Good morning. Today is Sunday, which means some brave souls are setting lineups against Justin Fields, DJ Moore and Logan Thomas.

We’re also thinking of those of you who streamed the Commanders D/ST on Thursday. It can’t get (much) worse.

Good news if you’re an NFL RB: Jonathan Taylor signed a massive 3-year, $42M extension with $26.5M guaranteed. He became the first RB to land a long-term deal worth $10 million+ per year since Nick Chubb in 2021 — almost 800 days ago (@AdamSchefter).

It helped that the Colts have QB Anthony Richardson on a rookie deal for the entirety of Taylor’s contract. Meanwhile, the Giants refused to pay Saquon but signed Daniel Jones to a $160 million deal.

Did the Colts decision make sense? They refused to pay Taylor all offseason, placed him on PUP and then watched the Zach Moss-led rushing game average 139 yards per game.

And after that, the Colts said “we need to pay Taylor top of the market”? (@McNamaraDynasty). Still, Taylor got less guaranteed than Ezekiel Elliott ($50m) and Todd Gurley ($45m). But we’re glad to see the stud RB get paid and back on the field.

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RANKINGS

Justin Fields rises to QB10. He’s scoring fantasy points like it’s mid-late 2022, only this time it’s through the air. Fields is averaging 308 passing yards and 4 TDs in his last 2 games. With a soft upcoming schedule, Fields could continue to ball.

Derrick Henry moves up to RB9 after his RB7 finish against Cincy. He has the easiest remaining schedule for RBs, per FantasyPros, and is second to only CMC in carries this season, per @AlexCaruso. That’s a recipe for another top 10 finish for King Henry, who we begged you to grab last week.

Rhamondre Stevenson falls to RB22. The volume is there, but the production isn’t. The Pats are just 20th in run blocking grade, own one of the worst offenses in the NFL and Zeke is stealing touches (@BReynolds200).

D.J. Moore jumps to WR25 after going nuclear (49 PPR points). He showcased his playmaking ability with 143 YAC in a Bears passing game that’s trending up. Moore could excel as the team’s top/only target (no other Bears WRs caught a pass Thursday night…).

DeAndre Hopkins falls to WR43. Even with Treylon Burks out last Sunday, Hopkins played his lowest snap rate of the season (53%) and finished with just 4 catches for 63 yards. While his outlook for today’s game is positive (read more below), we’re fading this Titans passing game rest of season.

See how high Jonathan Taylor skyrockets up our rankings.

But note that Irsay gave an indirect warning to fantasy football owners, saying he “wouldn’t look for (Taylor) to have too much work against Tennessee” (The Athletic) 👇️ 

STORY

Start / Sit for Week 5

Start Cooper Kupp. Kupp was a full participant in Friday’s practice, and HC Sean McVay indicated Kupp practiced in full all week. He has WR1 upside against an Eagles team surrendering the 6th most fantasy points to WRs.

Start Dallas Goedert vs the Rams. “The Rams have permitted the NFL’s eighth-most fantasy points to tight ends, giving Goedert a slump-busting opportunity. Touchdowns are the name of the game for tight ends, yet Goedert is scoreless in seven straight regular-season appearances”, per Evan Silva of Establish the Run.

Sit Courtland Sutton vs. NY Jets. “Sutton runs routes at a combined 54% slot-and-wide-right rate, indicating he will face Sauce Gardner or Michael Carter II on a majority of routes.” Stud free safety Jordan Whitehead (70.1 PFF coverage grade) will also assist in coverage. “Among qualifying safeties, Whitehead’s 89.7 PFF wide receiver-coverage grade ranks No. 2 and his 20.0% wide receiver-catch rate allowed ties for No. 1", per Nic Bodiford of PFF.

Sit Hunter Henry vs New Orleans. “The Saints have erased tight ends over the last two years. After allowing a league-low 524 yards last season, New Orleans has allowed 82 yards to TEs (also a league-low). Over their last 21 games, the Saints have allowed 3 TDs to tight ends”, per Graham Barfield of Fantasy Points.

Start Michael Pittman vs Tennessee. “The Titans' pass-funnel defense should offer the perfect bounce-back spot. Tennessee is one of the 10 best matchups for fantasy receivers and has already given up at least 70 yards to six different wideouts in the opening month. With Anthony Richardson looking like the real deal at quarterback, Pittman is poised for a top-20 performance this week,” per Justin Boone of theScore.

Sit Skyy Moore vs Minnesota. “Moore has been a hold based on his route rate and proximity to the league’s best quarterback, but Week 4 may have finally made him a drop. His route rate dropped to 50 percent after falling to 59 percent in the previous week. Without a prominent role, Moore will struggle to produce fantasy points,” per Kyle Dvorchak of NBCSports.

Start/Sit questions? Send us an email and we’ll get back to you ASAP.

MARKETS

Hold Onto Your Rice

🏦 Stash Jeff Wilson. “Wilson is a nice stash anywhere you can get access to him, presumably shallower leagues, because of how explosive Miami’s offense is,” from Ben Gretch’s Input Volatility, Week 5 newsletter.

