Good morning.

Our hearts go out to all those affected by Hurricane Milton, as well as the recent tornadoes that swept through Florida’s Gulf Coast. Those looking to lend a helping hand can donate to the American Red Cross HERE.

In the meantime, we’ll do our best to shift the focus to brighter horizons as we dive into the latest trends in fantasy football that are shaping the season…

AROUND THE LEAGUE 🚨

Saleh the Scapegoat

The NY Jets have fired HC Robert Saleh after a 2-3 start. There are many theories as to why the move was made… from Woody Johnson (former ambassador to the UK) being embarrassed in front of his British friends, to Saleh wanting to fire Aaron Rodgers’ BFF, OC Nathaniel Hackett, to ongoing beef between Saleh and Rodgers. Regardless, it’s clear that something had to change, even though Salah (a defensive HC) did his part on his preferred side of the ball:

Injury Report 🚑

In other news, the injury bug continues to bite big-name players:

• Texans WR Nico Collins (hamstring) was placed on IR and will miss at least the next four games

• Vikings RB Aaron Jones (hip) is considered week-to-week

• Colts WR Michael Pittman (back) will be out multiple weeks

• Saints QB Derek Carr (oblique) will miss multiple weeks, too. Rookie Spencer Rattler will start in his place

• Browns TE David Njoku is now dealing with a knee injury after returning from a high ankle sprain

And we have two new starting QBs as well, with Patriots QB Drake Maye officially getting the nod over Jacoby Brissett, and Raiders QB Aidan O’Connell taking over for Gardner Minshew.

Meanwhile, Steelers QB Russell Wilson is now a full-go, but will backup Justin Fields for the time being.

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MARKET TRENDS 🧐

Quarterback

💰 Buy Sam Darnold. He had a tough game against a solid Jets D last week, but he’s already through the hardest part of the schedule. It should be relatively smooth sailing the rest of the way: vs DET, at LAR, vs IND, at JAX, at TEN, at CHI, vs ARI, vs ATL, vs CHI, at SEA, and vs GB (pointed out by FantasyPoints’ John Hansen). If healthy, Darnold will be a QB1 this year.

🔥 Rookie QBs are heating up. We already know all about Jayden Daniels’ unprecedented success. But don’t forget about Bo Nix and Caleb Williams:

📉 We’ve said it before, but we’ll say it again: Sell Patrick Mahomes. He’s averaging just 14.2 fantasy points per game (less than Daniel Jones), and if his name wasn’t Patrick Mahomes, he’d probably be on waivers.

Running Back

💰 Buy Chase Brown. This season, Brown has more rushing yards (230-211) and receiving yards (39-19) than Zack Moss, plus the same number of TDs (3) despite receiving 16 fewer carries and three fewer targets. Brown is clearly the more explosive back, averaging 5.6 yards per carry and posting the 4th-best rush EPA per snap in the NFL (10.7), per Sleeper.

Moss tweaked his ankle Sunday, so Brown could see an increased workload against the Giants on SNF. If Brown has a big game on national TV, the window to acquire him on the semi-cheap will slam shut.

💰 Buy Breece Hall. He’s been struggling lately, but don’t forget he was the RB6 over the first three weeks, averaging 96.7 scrimmage yards and 17.7 fantasy points per game, totalling 15.8 or more in every contest. And now heading into Week 6, the Jets take on a Buffalo Bills D that has surrendered the most fantasy points per game to RBs this season (30.7), per FantasyPros’ Mike Fanelli. Now’s the time to pounce.

📈 Trade for David Montgomery. He’s boring and shares a backfield with the much more exciting Jahmyr Gibbs. But through four games this season, Montgomery is the RB16 and has a TD and at least 18 fantasy points in each contest.

✋ Hold D’Andre Swift (for now). He’s come back from the dead, earning 23 opportunities in two straight wins. He carried the offense (165 of the team’s 264 yards) in the Week 4 defeat of the Rams but then saw the Bears rally for a season-high 424 total yards against Carolina.

Strongly positive matchups with Jacksonville (32nd in total defensive DVOA) and Washington (24th) the next two games bode well for Swift. Then look to sell him ahead of Week 12, when he begins a five-game stretch that includes both meetings with Minnesota and Detroit, along with a tough matchup in San Francisco (per DraftSharks’ Matt Schauf).

