emerge this week as the Rams' new WR1? |
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STARTS & SITS š§
Quarterback
Joe Burrow // Andy Lyons, Getty Images
ā Start āEm:
Joe Burrow vs WAS: The Commanders have recorded the highest pass EPA allowed and the 2nd-lowest sack rate, per NFL.comās Michael F. Florio. This could be the week Burrow turns things around in a big way.
Dak Prescott vs BAL: The Ravensā defense currently ranks 26th in the NFL in EPA per dropback allowed. The Cowboys, in turn, have the 12th-highest pass rate over expected through two weeks, per NBCSportsā Kyle Dvorchak. Expect a high-scoring affair.
Derek Carr vs PHI: Look for Carr to stay hot in Week 3 as he takes on an Eagles D that has allowed the 5th-most passing yards per game (242) through two contests, per USA Todayās Jacob Camenker.
ā Sit āEm:
Justin Herbert @ PIT: āPittsburgh has only allowed 14.5 fantasy points per game to QBs this year while giving up a combined 401 pass yards. Given that Herbert has yet to finish inside the top 20 at the QB position this season, he should be left on benches this weekend.ā ā RotoBallerās Joey Pollizze
Brock Purdy @ LAR: No McCaffrey, no Deebo, no Kittle, no QB1 finishes yetā¦ no chance Iām starting Purdy.
Matthew Stafford vs SF: Much like Purdy, Stafford is a fade without Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp against a tough Niners D. Itās best to find someone else to stream for the week.
Running Back
Zach Charbonnet // MSN
ā Start āEm:
Zach Charbonnet vs MIA: The combination of Travis Etienne and Tank Bigsby ran over the Dolphins in Week 1 for 24 carries, 117 yards and a TD, along with two catches for 15 yards on three targets. And then James Cook and Ray Davis combined for 20 carries for 107 yards and two TDs and two catches for 16 yards and a TD on two targets in Week 2, per CBSSportsā Jamey Eisenberg. With Ken Walker sidelined again this week, expect Charbonnet to be a workhorse.
J.K. Dobbins @ PIT: This isnāt the Steelers of oldā¦ theyāve allowed the 5th-most fantasy points to visiting RBs since last season, per SIās Michael Fabiano. And with Herbert nursing a high-ankle sprain, look for the Chargers to lean on Dobbins and the running game.
Brian Robinson @ CIN: āRobinson is the clear lead back in Dan Quinnās run-first scheme, and that should result in strong production on Monday against a Bengals defense that has allowed a whopping 159.5 rushing yards per game.ā ā DraftKingsā Jeff Pratt
ā Sit āEm:
Najee Harris vs LAC: His snap rate dropped to 48% last week with a healthier Jaylen Warren seeing 45%. Harris also ran just six routes (Warren ran 10 in a game without much passing) and remains at risk of losing rushing scores to Justin Fields. And the Chargers have ceded just 73.5 RB rushing yards per game without a TD, yielding the leagueās lowest EPA/rush, per Yahooās Dalton Del Don.
Aaron Jones vs HOU: āOpposing RBs have averaged only 12.7 fantasy points per game against the Texans despite having a TD in both contests. The AFC South champions have held their opponents to only a 9% missed forced tackle per attempt rate (per Fantasy Points Data). Meanwhile, Ty Chandler was far more productive in Week 2 than in Week 1. Donāt be surprised if Minnesota has a near 50-50 backfield split moving forward.ā ā FantasyPointsā Mike Fanelli
DāAndre Swift @ IND: Swift has logged 24 carries this season, averaging just 2 yards per attempt, and an alarming -4 yards before contact, per Michael F. Florio. This Bears o-line is atrocious.
Wide Receiver
Rashid Shaheed // Chris Graythen, Getty Images
ā Start āEm:
Rashid Shaheed vs PHI: Heās sure to regress eventually, but Shaheed leads the NFL in yards per route run by a mile and ranks 7th in average separation score on a team using 2-WR sets a league-high 90% of plays. The Saints also lead the NFL in fantasy points per dropback by a wide margin, while the Eagles have allowed the 2nd most fantasy points to wideouts, per Dalton Del Don.
Jameson Williams @ ARI: Through two weeks, he has 20 targets for 10 catches, 200 yards and a TD, and he's scored at least 14.4 PPR points in each outing. With this game being a potential track meet (51.5 O/U) and Amon-Ra nursing a leg injury, Williams should stay hot.
Obviously tiny sample. But Jameson Williams has seen the 5th-best opportunity among all WRs.
Everyone else on this list was going in top-5 rounds of best ball.
ā Adam Levitan (@adamlevitan)
3:06 PM ā¢ Sep 19, 2024
D.J. Moore @ IND: He has 18 targets in two games, but has only managed 11 catches for 89 yards and is averaging just 10.7 PPR points per game. This could finally be the week Moore sees some positive regression, as the Colts are No. 6 in most fantasy points allowed to opposing receivers, per Jamey Eisenberg.
