Good morning. If anyone in your league adds Josh Kelley off the waiver wire this week, you know what to do.

And it might feel like it’s time to have “the talk” with a lot of your teams. But give it one more week before pulling an AB.

Good news to start your day: After his 100th sack, Falcons DE Calais Campbell celebrated by donating $150K worth of supplies to under-resourced teachers across America.

Since he entered the NFL, Campbell’s donated turkeys for Thanksgiving in various cities, funded three months of weekly therapy sessions for teenagers in Baltimore, and distributed hundreds of laptops to students. Love to see it.

TRIVIA

RANKINGS

Josh Jacobs falls to RB13. While Jacobs is a rare bellcow (2nd in the league in carries), his upside has been hindered by limited scoring opportunities. His passing game usage has taken a hit with Jimmy G injured. Jacobs has only 3 receptions the last 2 games and failed to hit a double-digit percentage target share on Sunday for the first time this season, per @LateRoundQB.

Dalton Kincaid rises to TE10. The rookie had 8 receptions for 75 yards on Sunday and should see consistent work going forward with Dawson Knox having wrist surgery. He’s primed for a 2nd half breakout.

See the latest rest-of-season 0.5 PPR rankings 👇️ 

STORY

Week 8 Waiver Wire

Players unlikely to be available but must-add:

• QB: Kyler Murray (Week 8 return is on the table)

• RB: Chuba Hubbard, D’Onta Foreman

• WR: Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Josh Downs, Rashee Rice, Tank Dell

• TE: Dalton Kincaid

Running Back

Of course, after everyone grabbed Zack Evans, Darrell Henderson led the Rams in carries (18), RB touches (61%) and played on all three Rams downs inside the 10-yard line. 🙃 

Henderson also had a bigger role in the passing game than Royce Freeman, where Henderson (18) outsnapped Freeman (14). With at least three more weeks without Kyren Williams, Henderson is the guy.

After everyone dropped Emari Demercado, he logged a 94% snap share in Week 7 and scored 11.4 PPR points. He looked like the Cardinals go-to RB (the other two RBs saw just one touch), but it's hard to know what the rotation will be next weekend. James Conner will miss at least two more games, but the Cardinals next three matchups (BAL, CLE, ATL) come against top rushing defenses, so temper expectations.

Ezekiel Elliott was the primary runner for the Patriots on Sunday. He’s still washed (only 31 yards on 11 attempts) but scores TDs and sees double-digit touches. Has anyone seen Zeke in the same room as Najee Harris?

Pierre Strong played 17 of the Browns’ 28 fourth-quarter snaps after Jerome Ford injured his ankle, per PFF’s Nathan Jahnke. With Ford likely to miss time, Strong could be a candidate for double-digit touches, per Pat Fitzmaurice of FantasyPros.

Latavius Murray has played almost half the snaps for the Bills the last two weeks and looks to be the 1B for James Cook. Murray has TD upside with his 6’3” 230 pound frame.

• Roschon Johnson has missed the past two games with a concussion but should return in Week 8.

• Royce Freeman averaged 5.5 yards on his 12 carries in Week 7. Worth a speculative add/hold as Henderson's hold on the 1A role can’t be that strong.

• Tyjae Spears. Rumors that the Tennessee Titans could move on from Derrick Henry.

• Don’t fall for Joshua Kelley, who had one big run.

Chris Rodriguez only played nine snaps in Week 7 but he turned his seven carries into 31 yards. That led the Washington offense in rushing.

Wide Receiver

Jayden Reed. With Christian Watson dealing with a knee injury and Luke Musgrave also injured (foot), Reed could see plenty of targets against a Vikings defense that has given up the ninth-most fantasy points per game to WRs, per Eric Moody of ESPN.

Kendrick Bourne was included as a waiver add weeks ago and listed as a start in Sunday’s newsletter. “When either DeVante Parker or JuJu Smith-Schuster is out, Bourne’s a must-start Fantasy option, with 24.4, 19.3, and now 16.3 PPR points across three games”, per Chris Towers’ Week 8 Early Waiver Wire.

Demario Douglas was the Patriots’ starting slot receiver with JuJu Smith-Schuster out for Week 7. He ran route on 70 percent of Mac Jones’ dropbacks and earned 17 percent target share, 29 percent air yards share, and was on the receiving end of half of the team’s end zone targets, per Kyle Dvorchak of NBC Sports.

Elijah Moore hasn’t done much, but he’s seen 14 targets in his past two games.

