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Good morning.

We’re officially in the thick of football season. The air is crisp, the leaves are falling, and we finally have London games and bye weeks.

This time of year truly separates the men from the boys, so stick with us as we help you stay dialled in and ready to dominate your league.

AROUND THE LEAGUE 🚨

Rhamondre Benched

Patriots HC Jerod Mayo announced that the team will be starting Antonio Gibson over Rhamondre Stevenson, mostly due to the latter’s fumbling issues. Stevenson will still play, but this will be much more of an even split than before.

In other news, Packers WR Romeo Doubs has been suspended one game for conduct detrimental to the team. It’ll be the Jayden Reed and Dontayvion Wicks show today.🚀

Injury Report 🚑

Here’s how some of the fantasy-relevant names around the league are trending…

👍 Expected to play:

• Brian Robinson

• David Njoku

👎 Not expected to play:

• Evan Engram

• Anthony Richardson

• Devin Singletary

• Christian Watson

• Dameon Pierce

🤷‍♂️ Gametime decision:

• Trey McBride

• George Kittle

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STARTS & SITS 🧐

Quarterback

✅ Start ‘Em:

Brock Purdy vs ARI: The Cardinals have given up the 7th-most fantasy points to opposing QBs, with Josh Allen and Jayden Daniels each carving them up for 26+ fantasy points in Weeks 1 and 2. That bodes well for Purdy, who has scored at least 23.3 fantasy points in each of his three meetings with Arizona, and is averaging 27.6 fantasy points over that span, per CBSSports’ Jamey Eisenberg.

Geno Smith vs NYG: Smith heads into today with the most passing yards (1,182) in the NFL. He's also thrown more passes than any other QB in the league, and is taking on a Giants D that rank bottoms 10 in TD rate and passer rating against, per FootballGuys’ Bob Harris. Look for Geno to stay hot in his revenge game.

Trevor Lawrence vs IND: Lawrence has been one of the worst QBs in the league this season, but this could be the week you can finally start him confidently. The Colts have surrendered at least 20 fantasy points to opposing QBs in three of four weeks. The one week they didn’t was against Malik Willis and the Green Bay Packers, per USA Today’s Joe Hoefling.

❌ Sit ‘Em:

Patrick Mahomes vs NO: It feels wrong to do this, but Mahomes has topped 17 fantasy points once in his last 13 starts, and has topped 26 only once since the start of the 2023 season, per NFL.com’s Michael F. Florio. The floor is low and the ceiling is not all that high.

Dak Prescott @ PIT: He’s scored fewer than 17 fantasy points in three of his first four games and takes on a Steelers D that hasn’t given up more than 15 fantasy points to an opposing QB yet this season, per S.I.’s Michael Fabiano.

Sam Darnold vs NYJ: While this is another intriguing QB revenge game, New York is allowing the 2nd-fewest passing fantasy points per dropback and yards per pass attempt, per Fantasy Points’ Graham Barfield. They haven’t allowed a top-12 QB scorer in four straight games, so this could be the day that Darnold comes back to Earth.

Running Back

✅ Start ‘Em:

Javonte Williams vs LV: He’s the Broncos' clear leader in backfield snaps and is heavily involved in the passing game, with 49% route participation and a 20% target rate. Meanwhile, Vegas is conceding more than five yards per carry to RBs while also allowing nearly six yards per reception, per NFL.com’s Marcas Grants.

Chuba Hubbard @ CHI: Hubbard has been the RB4 over the last two weeks, and Chicago is a run-funnel defense, allowing the 2nd-fewest fantasy points to QBs but the 9th-most to RBs, per Yahoo’s Dalton Del Don.

Najee Harris vs DAL: “The Cowboys surrendered at least 20 PPR points to running backs in each of the first three weeks. Harris has been used heavily as Pittsburgh's feature back, and this week's matchup should serve him well, especially if he gets a few receptions.” — Joe Hoefling

❌ Sit ‘Em:

Rico Dowdle @ PIT: “The Steelers are No. 2 in fewest fantasy points allowed to opposing RBs, and Pittsburgh has allowed just one TD to a RB this season. Dowdle is just a FLEX at best in Week 5 in the majority of leagues.” — Jamey Eisenberg

Zack Moss vs BAL: Only the Chiefs and Steelers have allowed fewer fantasy points to opposing RBs than Baltimore this season, per Bleacher Report’s Kristopher Knox. Plus, Chase Brown has been splitting carries and even taking some goal line work recently.

James Conner @ SF: If you’re in a shallower league and have other options, you can bench Conner today. The 49ers have yet to allow a back to average more than 4.0 yards per carry against them this year and they rank 6th in the NFL in run defense DVOA, per Bob Harris.

Wide Receiver

✅ Start ‘Em:

Diontae Johnson @ CHI: Diontae is a must-start with Andy Dalton under center. In the past two games, he’s racked up 27 targets, 313 air yards and seven end-zone targets while topping 21 fantasy points and ranking as a top-10 WR each week, per Michael F. Florio.

Dontayvion Wicks @ LAR: The Rams are giving up a league-high 2.68 yards per route run to receivers aligned out wide, per Graham Barfield, and Wicks should be the go-to guy in that spot for Green Bay with both Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs out. Last week, with Watson leaving the game early, Wicks led the team in targets (13) en route to a 5/78/2 performance.

