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- 🏈 Amari Cooper & Week 5 Targets
🏈 Amari Cooper & Week 5 Targets
Players to buy & sell before Week 5, along with a fantasy slant on the latest news in the NFL.
Good morning.
Apologies for the delayed post. We had some technical difficulties.
But the good news? Starting tonight, we begin a stretch of 55 consecutive days with either a college football or NFL game.🙌
So say goodbye to your loved ones and buckle up, because you’ve got a couch cushion with your name on it.
Today's newsletter highlights:
🚨 Davante Adams’ trade request
📈 Buy Amari Cooper
📉 Sell Ladd?!
🧐 Other buy lows & sell highs around the league
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AROUND THE LEAGUE 🚨
Adams Wants Out
Davante Adams // Sky Sports
Davante Adams has officially requested a trade, with the Jets being his preferred destination. Ian Rapoport also reported that the Saints, Steelers, Ravens, Bills, Cowboys and 49ers have all either inquired about the six-time Pro Bowler, or are places Adams would be happy landing. The Jets seem like the most likely landing spot, teaming him up with his former QB Aaron Rodgers.
Davante Adams’ hamstring after being traded to the Jets:
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POLL 📊
Which team would be the best landing spot for Davante Adams (fantasy-wise)? |
MARKET TRENDS 🧐
Running Back
K9 // Yahoo Sports
🚀 Buy high on Ken Walker. He’s currently posting career-high efficiency (5.7 YPC) and his best PFF Rushing Grade (91.8), while on pace for 51 receptions on 68 targets through the air, per @GuruFantasyWrld. He’s the RB2 in PPG (26.3) behind only Alvin Kamara, and while he’ll regress on TDs (four in two games vs 1.4 TDs expected), his expected PPG (17.8) is still Top-10 at the position — above both Jahmyr Gibbs and Bijan Robinson.
💰 Buy Tony Pollard. He’s currently top-15 among all RBs in Brocken Tackle Percentage (14.3%), Miss Tackle Percentage (8.0%), and Evasion Percentage (22.0%), per Joe Orrico. He’s playing nearly two-thirds of the team’s snaps and has out-carried Tyjae Spears 61 to 27. He’s their RB1.
💰 Buy Brian Robinson, Jr.
Brian Robinson is a RB1 disguised as a RB2.
Top-10 in:
⁃ Rushing attempts (66)
⁃ YAC/attempt (3.87)
⁃ Fantasy Points (63.5)Same age as James Cook (25), averaging essentially the same PPG (16.6-15.9).
One is valued RB7 in dynasty – the other is valued RB17.
— David J. Gautieri (@GuruFantasyWrld)
5:27 PM • Sep 30, 2024
👀 Monitor the Patriots RB situation. HC Jerod Mayo is reportedly considering starting Antonio Gibson over Rhamondre Stevenson, since the latter has fumbled in each of the team’s first four games. If Gibson’s available on your waiver wire, scoop him up.
📉 Sell James Conner (especially in PPR). He ranks just 29th among RBs in route participation and 54th in target share, per Matt Schauf of Draft Sharks. He’s had solid production on the ground recently, making him enticing to potential trade partners, but his schedule toughens up the next three weeks with the 49ers (5th in rush DVOA), Packers (9th), and Chargers (12th) on the horizon.
💧 Drop Zamir White & Gus Edwards in shallower leagues (if you haven’t already). They lack explosion and are just plodding away on useless carries at this point.
Wide Receiver
More like Amari “Pooper” so far, am I right…..? // NFL.com
💰 Buy Amari Cooper. With the Browns offense looking like one of the worst in the league, he should be fairly easy to acquire. While the production hasn’t been there, his 29 targets rank 3rd amongst all WRs and his 420 air yards are the highest in the league, per Joe Orrico. He also had an 80-yard TD wiped off the board thanks to a holding penalty and has had some uncharacteristic drops early on. Expect him to bounce back.
✋ Hold Tee Higgins. He has 17.8 expected fantasy points per game, but has actually only scored 9.5. He’s also earned two more first read targets (31% share) than Chase (26%), per FantasyPoints’ Graham Barfield. He hasn’t produced like you’ve wanted him to yet, but it’s coming.