👀 We’re holding Rashee Rice. The rookie WR has never played more than 51% of the snaps yet this year yet is 3rd among qualifying WRs in targets per route run (32%). He’s behind only Kelce in targets and has seen 5+ looks in 3/4 games this year. Rice has the most upside of any KC WR.

📉 Kyle Pitts is almost droppable. Desmond Ridder may be the worst Falcons QB since the guy he replaced, but Pitts’ isn’t rookie-year Pitts. This video shows Pitts not only not creating separation but constantly falling, a concern from many that he is not healthy and his injury last year was more severe than just an MCL tear. He’s a great long-term dynasty buy, but a must-bench in redraft.

✋ Don’t sell high on Josh Jacobs. He’s seeing elite usage. RB Leaders (Targets + Redzone opportunities)

• Tony Pollard: 48

• Christian McCaffrey: 47

• Kyren Williams: 40

• Josh Jacobs: 38

• Miles Sanders: 30

💧 Drop Donovan Peoples Jones, who is in awful company of WRs doing the Most Cardio (@LordReebs):

• MVS: 138 routes, 11 targets (8.0%)

• Hunter Renfrow: 83, 7 (8.4%)

• Olamide Zaccheaus: 94, 8 (8.5%)

• Randall Cobb: 92, 8 (8.7%)

• Van Jefferson: 161, 15 (9.3%)

• Donovan Peoples-Jones: 155, 15 (9.7%)

QUICK SLANTS

High on Hopkins

📖 Read The Walkthrough by Peter Overzet of Fantasy Life. One player Peter is high on for Week 5: DeAndre Hopkins vs the Colts.

“[Hopkins’] 29.8% TPRR ranks sixth amongst all WRs, ahead of other high-end WRs like Justin Jefferson (28.1%), Keenan Allen (28.0%), and Stefon Diggs (27.7%).”

“No Treylon Burks for Tennessee, and Jonathan Taylor’s potential return may give the Colts’ offense the pop it needs to keep Tannehill throwing”.

📖 Read The Primer by Derek Brown of FantasyPros. Everyone is waiting for the Jacksonville offense to get back on track but Derek recommends looking for a streaming option for Trevor Lawrence owners this week:

“Buffalo is a nightmare matchup for quarterbacks. The Bills have held quarterbacks to the second-lowest passer rating, the third-fewest touchdown passes, and the fewest fantasy points per game.”

📖 Read Start’Em Sit’Em by Graham Barfield of Fantasy Points.

On Jaylen Waddle’s slow start: “In their three games together, Tyreek has out-targeted Waddle by 28 to 16 margin. This is a continuation of last season when Hill saw 114 targets (31% share) to Waddle’s 82 targets (22% share) in their 11 games with Tua Tagovailoa. With Waddle living off of 5-8 targets per game, he’s stuck as a big-play-dependent WR2.”

📖 Read 13 Insights for Fantasy Managers by OUR BOY JAKE on The Athletic ($).

🎙️Listen to Establish The Show: Week 5, by the team at Establish the Run.

🎙️ Listen to Matt Waldman’s RSP Film and Theory with Adam Harstad. It includes advice for re-draft squads that stink right now, which may be helpful for anyone who only recently subscribed.

Best Bets

Cowboys Security Blanket

🥇Jake Ferguson over 28.5 receiving yards

Dallas faces an elite 49ers D this week, impacting WR1 Ceedee Lamb. Last year Lamb’s target per route run dropped from 30% to 18.8% when Dak is pressured; the 49ers are 7th highest in the NFL in pressures this year. When Dak was pressured last season, former TE Dalton Schultz was his security blanket. Ferguson has taken that role. In his past two games, Fergulicious has 48 and 77 yards.

🥈Michael Pittman over 60.5 receiving yards

Tennessee is stout against the run, allowing the lowest explosive run rate in the NFL. Not the same story through the air, as they’ve given up the 6th highest yards per attempt, and 8th most passing yards. Titans play zone at a 60% clip, important because Pittman’s first read percentage jumps to an elite 37% against zone. Pittman could have himself a day.

Disclaimer: Gambling should be enjoyed as a form of entertainment. Never gamble more than you can afford to lose

Creator of the Day

Nick Ercolano

Nick Ercolano (@nickercolano) is the owner of BDGE (Big Dogs Gotta Eat), which is exploding on TikTok (over 622k followers). They hit on all of the usual fantasy football topics, but also create gameshows, trivia and new-age content to keep things fresh.

Nick vs Consensus

Nick looked at consensus rankings for Week 5 and highlighted two players ranked low that he considers must-starts:

Tank Dell - Tank is the spark plug for the Texans offense. Christian Kirk, Amon Ra and Jayden Reed all cooked Atlanta in a similar spot that Dell is in. Nick expects AJ Terrell to shadow Nico Collins (who everyone should pump the brakes on this week), so Dell should feast.

Tyler Higbee - Higbee has had a top-12 tight end finish in 3 of 4 and the Eagles are giving up the second-most fantasy points to tight ends. This offense should be humming and Higbee could have another strong week.

Tweet of the Day

Talk about sacrifice. Dude gave up future generations for a photo.

Good luck in Week 5.

And remember: it took the Bears 346 days to win a game… your 0-4 start is nothing!

- Jake, Eddie, Marcus & Sean

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