Good morning. It’s a good time to check in on that friend who proudly dons a Daniel Jones jersey on gameday. The one who confidently lectured you on why the four-year, $160 million contract was a “steal” and Darren Waller was “exactly what their offense needed”.

Anyone else still cursing those analysts that said Daniel Jones was a sleeper QB ready to be “unlocked” with a “WR1 in Waller”?

Good news to start your day: Jets’ HC Robert Saleh told reporters that the team will not be limiting RB Breece Hall’s workload any longer. He faces the Broncos defense that just allowed Khalil Herbert to post 22 fp. If Breece Hall pops off, we get the breakout we’ve all been waiting for.

If he doesn’t pop off against DEN, everyone will call him a bust and that’s when you buy every share you can. And Hall's schedule after their Week 7 bye is JUICY:

@ NYG (10th-most fp allowed to RBs, per @DrewDavenportFF)
v LAC (6th)
@ LV (14th)
@ BUF (11th)
v. MIA (8th)
v. ATL (30th)❌
v HOU (7th)
@ MIA (8th)

RANKINGS

Daniel Jones falls to QB18. Despite his random QB1 performance against Arizona in Week 2, Danny Dimes has looked atrocious — finishing as the QB28, 31, and 24 in his other 3 games. Brian Daboll is fed up with him and so are we.

Breece Hall rises to RB14 following news that he’s no longer on a pitch count. The Jets offense finally showed some life Sunday night.

Michael Wilson moves up following his 2 TD performance. The rookie has a good rapport with QB Joshua Dobbs, who said Wilson looks more like a “second or third year receiver”. There’s also a chance Marquise Brown is moved.

Darren Waller drops to TE8. He’s averaging only 38 yards per game on a Giants offense that looks hopeless. You’re still starting him because your other options are Kyle Pitts and Dalton Schultz. Or is that just my dynasty team?

Jake Ferguson rises to TE14. With Peyton Hendershot inactive, Fergalicious racked up 7 receptions for 77 yards on Sunday. He’s a TE1 in Dallas but isn’t seeing Dalton-Schultz-like volume (yet). If he does, he becomes a weekly starter. And at this point in the TE rankings, that’s all you can ask for.

STORY

Where’s Patrick the Star?

Through four weeks, Patrick Mahomes -- the Patrick Mahomes -- is the QB8 in points per game. He's never averaged fewer than 20 fppg as a starter. Except this season. A no-brainer rest of season buy.

Per @LateRoundQB’s 15 Transactions, it should get better for Mahomes in the coming weeks: “He's likely going to be better. And then you look at the schedule. Whew, baby.

Upcoming for the Chiefs are matchups against the Vikings, Broncos, Chargers, and Broncos (again). According to my adjusted fantasy points allowed metric -- which measures fantasy points allowed but fixes it for strength of opponent -- that's the best schedule in football over the next month.

From now through the end of the fantasy season, the Chiefs have the third-best quarterback schedule, too.”

Injury Updates

Justin Herbert: Herbert fractured his left middle finger in the Chargers’ win over the Raiders. He is not expected to miss time.

Kenny Pickett: Pickett, who appeared to seriously injure his knee in the Steelers’ loss to the Texans, is only dealing with a bone bruise. Pickett says he’ll play on Sunday against Baltimore.

Matthew Stafford: Stafford has a hip bruise, but is expected to start against the Eagles on Sunday.

Mike Evans: The Buccaneers are hopeful Mike Evans will not miss time with a hamstring “tweak.” The team’s bye week will afford him extra rest.

Myles Garrett: Myles Garrett is day-to-day with a foot injury. The world-class defender should be back after Cleveland’s Week 5 bye.

MARKETS

Don’t Give up on Jones

📈 We’re buying Dalton Kincaid on the cheap. In Week 4, Kincaid ran routes on 23/29 of Josh Allen’s drop backs. He saw a season high 20% target share and finished 2nd on the team in targets (5) and receptions (4). He hasn’t come out as hot as fellow rookie Sam LaPorta, but his route participation has grown each week since Week 2. Bills seem unsure how to use Kincaid. If they figure it out…

🚀 We’re not giving up on Aaron Jones. After a massive Week 1, his hamstring injury kept him out two weeks and severely limited him in Week 4 (& he was on a pitch count). Take advantage of this. After the Packers Week 6 bye, their schedule is very soft. AJ Dillon is a non-factor. Jones is a stud who said he’ll be 100% for the Raiders matchup. Buy.

📈 We’re buying Travis Etienne. Similar to other Jacksonville playmakers, Etienne has been inconsistent. But he’s had a workhorse role. Among all RBs, Etienne is top-8 in rushing attempts, yards after contact, broken tackles and receptions. With elite usage, an explosion game is right around the corner.

🏦 We’re still stashing Keaton Mitchell. He hasn’t taken a single snap in the NFL but that could change as early as Sunday if he is activated off IR. If Mitchell impresses he could carve out a significant role.

🏦 Also stashing Demario Douglas. Missed tackles forced per reception [WRs, min. 5 receptions, Weeks 1-4, @FantasyPtsData] by Ryan Heath:

1. Nico Collins (0.50)
2. Deebo Samuel (0.47)
3. Demario Douglas (0.44)
4. Kadarius Toney (0.44)
5. Zay Flowers (0.42)
6. Tyreek Hill (0.39)

📉 We’re dropping Brandin Cooks. The Cowboys haven’t had to throw the ball much this season, ranking 28th in pass play % while also being 30th in the league in TDs in the redzone %. When they have thrown, Cooks is firmly behind Ceedee Lamb, Jake Ferguson and (even) Michael Gallup in targets. Stash a higher upside player.