👀 Lock Brian Thomas Jr. into your lineup every week. This kid is for real. He’s taken over as the Jags’ clear WR1, earning more first-read targets as the season progresses:
Week 1 - 25.0%
Week 2 - 17.4%
Week 3 - 22.4%
Week 4 - 33.3%
(per @FantasyPtsData)
HC Doug Pederson had high praise for the rookie, calling him a competitor and saying they’re “gonna continue throwing the ball his way,” so look for him to be a steady part of the team’s gameplan.
Brian Thomas Jr. truly might already be one of the most terrifying coverage assignments in the NFL
— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23)
2:50 PM • Sep 30, 2024
🚀 Rashid Shaheed is New Orleans’ WR1. He ranked 9th in the NFL with a 41% first-read target rate in Week 4, per @FantasyPtsData — the highest mark of his career. His first-read target rate on the season currently sits at 32.4%, compared to just 27.9% for Chris Olave, per CBSSports’ Jacob Gibbs.
📉 Sell Ladd McConkey. He leads LA in targets and has been coming on strong as of late and several analysts are pounding the table for him as a buy candidate. So why sell? The Chargers are 27th in pass rate over expected (-10.4%) and 31st in actual pass rate (49.3%), per Chris Dell. Factor in Justin Herbert’s shaky health, and it’s easy to see how the volume might not be there to support high-end production. Sell high on a young, exciting prospect with a cool name.
Tight End
Brock Bowers // USA Today
🚀 Buy high on Brock Bowers. He’ll be tough to get, but the rookie is currently the TE3 and could see a huge boost if Davante Adams gets traded.
Players averaging 5+ yards of separation this season
☠️ Brock Bowers
End of list.
h/t @NextGenStats
— The 33rd Team (@The33rdTeamFB)
12:05 AM • Oct 2, 2024
💰 Buy Tucker Kraft. He beat out Luke Musgrave for the Packers TE1 spot, and…
Tucker Kraft averaged an 87% route participation rate in seven games without Luke Musgrave last season
He had six targets in four of those seven games and produced 60+ receiving yards twice
If Musgrave misses Week 5 (along w/ Christian Watson), Kraft quickly becomes a top-10 TE
— Adam Koffler (@AdamKoffler)
2:31 AM • Oct 3, 2024
✋ Hold Mark Andrews. You pretty much have no choice at this point, seeing as hardly anyone would trade for him and there aren’t a lot of options on the waiver wire at TE. But there is hope — Lamar Jackson only attempted 15 and 18 passes in their last two games, which helps to explain Andrews’ goose eggs. Their passing game as a whole should wake up eventually, and so too will Andrews.
Although I gotta admit, this is kinda sad:
2024 receiving fantasy points, standard scoring.
Mark Andrews: 6.5
Jared Goff: 6.7— Raymond Summerlin (@RMSummerlin)
1:29 PM • Oct 1, 2024
😓 On the other hand, you can probably give up on Kyle Pitts. New year, new coaching staff, same Pitts. Maybe he’s the problem?
💧 Drop Dalton Schultz. He had his best game of the season in Week 4, and it was still just three catches for 34 yards (with Tank Dell out).
QUICK SLANTS 👀
📖 Read Fantasy Football Points Allowed: Best & Worst Matchups (Week 5) from FantasyPros’ Ted Chmyz where he uses the FantasyPros Fantasy Points Allowed tool to make some key start/sit decisions.
📖 Read Who to Drop Ahead of Week 5 from The Athletic’s Gary Davenport. The list is highlighted by Bears teammates Caleb Williams and Keenan Allen, among others.
📖 Read Matthew Berry’s Week 5 Rankings over at NBCSports to see where your players stack up.
🎙️Listen to the latest episode of CBSSports’ Fantasy Football Today podcast where the guys discuss possible trades, redraft round one, play some Fantasy Jeopardy, and preview tonight’s matchup.
📺 Watch Rashee Rice’s mom allegedly steal a package from a neighbor’s door😬
Rashee Rice's mom stealing a package from a neighbor's porch while wearing a
"Momma-Rice" jersey is insane 💀Apple don’t fall far from the tree
— NFL Memes (@NFL_Memes)
12:40 AM • Oct 3, 2024
TWEET OF THE DAY
Enjoy Bucs vs. Falcons tonight.
See you Sunday.
- Marcus
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