Good morning. Especially to Travis Kelce, who has no idea what he’s got himself into with Taylor Swift. The popstar will reportedly be in NYC for the Chiefs v Jets on SNF, so be ready for more profanity:

And let’s be honest, Swifties will dominate fantasy football next year.

Good news to start your day if you hold Zach Moss: Jonathan Taylor "still doesn't want to play for the Colts," and the Colts "still don't want to give him a long-term contract,” per @DanGrazianoESPN. Not entirely true (IMO), as the Colts want to give him a contract this offseason after seeing him post-injury. But regardless, Zach Moss in this role all season would be a league winner.

RANKINGS

Alvin Kamara moves up to RB15 now that he’s returned from suspension. This move is essentially an indictment on the RB position as a whole, with numerous injuries and committees clouding the position. With Derek Carr and Jamaal Williams injured, the Saints should lean heavily on Kamara.

Dameon Pierce continues to drop, landing at RB29. Pierce’s day was salvaged by a TD, but he still averaged only 2.21 YPC behind an o-line ravaged by injuries. But good news should be coming as the line gets healthier (sneaky buy-low).

Jahan Dotson falls to WR35, as he’s yet to score double-digit fantasy points this season (even in PPR). He has fewer touches, yards, and fantasy points than teammate Curtis Samuel and faces a tough Eagles defense this week.

Tank Dell shoots up to WR41 following back-to-back 20+ fantasy point outings. Dell was the highest graded rookie last week (per PFF) after putting up 145 yards and a TD on 5 catches. Dell has emerged as the alpha in the surprisingly effective Texans passing game.

Sam LaPorta moves up to TE7 after his breakout performance. The rookie earned 11(!!!) targets and is the 1st TE in NFL history to start a career with 5+ receptions in their first 3 games, per @GuruFantasyWrld, and LaPorta is the TE2 overall thus far.

STORY

Regression to the Mean

What do we mean by “regression to the mean”? Adam Harstad of Footballguys.com explains it better than we can. In his article, he uses the analogy of a free throw:

Steph Curry’s career free throw percentage is 90.91%, but there is variance on a game-to-game level. Imagine that in the first week of the 2023 season, Curry makes 6 of 12 free throws. Nobody would conclude that Curry was suddenly a 50% free throw shooter, right?

Instead, we'd think this game was an outlier and expect him to go back closer to his average (requiring him to hit above 90.91% the rest of the way). Because 91% is Curry's long-term mean (or average), we expect him to regress (or return) to it.

Just like Steph Curry has an average free throw percentage, every football player has an average talent level. And just as Curry's game-by-game results can deviate, every football player's results deviate from their own true mean. And just like we'd expect Curry to return to his average, we should expect all players to return to theirs, as well.

Since joining the Rams, Matthew Stafford averages 270 passing yards per game. So after Stafford threw for 334 yards in Week 1, we could be confident that number would eventually regress.

• Week 2: 307 yards.

• Week 3: 269 yards.

That's regression to the mean in a nutshell (Thank you, Adam.)

Adam has a 78% success rate in his regression-focused column's six-year history. So yea, it’s worth reading and subscribing to Footballguys (this is not a paid promotion and we have no affiliation, just fans). As for this week 👇️ 

Four Dips to be Bought

We spent five hours finding the top regression candidates and best expert articles to compile this newsletter (Yes, this is a cry for help).

1. Derrick Henry is averaging only 3.2 YPC and has been out-snapped by rookie RB Tyjae Spears in 2 out of 3 games. Henry's 2.0 PPR point total was the lowest of his career in any game with at least 10 rush attempts.

Concerning? Yes. But context matters. He’s faced two top-5 defences (NO and CLE). He has a toe injury. The Titans o-line is one of the league’s worst (that might not change).

He’s also on pace to see roughly the same amount of targets as last season (41), when he finished RB4. This week, he gets a Bengals team that has given up the third-most rushing yards through the first three weeks at 5.1 YPC clip. If the manager with Henry is struggling on the year, they may be willing to ship him off for any return they can get.