📉 Sell Alvin Kamara (reeeeaaaallly high). He’s the top scoring non-QB in fantasy football, but the last time he played every game of a season was his rookie year in 2017, when he was 22-years-old and splitting touches with Mark Ingram (per Razzball’s Brandon Myers). AK’s been amazing so far, but you already got his massive game against Dallas, and he’s had just one TD in the three games since then. If you’re top-heavy and can get a massive haul from a RB-needy team, go for it.

Wide Receiver

💰 Buy Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle. Test the waters with your league’s Hill/Waddle manager to see how desperate they are. If Tua Tagovailoa does return in Week 8, Miami’s schedule sets up nicely for an offensive resurgence:

• Cardinals (29th in pass DVOA)

• Bills (10th)

• Rams (31st)

• Raiders (26th)

(per Matt Schauf)

💰 Buy Rome Odunze. Chicago has used a lot of play-action this year, and Odunze happens to have a 58% air yard share on PA passes, per John Hansen. Plus, he’s only scored one TD thus far, but his profile and red zone usage suggest that could improve:

If Caleb Williams continues the recent trajectory he’s on, Odunze should see his production improve.

✋ Hold Dontayvion Wicks. It didn’t work out last week, as he caught only two passes for 20 yards. But he had a team-high seven targets, a 28% target share, 43% air yards share, and 91 air yards (per FantasyPros’ Andrew Erickson). He struggled with drops, but the usage is there to bank on a bounce back.

📉 Sell Chris Olave. He’s been the WR33 despite New Orleans averaging the 4th-most points (28.0) over the first five weeks, per Yahoo’s Dalton Del Don. Rashid Shaheed has outperformed him in nearly every metric, the Saints have been one of the most run-heavy teams in the league, and now Derek Carr is set to miss multiple weeks with an oblique injury. Cut ties.

Tight End

💰 Buy high on Tucker Kraft. He’s currently the TE4 and has run a route on 77% of dropbacks while seeing a 15% target share — but that has increased to an 84% route rate and 18% target share with Jordan Love under center, per NBCSports’ Eric Samulski. Romeo Doubs is disgruntled, Christian Watson has a history of injuries, and Dontayvion Wicks has plenty of talent but a lot of inconsistency in his game, leaving plenty of meat on the bone for Kraft in this high-powered offense.

📉 Sell Kyle Pitts. “Pitts had a strong performance in Week 5, posting seven receptions and 88 yards on eight targets. The performance ignited hope in Pitts truthers everywhere. The sad reality is that his target share numbers were still below 15%. He saw his highest snap share since Week 1, though, and faces the Cardinals next week, which opens a great window to sell high on the volatile tight end.” — QBList’s Marco Enriquez

💰 Buy Zach Ertz. The TE landscape is brutal, so taking a player seeing plenty of looks in what has turned out to be an elite offense should be a no-brainer. Against Cleveland, Ertz caught just two of his eight targets (30% target share) for 10 yards, leaving 70 air yards on the table. He was also targeted four times in the red zone but only caught one pass, with no TDs, per Andrew Erickson. He didn’t capitalize last week, but the opportunities are there — which is more than we can say for most TEs.

POLL 📊

QUICK SLANTS 👀

📖 Read Fantasy Points’ Week 6 Market Report, your one-stop shop for all the movement from a big weekend of NFL football. The report highlights several players who stood out for fantasy-relevant reasons — the good reasons, the bad reasons, and the in-between.

📊 Check out FantasyPros’ Trade Value Chart to help you negotiate your next move. The chart features positional rankings, upcoming schedules, and a numerical value assigned to each player to help you figure out what’s a fair deal and what’s a rip-off.

📖 Read Sheil Kapadia of The Ringer’s NFL Week 5 Under Review, where he breaks down the five biggest storylines following last week’s action.

🎙️Listen to The Fantasy Footballers’ Fantasy Draft Re-Do, where they pick the top 24 players for the rest of the 2024 season.

📺 Watch the latest episode of Bleacher Report’s Gridiron Heights. If you’ve never seen it before, it’s a must-watch every week if you want a good laugh🤣:

TWEET OF THE DAY

#StatOfTheYear

Enjoy 49ers @ Seahawks tonight.

And remember: your bad draft picks are nothing compared to the Browns selling their soul for Deshaun Watson. So cheer up… it could always be worse!

- Marcus