In partnership with

Good morning.

The bad news: you had a few too many drinks last night and slept through the start of Jags vs Pats.

The good news: you slept through the start of Jags vs Pats.

There are some real football games going on today with some tough start/sit decisions and injury considerations. And we’re here to help you sort through all of it so you can get that dub.

AROUND THE LEAGUE 🚨

Nick Chubb to Make Season Debut

The Browns have officially activated Nick Chubb ahead of their game against the Bengals today. It’s great to see a superstar like Chubb return from such a scary injury, but don’t expect him to be fantasy-relevant from the jump. HC Kevin Stefanski called Chubb’s workload “a work in progress,” so he’ll likely be on a pitch count for a while.

Injury Report 🚑

Here’s how other big names around the league are trending…

👍 Expected to play:

• Rhamondre Stevenson

• Rachaad White

• Aaron Jones

• Brian Robinson Jr.

• Diontae Johnson

• Michael Pittman Jr.

• Josh Downs

• JuJu Smith-Schuster

👎 Not expected to play:

• Will Levis

• Jakobi Meyers

🤷‍♂️ Gametime decision:

• Ken Walker

• Travis Etienne

• Zamir White

• Ray Davis

• Cooper Kupp

• Diontae Johnson

• Ladd McConkey

• Dontayvion Wicks

SPONSOR

The Oracle, by Polymarket

The Oracle by Polymarket is news with skin in the game. This weekly newsletter gives you insights on global headlines from the world’s largest prediction market, powered by traders around the world with millions of dollars on the line. Every week, we break down how the market is interpreting major events—whether it’s politics, culture, or global news. See into the future with real-time odds from traders around the world who are betting on the future.

Subscribe to The Oracle

STARTS & SITS 🧐

Quarterback

✅ Start ‘Em:

Kirk Cousins vs SEA: With an over/under of 51 points, this game is expected to be a shootout. The Seahawks have allowed 257.7 yards per game and eight passing TDs over their last three games, per the staff at USA Today, so Kirk should cook.

Baker Mayfield vs BAL: “Mayfield has now finished as a top seven QB in five of six games this season and is QB2 on the season. Now, he faces a Ravens team that is 31st in pass defense. Get this: five of the six QBs to face Baltimore so far this season have thrown for at least 269 yards. Mayfield should make it six of seven. I have him as QB6.” — NBCSports’ Matthew Berry

Geno Smith @ ATL: Smith easily leads the league in passing yards and attempts, but he’s tied for 19th in TDs. He also ranks 3rd in passes inside the five this season, and has somehow converted just two of 15 end-zone targets (4th-most) into scores, so he’s due for TD regression (per Yahoo’s Dalton Del Don).

❌ Sit ‘Em:

Patrick Mahomes @ SF: Mahomes has averaged just 14.2 fantasy points per game this season, with weekly finishes of QB12, 18, 16, 17 and 18. Meanwhile, the Niners have allowed just eight passing TDs in six games and 15+ fantasy points to a QB in just two of six games this season, per NFL.com’s Michael F. Florio.

Kyler Murray vs LAC: Murray has scored 16.8 fantasy points or less in four of six games this season and takes on the Chargers, who have allowed just two QBs to score more than 15 fantasy points this season, per CBSSports’ Jamey Eisenberg. He still offers rushing upside, but he’s becoming difficult to trust in single-QB leagues.

Russell Wilson vs NYJ: Both Steelers QBs are expected to see some playing time tonight, which means both Steelers QBs belong on your bench. Especially against a stout Jets D that’s allowed the 2nd-least passing yards per game.

POLL 📊

Running Back

✅ Start ‘Em:

Tony Pollard @ BUF: “With Tyjae Spears (hamstring) likely out, Pollard is set to take on a bell cow role in Week 6. Pollard played on a season-high 75% of the Titans snaps last week. He’s cleared 88 or more scrimmage yards and has 19 or more touches in four out of five games. Buffalo is burnable on the ground (4.88 YPC allowed | 8th-most).” — Fantasy Points’ Graham Barfield

Chuba Hubbard @ WAS: “The Commanders are allowing over 5.2 yards per carry to opposing backs this season, and Derrick Henry just ran all over that defense for 132 yards and two touchdowns in Week 6. So Hubbard is a strong start in Week 7.” — RotoBaller’s Joey Pollizze

Trey Sermon vs MIA: Jonathan Taylor is out again this week, meaning Sermon should lead the charge against a Dolphins D that has allowed the 3rd-most fantasy points per game to opposing backs.

❌ Sit ‘Em:

Rachaad White vs BAL: The Ravens are allowing a league-low 59 rushing yards per game, per the staff at USA Today, and with Bucky Irving and Sean Tucker earning touches of their own, there may not be much meat on the bone for White.

Zack Moss @ CLE: “Moss suffered a foot injury in Week 5 but returned for Week 6. However, he was out-carried by Chase Brown (35% vs. 53% of backfield attempts). Brown also topped him in target share (14% vs. 5%). Moss is no longer on the injury report, but his grasp on the lead back role has likely slipped away.” — DraftSharks’ Matt Schauf

Travis Etienne vs NE: Etienne missed time in Week 6 due to a hamstring injury and finished with -1 yard rushing. He has been too inefficient to trust — he has yet to reach 15 fantasy points in a game this season and has seven or fewer points in two of his last three games, per Michael F. Florio. Even if he plays, expect a healthy dose of Bigsby in this matchup.

Wide Receiver

✅ Start ‘Em:

Tank Dell @ GB: This Texans/Packers game could be a shootout, as Packers opponents have the league’s 9th-highest pass rate, per Dalton Del Don. Last week, Dell saw a season-high 28% target share with Nico Collins sidelined, so he should be busy today.