And chill out, it’s only Sept. Henry historically averages 67 yards/game and 3.8 yards/carry this month. He improves as the season progresses, seeing a peak of 96.6 YPG and 5.47 YPC in December. And this December, he gets the Texans in Weeks 15 and 17 (most important weeks in fantasy football). Henry’s stats in his last five meetings against the Texans:

2. Josh Jacobs was tackled at the 1-yard line in Week 3 and is seeing elite volume: 80% snap share (3rd among RBs), 71% rushing attempt share (5th) and has seen the most red zone touches without a TD among RBs.

While Jacobs continues to struggle to get on track, he faces a Chargers defense that allowed Alexander Mattison to finish RB10 (despite Mattison’s best efforts…).

Don’t forget, Jacobs scored 8.3, 9.1, and 14.7 in the first games of last season before finishing as RB3, via Ben Gretch’s Stealing Signals.

3. Rhamondre Stevenson started 2022 with games of 4.7 and 6.1 before scoring over 20 points in Week 3 and finishing as RB8, via Stealing Signals. Stevenson had the highest yards after contact per attempt in 2022 (3.81) but ranks last (1.80) this season. His PFF Rushing Grade also dropped (84.3 -> 69.4).

In each of the past two seasons, Rhamondre has an 80.0-plus rushing grade. And in both years, he averaged more than 4.7 yards per carry with more than 3.4 yards after contact. Last year, his 40% evaded tackles per touch rate was top-3 in the NFL, plus he sat 3rd in juke rate and 14th in YPRR. Thinking this regresses positively.

4. Tee Higgins has only 10 catches on 28 targets, by far the lowest number of catches for a WR with over 25 targets. His career catch percentage is 64+%, but he’s struggled this season (35.7%). Higgins’ yards per target (3.9) has also dropped from 2022 (9.4) or 2021 (9.9).

After just 21 yards on eight targets with multiple bad drops, anyone rostering Higgins is ready to yeet him off their squad.

Buy the dip. Higgins’ box-out, 6’4 size game fits well with an injured Burrow, and the Bengals lead the NFL in situation neutral pass rate. The volume will be there for Higgins, who, on the season, leads the Bengals by a wide margin in air yards, per Denny Carter of NBC Sports. Expect more Week 2-type games as Higgins regresses.

5. Calvin Ridley has struggled since his Week 1 WR6 finish, with WR76 and WR66 finishes in back to back weeks. Regression is coming: Ridley leads Jags WRs in target share, air yards and red zone targets. He almost had another 9 points in Week 3 (would’ve placed him top-25). That said, maybe wait a week: Ridley has a tough matchup vs. lockdown CB AJ Terrell this week.

MARKETS

Not Buying Moore

📉 We’re selling DJ Moore. Moore is an OK fantasy asset, scoring 16.4 and 13.1 PPR points over his last two games, while averaging a 27.5% target share per game. But it's hard to trust him in an offense that ranks 31st in adjusted completion rate, 30th in pressure rate allowed, and 28th in passing volume. A matchup against the reeling Broncos might present an opportunity to sell.

📈 We’re buying low(ish) on Brian Robinson after Week 4. Robinson has been the clear cut RB1 (with the exception of week 3 as game script had Washington down bad). But this could be the situation in Week 4 against an undefeated Eagles team with a stout defense.

However, Robinson has seen less than 20 touches in only 2 of his last 8 games and still saw a 77% carry share in a down week. He has elite usage at the position and is begging coaches to unleash him. High upside.

📉 We’re dropping AJ Dillon, who is down to -1.26 rush yards over expectation this season. He also only has 1 target on 69 Jordan Love pass attempts over the last two games.

📈 We’re buying Christian Watson. His hamstring injury has frustrated many but his upside is elite. His chemistry with Jordan Love was on full display last season with Watson finishing 4th in TDs despite ranking only 67th in targets. Watson will make his season debut tonight. Fire him up.

📉 We’re dropping Brandin Cooks, who hasn’t had more than 22 receiving yards in a game this season. The Cowboys rank 29th in pass rate over expectation with a league-low 5.4 aDOT. To make things worse, TE Jake Ferguson has a 17.5% target share.

REGRESSION

Moore to Come?

