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š Tank Bigsby & Week 6 Waivers
Players to add ahead of Week 6, including deeeeep dives.
Good morning.
Before we begin, we first want to acknowledge Hurricane Milton and its potential impact on Floridaās gulf coast and the surrounding areas. Our thoughts and prayers go out to all who might be affected in any way, shape or form.
Hopefully fantasy football can serve as a pleasant distraction during these difficult times.
Today's newsletter highlights:
šŖ Tank comes up BIGsby
š„ Jalen Tolbert & his unusual sprain
š Drake Maye SZN?!
š¤æ Ray-Ray & other deeeeep dives
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WAIVER WIRE š§
Running Back
Tank Bigsby // USA Today
Jags RB Tank Bigsby has looked like the best pure runner in Jacksonville all season:
Tank Bigsby this season:
* 1st in Rush Yards Over Expectation Per Attempt
* 3rd in PFF grades
* 50.0% Success Rate
* 1st in Yards Per CarryTravis Etienne this season:
* 18th in Rush Yards Over Expectation Per Attempt
* 55th in PFF grades
* 56.6% Success Rate
* 27th in Yards Perā¦ x.com/i/web/status/1ā¦ā Adam Levitan (@adamlevitan)
3:46 PM ā¢ Oct 7, 2024
Etienne is still ātheir guy,ā according to HC Doug Pederson, but Bigsbyās production canāt be ignored.
Giants RB Tyrone Tracy Jr. got the start on Sunday with Devin Singletary injured and took full advantage. He finished with 129 rushing yards (7.17 YPC) and became the only RB in the NFL to gain positive yardage on every single run in a game with 15+ rush attempts during the 2024 season, per CBSSportsā Jacob Gibbs. If Singletaryās injury lingers, Tracy could be in for another big game in Week 6 against a Bengals D thatās allowed the 8th most rushing yards per game. And even if Singletary returns, Tracy has earned a larger role.
Vikings RB Ty Chandler should continue to see plenty of opportunities given Aaron Jonesā mounting injuries. Heās a solid handcuff to roster with Minnesota being so explosive.
Bears RB Roschon Johnson has taken over for Khalil Herbert as the teamās primary backup RB. Heās racked up 17/51/3 rushing in Weeks 4-5, scoring three times on goal-line opportunities. Unfortunately for Roschon, DāAndre Swift has woken up the last two weeks, but if he declines again, RoJo has proven he can produce.
Ravens RB Justice Hill āwas quiet in Sundayās OT shootout, but heās just a week removed from delivering 96 total yards and one score against Buffalo. Heās headed into a pair of fantasy-friendly matchups (Washington, at Tampa Bay), so he should remain a viable flex option.ā ā Yahooās Andy Behrens
Dolphins RB Jaylen Wright is worth a stash in deeper leagues after rushing 13 times for 86 yards (6.6 YPC) with DeāVon Achane out. Miamiās on a bye next week, which could allow Achane to heal up. But if not, Wright should thrive in a committee with Raheem Mostert.
Wide Receiver
Darnell Mooney // ESPN
Falcons WR Darnell Mooney blew up for 31.5 PPR fantasy points last Thursday and has 50+ receiving yards in four straight weeks. Heās everything we hoped Kyle Pitts would beā¦
Darnell Mooney is turning into a #Falcons GEM.
ā¢ 2nd in the NFL in intended air yards (538)
ā¢ 66.7% BURN percentage (tied with JaāMarr Chase, above Terry McLaurin, Ceedee Lamb, DK Metcalf)
ā¢ 1st in SNP% (snap share) league-wide (93.9)ā Cam Marino (@MarinoNFL)
6:00 PM ā¢ Oct 7, 2024
Cowboys WR Jalen Tolbert stole the show Sunday night, catching the game-winning TD after āspraining his fāing nuts.ā Heās been on the field for at least 67% of the snaps in every game, and is the clear WR2 in Dallas:
Over the past four Dallas Cowboys games:
Targets
31 - CeeDee Lamb
27 - Jalen TolbertPPR points
62.7 - Lamb
54.5 - Tolbertā Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23)
12:53 PM ā¢ Oct 7, 2024
Colts WR Josh Downs has been lighting it up with Joe Flacco under center, scoring 15.9+ fantasy points in each of the last two games. Unfortunately for Downs, Anthony Richardson could be returning to the lineup, so we just have to hope he finds a way to get him the ball.
Chiefs WR JuJu Smith-Schuster stepped up big in Rashee Riceās absence, finishing with seven receptions for 130 yards last night. He was the PPR WR27 in KC back in 2022, so the chemistry with Mahomes is clearly there.
QB & TE
Drake Maye // S.I.
Patriots QB Drake Maye could potentially start Sunday vs the Texans, per ESPNās Mike Reiss. He flashed a ton of talent in the preseason, so heās worth a speculative add just in case.
Broncos QB Bo Nix threw for multiple scores for the first time last week and punched in his third rushing TD of the year. Heās now on pace for 405 yards and 10 TDs on the ground, per NBCSportsā Kyle Dvorchak.
Giants QB Daniel Jones is up to 15.4 fantasy points per game. which ranks 20th among QBs. He has been helped by his rushing ability, as his 34 carries during the season are the 5th most among QBs, per PFFās Nathan Jahnke. Heās a worthy bye week fill-in or QB2 in Superflex leagues.
If theyāre somehow available in your leagues, scoop up Bears QB Caleb Williams and Falcons QB Kirk Cousins. Those should be no-brainers.
Also, Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa could have been dropped. Heās reportedly symptom-free and can return to the team in Week 8 after their bye next week.