Ladd McConkey @ ARI: The Cardinals are giving up the 8th-most fantasy points to opposing WRs in the NFL and gave up 187 total yards and four TDs to the Packers' wideouts in Week 6, per USA Today’s Ayrton Ostly. The Chargers’ run-heavy approach won’t replicate that, but McConkey should still produce.

Zay Flowers @ TB: “Flowers has finished as a top-15 fantasy WR in back-to-back weeks and gets another strong matchup in Week 7 against the Buccaneers. Tampa Bay has conceded the 6th-most fantasy points per game to wideouts this season. With this game expected to be close, Flowers should see plenty of opportunities in the slot this week.” — Joey Pollizze

❌ Sit ‘Em:

Jameson Williams @ MIN: Williams has just nine targets over the last three games and is in a tough spot this weekend against a blitz-heavy Vikings defense. Minnesota ranks 6th in defensive DVOA against deep passes, per DraftSharks’ Shane Hallam, which is Jamo’s bread and butter.

Calvin Ridley @ BUF: The Bills are allowing the 8th-fewest fantasy points to WRs, per the staff at USA Today, which doesn’t bode well for Ridley, who put up a goose egg last week and will be without starting QB Will Levis, too.

Jaylen Waddle @ IND: Waddle hasn’t finished better than PPR WR38 in three games without Tua Tagovailoa. He’s a FLEX at best until Tua returns (next week?).

Tight End

✅ Start ‘Em:

Evan Engram vs NE: Last week, in his first game back from injury, Engram caught all 10 of his targets for 102 yards. This week, he's facing a Patriots defense that has allowed three TEs in the past four games to score at least 11.1 PPR points, per Jamey Eisenberg. He’s a must-start at a thin position.

David Njoku vs CIN: Njoku’s usage has steadily increased since returning from injury two weeks ago, and he’ll now be relied upon heavily given the recent trade of Amari Cooper. It also helps that the Bengals defense has allowed the 10th-most FPPG to TEs, per Michael F. Florio, making Njoku a solid play this week.

Kyle Pitts @ ATL: It’s risky recommending Pitts, but the Seahawks are allowing the 4th-most yards per game (57.3) and the 2nd-most schedule-adjusted fantasy points per game above average (+5.1) to opposing TEs, per Graham Barfield.

❌ Sit ‘Em:

Tucker Kraft vs HOU: The Texans have allowed just one TE to beat them for more than 7.2 points, including Dalton Kincaid and Cole Kmet, and only two teams have allowed fewer points per game to TEs, per SI’s Michael Fabiano. The position has averaged just 21.5 receiving yards against them, too.

Dalton Schultz @ GB: Even with Nico Collins on IR, Schultz finished with just 27 yards and 6.7 fantasy points in Week 6. He’s has been held to less than 35 yards and eight fantasy points in every game this season. Look elsewhere to stream.

Pat Freiermuth vs NYJ: “The veteran faces a Jets defense that’s allowed just 31.8 receiving yards and the 7th-fewest fantasy points to TEs. In fact, just one player at the position has beaten them for more than 8.2 points this season.” — Michael Fabiano

BEST BETS 💰

2024 record: 12-6 (2-1 last week).

🥇 Geno Smith OVER 265.5 passing yards (-115)

• “Geno leads the league in passing yardage, averaging 296.3 passing yards and 41.8 pass attempts per game. He’s topped this number in five straight games, and Seahawks-Falcons profiles as a shootout. The Seahawks’ offense has operated at the second-fastest pace in the league, the Falcons’ at the third-fastest. Atlanta’s pass defense ranks 21st in DVOA, and the Falcons’ anemic pass rush ranks 30th in pressure rate. Geno should go flying over this number.” — FantasyPros’ Pat Fitzmaurice

🥈 Kansas City Chiefs Moneyline (+108) vs. San Francisco 49ers

• “[Patrick Mahomes] has been money as an underdog in his career going 13-3-1 against the spread and he’s 10-3 straight up in his last 13 games as a dog. Plus, Andy Reid is 12-4 straight up out of a bye (including playoffs) week since he took over in Kansas City.” — SI’s Peter Dewey

🥉 Baltimore Ravens @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers OVER 48.5 total points

• “The total for this game opened at 50.5 and was bet down to 48.5, but I’m not sure I agree with that market move. These are two offenses capable of generating a ton of big plays, with both ranked in the top five in explosive play rate on first and second down.” — The Ringer’s Anthony Dabbundo

Disclaimer: Gambling should be enjoyed as a form of entertainment. Never gamble more than you can afford to lose.

QUICK SLANTS 👀

📖 Read Matthew Berry’s Love/Hate for Week 7 to find some more starts and sits that didn’t make it in this newsletter.

📖 Read Jamey Eisenberg of CBSSports’ Week 7 Sleepers for some lowkey names you can slide into your lineup if you’re shorthanded.

📖 Read Sal Vetri of Yahoo’s Keys to a Fantasy Football Victory in Week 7. Vetri highlights DeMario Douglas as someone you can pick up and play this week:

“He’s earned at least a 28% target share in three of his last four games, including in Week 6 with rookie QB Drake Maye … Jacksonville allows the most passing yards per game and the most touchdown passes this year. You can start Douglas in Week 7.”

🎙️ Listen to the latest episode of Scott Barrett’s School of Scott podcast, where he breaks down the Adams and Cooper trades, while also discussing Week 6 takeaways and a preview of Week 7.

📺 Watch The Top Aaron Rodgers to Davante Adams Connections (So Far😉) to get you fired up for this duo’s debut in green and white.

TWEET OF THE DAY

Good luck this week.

And remember: D’Andre Swift came back from the dead this year (right after we said to cut him, of course), so your fantasy team can do the same. The playoff push starts now!

- Marcus