Elijah Moore is the king of training camp hype, but has been pretty average this season — his 15 catches have produced just 28.10 PPR fantasy points (WR50 overall). But if you dig a little deeper, you’ll find signs that point to bigger things to come…

Moore is currently averaging over 4 yards of separation per target, which leads all WRs with at least 15 targets this season (per NextGenStats). He’s also tied for 9th in the league with 14 targets deemed “open” or “wide open” (per @FantasyPtsData). As a result, he’s now tied with Amari Cooper for the team lead in targets (24) and has earned target shares above 22% each week, per JJ Zachariason, including an elite 29% target share in Week 3.

With Nick Chubb lost for the season and HC Kevin Stefanski finding creative ways to get Moore the ball (including a jet sweep-reverse-flea flicker-WR screen), the production is bound to come. He’s an ideal buy.

Love or Lust?

On the other hand, Jordan Love’s hot streak looks unsustainable. Per NBCSports’ Regression Files, the Packers QB ranks second in QB fantasy points over expectation, trailing only Tua Tagovailoa. Love’s TD rate entering Week 3 was a ridiculous 11.2% (Patrick Mahomes is the modern day leader with 6.4%) but has since dropped to 7.5%, and should continue to regress.

Love’s completion rate over expected ranks 32nd out of 34 qualifying QBs (somehow behind the Zach Wilson) and Love has the league’s 4th lowest air yards conversion rate. His success has been impressive, but it seems due to effective play-calling mixed with TD luck, not efficient QB play. Sell high if you can.

QUICK SLANTS

Game of Jones

📖 Read Prioritize These Waiver Pickups by Joe Holka. Joe on why Aaron Jones is a top trade target:

“Sunday’s game showed just how critical Aaron Jones is to the Packers’ offense. Jordan Love was the team’s leading rusher, while A.J. Dillon looked inefficient. Take out his 14-yard long and he averaged just 1.9 yards per carry. The team will need Jones heavily involved to make that offense go.”

Jones is listed as questionable for tonights game but WR Romeo Doubs said Jones is playing. Fire him up.

📖 Read The Best Fantasy Performers vs ADP by Ian Hartitz of Fantasy Life.

Adam Thielen’s huge Week 3 in particular had the “perfect mixture of factors [which may not be present when Young returns] with:

1. Andy Dalton under center in place of Bryce Young

2. A matchup against the Seahawks’ objectively bad secondary

3. Blowout-worthy game script that forced Dalton to throw 58 (!) passes.”

🎙️Listen to the Team-by-Team Week Recap & Preview from Establish the Run.

Rhamondre Stevenson: “His usage has still been solid and he profiles as an RB2 moving forward, we just haven’t seen efficiency so far. He only has 2.9 yards per carry… I’m worried about his efficiency because of New England’s lack of down-field receiving threats. Teams don’t have to play two-high safeties against the Patriots and can move another defender into the box.”

🎙️ Listen to the 10 Trends for Week 4 episode of the Late Round Podcast.

On Minnesota’s offense: “They have a high pass rate, but even with that pass rate we shouldn’t only expect passing TDs. They have 9 passing TDs and 0 rushing TDs so far. Regression is coming.” Possibly to Alexander Mattison and/or Cam Akers…

Creator of the Day

In this new series, we highlight the best of the fantasy football industry.

Tyler Helf (@TylerHelf) is one of the most popular voices on TikTok for good reason. He began during the pandemic, pointing to other creators like Sal Vetri who inspired him to start filming. A few years of grinding later, he’s emerged as a thought leader.

One of our favorites is his ‘What went right and wrong’ series, where he holds himself accountable for misses and recaps wins. He has everything one wants in a fantasy football analyst (and was buying AJ Brown last week).

Two of Tyler’s Week 3 takeaways:

RBs vs The Broncos. It’s been two straight weeks where this defense was shredded, allowing Brian Robinson to be the RB1 overall Wk2 and the Mostert/Achane 70-point explosion last week. Up next: Chicago’s Khalil Herbert and Roschon Johnson.

Texans Are Real. Stroud looks legit and the team will continue to improve. Tyler recommends we buy low on Dameon Pierce - the line is getting healthier and this is an ascending offense

. Take advantage of a panicked owner.

Watch his best bets for the TNF game tonight, including the under on Jared Goff’s 255 passing yards.

Tweet of the Day

Achane on my bench tho 😅 Thanks for joining us this AM, see you Sunday.

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