Check out another of Ryan Heath’s threads for more insight on Wicks:

Wan’Dale Robinson @ SEA: He currently ranks 5th in the league in receptions, and with Malik Nabers out with a concussion, he could catch double-digit passes in a negative gamescript. He’s worth a FLEX play in PPR formats.

❌ Sit ‘Em:

Jordan Addison vs NYJ: Addison is coming off a two-TD game, but he saw just five opportunities. Sam Darnold is due for regression, with his 10.4% TD rate being miles above his career mark of 3.9%, and the Jets have allowed the 2nd-fewest passing yards and the fewest fantasy points to perimeter receivers this season, per Dalton Del Don.

Jaylen Waddle @ NE: The Dolphins offense has been unwatchable without Tua, and Waddle has suffered the consequences. He hasn’t reached 50 scrimmage yards since the opener, and there aren’t any signs of that changing.

Demarcus Robinson vs GB: “Robinson has totaled just three catches on seven targets for 69 scoreless yards with Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua out the past two weeks. Even in Sunday's plus matchup against the Packers, Robinson can't be trusted in fantasy lineups.” — DraftSharks’ Shane Hallam

Tight End

✅ Start ‘Em:

Tucker Kraft vs LAR: The Rams defense has allowed the 5th-most fantasy points per game to TEs and are dead last in defensive pass DVOA against the position, per USA Today’s Tom Viera. Look for Kraft to take advantage of both the matchup and the extra opportunities due to Watson and Doubs’ absence.

Zach Ertz vs CLE: “Ertz already owns two top-ten fantasy finishes in 2024. He’s also coming off a Week 4 that produced a season-high 86% route rate. With Jayden Daniels performing at a high level, Ertz will retain a TE1 ceiling.” — DraftSharks’ Jared Smola

Tyler Conklin @ MIN: He has had over 17% of the team’s targets in each of the last two weeks, and the Vikings have given up two of the four TE1 overall weeks this year, per Jared Smola.

❌ Sit ‘Em:

David Njoku @ WAS: He’s expected to return this week after missing the last three games with a high ankle sprain, but if you’ve gotten by without him so far, you’re better off doing so for another week. The Browns’ passing game has been atrocious, and Njoku could still be limited in his first game back.

Dalton Schultz vs BUF: He hasn’t finished better than TE19 yet this season and Tank Dell returns to the lineup today, too. There are just too many mouths to feed in this offense.

Mark Andrews @ CIN: After back-to-back goose eggs, he simply can’t be trusted.

POLL 📊

BEST BETS 💰

BTJ All the Way

2024 record: 7-5 (1-2 last week)

🥇 Brian Thomas Jr. OVER 53.5 receiving yards (-113)

• “BTJ has at least 47 yards in all four games this season, going over his projected total each week. His four most comparable players against the Colts have ALL gone over 60 yards when they faced Indianapolis earlier this season.” — FantasyPros’ Andrew Erickson 

🥈 Chuba Hubbard anytime TD (+115)

• With Andy Dalton now at QB, Hubbard has seen his workload increase, scoring a rushing TD and generating 104 rushing yards on 18 carries against the Bengals a week after he recorded a receiving TD. This dual-threat capability makes him a constant scoring threat and a Bears’ defense that has conceded five rushing TDs in just four games, per Pamela Maldonado of Sharp Football Analysis

🥉 Josh Jacobs OVER 67.5 rushing yards (-113)

• “The Rams have allowed the most rushing yards out of any defense in the NFL through the first four weeks, and we could see this game get away from the Rams in the second half if they fail to keep up with Green Bay's explosive offense. That would mean more rushes for Josh Jacobs and more opportunities for him to get over this number.” — Sports Grid’s David Connelly

Disclaimer: Gambling should be enjoyed as a form of entertainment. Never gamble more than you can afford to lose.

QUICK SLANTS 👀

📖 Read Adam Ronis of FantasyLife’s Recap of Thursday Night Football’s Fireworks, where he answers essential questions, like “Can we trust Kyle Pitts after his big game?” and “Is Darnell Mooney for real?”

📖 Read Dalton Del Don of Yahoo’s The Fantasy Football Numbers Do Lie: Exposing Stats for Week 5 and Beyond, where he attempts to identify misleading numbers that are worth a closer look.

📖 Read Steven Ruiz of The Ringer’s breakdown of Kliff Kingsbury and Jayden Daniels’ success in Washington. One of their keys to success: No Huddle.

🎙️ Listen to J.J. Zachariason’s most recent Late-Round Perspectives episode with FantasyLife’s Dwain McFarland. The two discuss McFarland’s journey in the fantasy space, along with their experiences with fantasy football data analysis and a great process to incorporate for waivers.

📺 Watch Baker Mayfield go undercover as Gus Swayze for Eli Manning’s “The Undercovers” show on Prime:

TWEET OF THE DAY

Good luck this week.

And remember: you miss 100% of the shots you don’t take, so if you want to start Dontayvion Wicks over Tank Dell or Erick All over Mark Andrews, go for it — we won’t judge you.

- Marcus