QB & TE

QB Derek Carr is dealing with shoulder and chest injuries this season, but he has still scored 15 or more fantasy points in three straight games, per Eric Moody of ESPN.

TE Taysom Hill is a streamer whenever Juwan Johnson is out, with 11 catches for 99 yards on 13 targets over the past two weeks. He even rushed five times for 18 yards and a touchdown. The Saints expect Johnson to return this week.

QB Sam Howell faces an Eagles team allowing over 18 fantasy points per game to quarterbacks, making him the best streaming option this week. He was QB13 the last time these team’s faced off, per Nathan Jahnke of PFF.

QB Gardner Minshew is the man. Despite losing four fumbles and throwing four INTs in three games, he’s been serviceable for fantasy. Only three QBs have more passing yards than Minshew over the past two weeks, and Minshew joins Jalen Hurts are the only QBs with multiple rushing touchdowns over the past two, per Nathan Jahnke of PFF.

Deeeep Dives

Likely Upside

The idea is you pick up players the week before everyone adds them off the waiver wire. Last week, the perfect pickups were Darrell Henderson and Demario Douglas.

TEN QB Will Levis (1%) was mentioned here last week but again, he might start for the Titans with Tannehill out. It’s him or Malik “Sacked” Willis.

BAL TE Isaiah Likely (1.4%) is a TE handcuff to Mark Andrews. Last season, he averaged 15.8 FPPG in games where he played over 50% of the snaps, per Ryan Heath of FantasyPoints. Having a piece of this Ravens offense is valuable.

SEA WR Jake Bobo (0.4%) made noise with DK Metcalf sidelined, catching 4 passes for 61 yards and a ridiculous toe-tapping TD. The rookie played the most snaps of any Seattle WR on Sunday (77.6%) and has earned the coaching staff’s trust.

JAX WR Jamal Agnew (0.3%) is an option for desperate teams in deeper leagues so long as Zay Jones (knee) is inactive. The 28-year-old played 51% of Jacksonville's offensive snaps and finished 3rd on the team in receptions (4) and receiving yards (36).

QUICK SLANTS

Pass-Catching Pecking Orders

📖 Read the Fantasy Football Data Dump by JJ Zacharison for Week 7. Valuable insight on many key points like these:

• Since Week 1, Christian Kirk has seen 52 targets to Calvin Ridley's 37.

• Brian Robinson played 47.8% of Washington's snaps, his second-lowest rate of the season.

• Zack Moss played one more snap than Jonathan Taylor (34 to 33), per Next Gen Stats.

📖 Read NFL Week 7 Injury Recap from Jeff Mueller (PT, DPT) from Destination Devy. A grim outlook for Christian Watson, whose right knee is “entering Treylon Burks’ left knee territory”.

📖 Read The Market Report: Week 8 by the team at Fantasy Points. They highlight the upside of James Cook, which the Bills OC isn’t unlocking:

“OC Ken Dorsey’s run game lacks imagination and their run blocking is extremely inconsistent. Cook scored on his first (and only) red-zone target of the season, which is another maddening aspect of this offense. Cook is explosive and forces defenders to miss tackles. Why not use him in the red-zone?”

🎙️Listen to the Week 7 Recap from Robert Mays and Nate Tice of The Athletic Football Show on why the Dolphins O-Line is a major concern going forward.

🎙️ Listen to Feel It or F@#K It by Bob Harris and Matt Waldman. Insight into why they are buying Josh Palmer’s performance, and what to do about the Saints WRs.

Creator of the Day

Regression to the Mean

In this new series, we highlight the best people in the fantasy football industry.

Regression to the Mean (@RTMFantasy) is a fantasy football podcast hosted by Shaun Moran, Keegan Thomson and Aidan Holler. Since August 2022, they’ve compiled close to 100 episodes, creating an atmosphere that feels like you’re just kicking it with your buddies - laughing, tilting, and everything in between, while providing data-driven information. This pre-draft Deuce Vaughn video is a great example of their vibe.

The RTM pod releases three episodes a week on their YouTube channel.

RTM’s Fantasy Jail

Arthur Smith should be wanted in all 50 states. This weekend was the final straw, with Bijan Robinson held out of the game until the very end, where he took a carry for 3 yards. Smith said Bijan had some headaches, but the team is now being investigated by the NFL for not properly updating the injury report. Per ESPN,

Here's the official language around game status reporting practices:

Thanks for joining us this morning. Remember: if Adam Gase can build a net worth of over $4 million, you can do anything. Get after it today!

- Jake, Eddie, Marcus & Sean