Last Thursday we called out Derrick Henry and Josh Jacobs as our two biggest positive regression candidates. We saw vintage King Henry on Sunday 👇️ 

REGRESSION

Bounce Back Brian

We’re still buying the Commanders’ RB1. Falling behind early in Week 3 against Buffalo doomed Robinson. And in Week 4, while he had an OK statline against Philly (45 yards & 1 TD on 14 carries), he was a yard short of the goal line TWICE, per Ian Hartitz’s Sheesh Report, nullifying what could have been a 3 TD performance.

Robinson is the only RB in Washington with a rushing attempt inside the 5, and his 12 red zone attempts are 3x Antonio Gibson’s (per Denny Carter of NBCSports). Plus, Washington’s offensive line is the 7th best run-blocking unit in the league (per PFF), with the league’s 4th lowest stuff rate (runs stopped at or behind the line of scrimmage). And now he faces a Bears defense allowing 115.5 rushing yards/game and the 9th most yards after contact.

With consistent red zone work and 79.4% of Washington’s total rush attempts, Robinson will be like Olivia Culpo. Just fine.

Aiyukidding Me?!

We love Brandon Aiyuk — he’s an underrated route runner in the most efficient offense in the NFL. With that being said… his current pace is unsustainable. #Regression will come.

But Aiyuk is scoring a fantasy point almost every time he runs a route, per Denny Carter of NBC Sports. He’s fantasy’s WR15 despite missing a game. Aiyuk ranks just 87th in routes run and 53rd in targets. He’s also converted an incredible 80% of his air yards — well above his 54% conversion rate over the past two seasons — and leads all WRs in outperforming his expected fantasy points by +7.7. Aiyuk is still an elite WR and a must-start, but don’t expect this ridiculous efficiency to continue all season. A great sell-high, depending on your return (take nothing but high future firsts, Bell Cow RBs or elite WRs/TEs. Or their first-born).

QUICK SLANTS

AR: League Winner.

📖 The Everything Report: Week 5 ($) by Scott Barrett of Fantasy Points. One snippet on this year’s potential league-winner:

“Anthony Richardson is Exodia. Justin Herbert currently averages a position-best 23.9 FPG. Richardson, meanwhile, is averaging 30.3 fantasy points per four quarters, and crushes Herbert in fantasy points per dropback (0.83 vs. 0.56). Richardson is an easy top-5 QB this week, and probably every week moving forward.”

📖 Market Share Report ($) by Michael Salfino of The Athletic. The article covers touch and target totals, highlighting RBs with the Bell Cow usage you love to see.

“How good Kyren Williams is or is not misses the point. Over 35% is bell-cow territory. He’s a Top 10 RB. No further analysis is needed.” While “no further analysis needed” feels like a bit of a stretch, Williams feels like a safe bet-on-volume RB.

📖 Why the Bengals are sticking with a limited Joe Burrow ($) by Paul Deher Jr. of The Athletic.

📺️ Watch Texans Game Tape with Steve Smith and Hayden Winks for Underdog. Is C.J. Stroud legit? Nico Collins a buy high as the WR7? Watch this 21-minute segment 👇️ 

Creator of the Day

Theo Ash

In this new series, we highlight the best people in the fantasy football industry.

Theo Ash (@TheoAshNFL) is a TikTok and podcast sensation, exploding due to his in-depth film analysis and quick wit. He’s a co-host on the Stay Hot Podcast alongside Blaiden Kirk and Matt Sponhour and his TikTok account currently sits at almost a quarter-million followers.

Theo is not afraid to go against consensus. He owns his misses. But he also keeps receipts for his wins - like his analysis of Puka Nacua 5 months ago.

Theo’s Thoughts

If the offensive scheme doesn’t change in Cincy, Joe Burrow is at high risk of a major injury. In his film breakdown of the Bengals game in Week 4, Theo explains the Bengals are failing Burrow by not compensating for his injury: “It used to be suicide to blitz Joe” due to his mobility and the Bengals WRs hot routes or quick reads. Not this year. It’s clear that Burrow’s game was more dependent on his athleticism than previously believed.

Derrick Henry isn’t washed. Theo calls King Henry the Tom Brady of running backs.

Theo has a great feel for the game and conveys it in a fun way that makes concepts and film breakdowns easy to grasp. Even for Swifties.

Tweet of the Day

Aiyuk owners: “It’s beautiful”.

Deebo owners: “Meh”.

George Kittle owners: “We’re f***’d".

Aiyuk owners: “Always have been” 🔫 

Before we go, send your well wishes to Panthers GM Scott Fitterer after it was announced the team is looking to trade for a “true #1 WR”, a WR in his prime to help Bryce. A D.J. Moore-type would be perfect.

D.J. “was fine with it” is an amazing line.

We hope you enjoy Bears vs. Commanders tonight. It can’t be worse than the Broncos vs. Colts Thursday night game from last season (YouTube). That game made us feel like we could actually make it in the NFL.

- Jake, Eddie, Marcus & Matt

Thanks to our sponsor

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