Jets TE Tyler Conklin seems to make this list every week after seeing at least six targets in each of the Jetsā last three games. He wonāt light up the stat sheet, but you could do worse if youāre in a pinch.
Bucs TE Cade Otton has reached 44+ receiving yards in three straight games, totaling 16/143 receiving on 21 targets for 29.3 fantasy points in Weeks 3-5, per Fantasy Points.
Bears TE Cole Kmet has a 73%+ route participation rate in each of his last three games, per J.J. Zachariason. He has only one top-12 performance thus far, but could have more in the future with Caleb Williams making big strides as of late.
Vikings TE T.J. Hockenson is back at practice and could be activated soon. If your league doesnāt have an IR, he could be available.
D/ST
Philadelphia Eagles // Athlon Sports
The Philadelphia Eagles take on the Cleveland Browns this week, who are historically awful this season:
Worst offenses through 5 games by DVOA. It's time for Jameis Winston. #Browns
ā Aaron Schatz š (@ASchatzNFL)
12:11 PM ā¢ Oct 7, 2024
The Houston Texans have a soft match-up of their own in New England. Similar to the Browns, the Pats' offense has been a like a stick in the mud, totalling only 12.4 PPG (2nd-fewest), 250.8 yards per contest (2nd-fewest), and 4.3 plays per game (2nd-fewest), per FanDuelās Riley Thomas. Even if they go with Drake Maye, itās still a rookie getting his first start in the league.
The Indianapolis Colts take on the Tennessee Titans, who average the most turnovers per game (2.3) and the 3rd-fewest total yards per game (256.3).
āItās Will Levis time.ā - Will Levis
ā Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz)
5:50 PM ā¢ Sep 15, 2024
POLL š
Which backup RB's success seems most sustainable? |
DEEP DIVES š¤æ
Billy Jeansā Schedule Looks Promising
Will Levis // NBC
Stash these players on your bench before they blow up. Last week, the perfect pickup was Tank Bigsby.
Titans QB Will Levis (3.8%) should be available in single-QB leagues and is worth a stash. Itās been a rough start for him, highlighted by some hilarious still shots:
Will Levis is on a generational run
ā GhettoGronk (@TheGhettoGronk)
1:00 AM ā¢ Oct 1, 2024
But the good news is that from Week 12-17, the Titans face the Jacksonville Jaguars twice, the Indianapolis Colts, the Washington Commanders, the Houston Texans and the Cincinnati Bengals. That gives them four games against teams that have allowed the 4th-most fantasy points to QBs, along with the 7th- and 14th-most, per Nathan Jahnke.
Patriots WR JaāLynn Polk (12.5%) could flash if Drake Maye gets the nod in New England:
Ja'Lynn Polk has arrived.
Currently ranks 3rd-best of 101-qualifying receivers in separation win rate (@FantasyPtsData)
Route share spiked to 82% last week (up from 55%) and has seen an increase in target share every week (4.2% > 7.7% > 11.1% > 21.9%)
ā Scott Barrett (@ScottBarrettDFB)
4:52 PM ā¢ Oct 1, 2024
Falcons WR Ray-Ray McCloud (7%) has posted season-best performances in back-to-back games, including a 6/66 receiving line on 9 targets (15.5%) in an overtime victory over the Buccaneers. Heās also reached 42+ receiving yards in 4-of-5 games and 37+ scrimmage yards in every game, per FantasyPoints.
Giants WR Darius Slayton (4.2%) delivered a monster day (8/122/1) with Malik Nabers out. Daniel Jones isnāt likely to support two stud WRs on a regular basis, but you can comfortably put Slayton in your lineup if Nabers continues to miss time.
Cardinals WR Michael Wilson (12.3%) has seen target shares of 26.5%, 31.8%, and 20.0% over his last three games, and has just two fewer targets than Marvin Harrison Jr. during that stretch, per J.J. Zachariason. While it hasnāt yet manifested in the form of top tier fantasy production, the opportunities are there in a high-powered offense.
QUICK SLANTS š
š Read Nathan Jahnke of PFFās 10 Biggest Reactions to NFL Week 5 ($), including Adonai Mitchell and Alec Pierce making the case for more targets going forward.
š Read Eric Moody of ESPNās Fantasy Football Rookie Watch for the latest updates and insight on rookies at each position.
š Read Heath Cummings of CBSSportsā Fantasy Football Rankings Risers and Fallers. One of the biggest fallers is Breece Hall, who has now fallen out of Cummingsā top-12 at the position.
šļø Listen to Out of Bounds: How to Fix Your Underperforming Team from the FantasyPros Fantasy Football Podcast. Chris Welsh and Scott Bogman offer advice on how to optimize your trades and make savvy moves ahead of Week 6.
šŗ Watch Kyler Murrayās announcement of his newest partnership with Call of Duty. Reminder that Black Ops 6 comes out October 25th, for those who might want to sell high before thenā¦
To the trolls who memed me into a bag, thank you!
Iām officially launching my @CallofDuty partnership! #CODPartnership#TheReplacer#BlackOps6
ā Kyler Murray (@K1)
6:02 PM ā¢ Oct 7, 2024
TWEET OF THE DAY
My wife after cooking dinner, cleaning the house and putting the kids to bed while I drunkenly submitted a few losing DraftKings lineups
ā Cody Main (@cmain7)
3:08 AM ā¢ Oct 7, 2024
Best of luck on the waiver wire.
And remember: Denverās Riley Moss became the first white cornerback in 22 years to have an interception in an NFL game, so you can accomplish anything you set your mind to.
- Marcus
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