ā Sit āEm:
Michael Pittman Jr. vs CHI: Heās banged up and taking on a Bears D that has allowed the 11th-fewest fantasy points to WRs this season and have allowed just one TD to the position, per Jacob Camenker. And that's despite facing the Houston Texans and Tennessee Titans, two teams with strong, experienced pass-catching groups.
Terry McLaurin @ CIN: The Bengals have allowed the 6th-fewest fantasy points to opposing WRs and forced Patrick Mahomes into a pair of interceptions in Week 2, while sacking him twice, per Bleacher Reportās Kristopher Knox. They should feast on rookie Jayden Daniels and the Commandersā lackluster passing game.
Mike Evans vs DEN: He should spend most of the game shadowed by Patrick Surtain II, who completely shut down DK Metcalf in Week 1 and George Pickens in Week 2. Chris Godwin has performed more like Tampaās WR1 ā compared to Evans, Godwin has a higher target per route run rate (37% vs. 23%), target share (32.7% vs. 22.4%), and yards per route run average (4.65 vs. 2.19) despite having a lower route participation rate (70.5% vs. 77%), per Mike Fanelli.
Tight End
Pat Freiermuth // CBSSports
ā Start āEm:
Pat Freiermuth vs LAC: The Chargers are allowing 11.1 PPR fantasy points per game through the first two weeks and just allowed five catches to Panthers TEs last week, per Joey Pollizze. While itās never fun starting one of Arthur Smithās TEs, the position is bleak, so give it a shot.
Mike Gesicki vs WAS: Only six TEs are averaging over 10 PPR points per game (per Jeff Pratt), and Gesicki just so happens to be one of them. Heās a solid streaming candidate for those that are thin at the position.
ā Sit āEm:
Dalton Kincaid vs JAX: āIn Week 1, Kincaid was only targeted once and earned five air yards on that target. He drastically improved his target share in Week 2 with four looks in the passing game. Surely he saw more air yards as wellā¦right? Nope. He had an aDOT of negative two. Kincaid isnāt seeing the ball often and when he does itās on empty calorie looks.ā ā Kyle Dvorchak
Isaiah Likely @ DAL: āLikely came crashing back to earth last week, scoring just 4.6 fantasy points after his 26.1-point explosion in the opener. The rotation was much more in favor of Mark Andrews, as Likely saw just 32 snaps and was on the field for 19 passing snaps. The Cowboys defense has allowed the fifth-fewest points to tight ends since the start of last season, so Iād keep Likely on the sidelines.ā ā Michael Fabiano
BEST BETS š°
Brandon Aiyuk // USA Today
2024 record: 5-1 (3-0 last week)
š„ Brandon Aiyuk OVER 63.5 receiving yards (-120)
āAiyuk moves into the WR1 role for the 49ers with no Samuel. The Rams have allowed an NFL-high 11.6 yards per catch to opposing wideouts this season and an NFL-high 293 yards to receivers lined up out wide. Aiyuk should be in for a big day.ā ā SIās Jennifer Piacenti
š„ Will Levis UNDER 202.5 passing yards (-113)
Levis has yet to surpass 200 passing yards this season. Heās gone under this number in seven of his last 10 games played, per FantasyProsā Andrew Erickson.
š„ Jaguars @ Bills OVER 45.5 (-110)
āThe Bills defense suffered more injuries last Thursday in Miami and had issues with the Cardinals in the season opener. Jacksonville has disappointed so far, but Iām giving the Jags offense one more chance this week to realize the potential I think it has.ā ā FOXās Chris āThe Bearā Fallica
Disclaimer: Gambling should be enjoyed as a form of entertainment. Never gamble more than you can afford to lose.
QUICK SLANTS š
š Read Derek Brown of FantasyPros āThe Primer: Week 3 Edition". D-Bro breaks down each matchup, giving you the stats and info you need for fantasy and betting decisions.
š Read Timothy Rapp of Bleacher Reportās Trade Value for This Yearās Top 100 Players. Rapp puts the top 100 players into numerical trade value tiers to give you an idea of some deals you could make.
š Read this CNN article about how a fantasy football feud led to a fake bomb threat and an FBI investigation.š³ It's not that deep guys...
šļøListen to Beat the Waiver Wire! Favorite Players to STASH ahead of Week 3 from CBSSportsā Fantasy Football Today. Kareem Hunt is their top stash at the moment.š
šŗ Watch Bill Belichick break down the origins of the Shanahan-Kubiak system thatās taken over the NFL.
Boot and Stretch - the stuff of nightmares for defenses.
Belichick breaks down the Shanahan/Kubiak family coaching tree as only he could šØāš«
ā Inside the NFL (@insidetheNFL)
1:05 PM ā¢ Sep 19, 2024
TWEET OF THE DAY
Interviewer: "so tell me about your experience"
Me: "I manage a team of 9 at Yahoo, and we've improved KPI's across the board by an average of 11% over the course of 5 years."
Int: "What would you say is your biggest weakness?"
Me: "I keep drafting Kyle Pitts"
Int: "What?"
ā Jeff (@TheFantasyEng)
12:55 PM ā¢ Sep 19, 2024
The turnaround starts today. Good luck this week and go get that W.
- Marcus
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