Good morning.

No London game today! Which means we get to sleep in AND don’t have to watch the Jags with our morning coffee… what more can you ask for?!

The bad news, though, is that we’re somehow already at Week 8 — halfway through the fantasy football regular season😳. The contenders are starting to separate themselves from the pretenders, so it’s getting more and more important to stack wins. And we’re here to help you with those start/sit decisions you’ve been struggling with all week.

INJURY REPORT 🚑

Tua’s Back

Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa will return to the starting lineup today against Arizona. The splits for Tyreek and Waddle have been ridiculous with and without Tua:

And it’s been a similar story for De’Von Achane, who’s averaged 26.2 fantasy points per game with Tua, and just 6.9 without him, per Bleacher Report’s Timothy Rapp.

Meanwhile, here’s how injuries to other big names around the league are trending…

👍 Expected to play:

• Tyreek Hill

• Deebo Samuel

• George Kittle

• Zay Flowers

• Ladd McConkey

• Jakobi Meyers

• Bucky Irving

👎 Not expected to play:

• Andy Dalton

• Derek Carr

• Will Levis

• DK Metcalf

• Allen Lazard

• Quentin Johnston

• Jonathan Brooks (apparently, there’s a chance he might not play for the whole year!!😳)

🤷‍♂️ Gametime decision:

• Jayden Daniels

• Tee Higgins

• Travis Etienne

SPONSOR

STARTS & SITS 🧐

Quarterback

✅ Start ‘Em:

C.J. Stroud vs IND: He’s been struggling lately, but Stroud has dominated Indy in his brief career with at least 22.7 fantasy points in each of his three meetings with them. The Colts are No. 10 in most fantasy points allowed to opposing QBs, and four QBs have scored at least 21.3 fantasy points against this defense, per CBS Sports’ Jamey Eisenberg.

Caleb Williams @ WAS: The rookie is on fire, carrying QB6 and QB1 performances with him into his Week 7 bye. Now he’ll return home to D.C., where he gets set to take on a leaky Washington pass defense that ranks 25th in DVOA, per DraftSharks’ Jared Smola.

Jared Goff vs TEN: Goff has been absolutely cooking, completing an astounding 83.5% of his passes over the last four weeks, while averaging a league-leading 9.3 yards per pass attempt on the season, per FantasyPros’ Pat Fitzmaurice. While Detroit still loves to run the ball, Goff has entered must-start territory this year.

❌ Sit ‘Em:

Anthony Richardson @ HOU: His passing numbers have just been too horrific to make him a trustworthy fantasy asset. Just 54% of Richardson’s passes against the Dolphins were catchable last week, and an unbelievable 29.7% of his throws have been charted as off-target this season. That’s insanely bad. For reference, Bo Nix is 2nd-worst with 22.3% off-target throws among the 32 QBs with at least 100 dropbacks this season, per Fantasy Points’ Graham Barfield.

Dak Prescott @ SF: Prescott ranks 24th in EPA per dropback and is the QB16 in fantasy points per game. This week, his Cowboys have just a 21.25 implied team total and are up against a top-10 unit in EPA per passing play allowed, per NBC Sports’ Kyle Dvorchak. Look elsewhere for your QB start this week.

Kyler Murray @ MIA: Murray’s been inconsistent all season. And he’ll be hard to trust in Week 8 against the Miami Dolphins, who have allowed just 8.5 fantasy points per game to opposing QBs — the fewest in the NFL. Miami has yet to allow a QB to score 12+ points against them in 2024, per PFF’s Michelle Magdziuk.

Running Back

✅ Start ‘Em:

Rachaad White vs ATL: With Mike Evans and Chris Godwin out, and Bucky Irving being potentially limited by his foot injury, the Bucs offense should lean heavily on White — especially in the passing game. Tampa Bay games have averaged a ridiculous 55.6 total points this season, so it would be wise to bet on one of the last key players left in this offense.

Chase Brown vs PHI: “Brown completed the takeover of the Cincinnati backfield last week by out-carrying Zack Moss 15-6. He has seen 55% of the Bengals’ carries over the past four weeks and is averaging 15.3 touches per game during that stretch. Brown is also grading out well in the efficiency metrics. He ranks 3rd in yards after contact per carry and 5th in explosive run rate.” — Kyle Dvorchak

Kareem Hunt @ LV: Since stepping into the KC lineup three games ago, Hunt has seen 65% of the team’s carries and is averaging 23 touches for 95 yards and one TD per game. The Chiefs are 9.5 point favorites today in Vegas, which should result in a lot of rushing attempts for him.

❌ Sit ‘Em:

Nick Chubb vs BAL: It was nice to see him get into the end zone in his return to action last week, but the Browns’ RB still had just 22 yards on 11 carries. And this week he takes on a Baltimore D that hasn't allowed a RB to gain more than 46 yards on the ground, and only four RBs have scored rushing TDs against them this season, per Jamey Eisenberg.

Tank Bigsby vs GB: Travis Etienne could be returning this week. But even if he doesn’t, Bigsby relies heavily on positive game scripts, as he has just one reception on the season. A tough matchup against an explosive Packers offense means the Jags could be throwing the ball a lot, which bodes well for Etienne and/or D’Ernest Johnson, but not Bigsby.

Tyrone Tracy Jr. and Devin Singletary @ PIT: “The two Giants RBs split the workload against Philadelphia in Week 7 and managed just 53 yards combined. Things won't get easier this week on the road against the No. 3-ranked Steelers run defense. Pittsburgh is allowing the 7th-fewest fantasy running backs this season and should keep both in check this week.” — USA Today’s Ayrton Ostly

Wide Receiver

✅ Start ‘Em:

Romeo Doubs @ JAX: In two games since boycotting practice and getting suspended by the team, Doubs has posted 3-49-2 and 8-94-0 receiving lines and remains the Packers' leader in pass routes. And this week, his matchup against Jacksonville is the biggest passing mismatch of the day, according to DVOA. Plus, Jacksonville ranks dead last in adjusted fantasy points allowed to WRs, providing a 42% scoring boost to the position, per Jared Smola.

Tee Higgins vs PHI: Check reports closer to kickoff, as he was a last-minute addition to the injury report this week. But if he plays, Higgins is a must-start. He has a 27.4% target rate and the 12th-highest air yards share (38.3%) this season — both marks are well ahead of Ja’Marr Chase’s (19.8%, 28.3%). The Eagles’ pass-funnel defense has ceded the 6th-fewest fantasy points to RBs, but the 9th-most to WRs. Higgins also ranks top-10 in fantasy points per route run versus man, a coverage Philadelphia has used at the league’s 7th-highest rate, per Yahoo’s Dalton Del Don.

Keenan Allen @ WAS: “Washington is 5th in two high rate (53.6%). Against two high, Allen ranks 2nd in targets per route run (22%) while leading the team with a 30.8% first-read share. This looks like another smash matchup for Allen. Washington has allowed the 3rd-highest PPR points per target and the 11th-most receiving yards per game to slot receivers.” — FantasyPros’ Derek Brown

❌ Sit ‘Em:

Marvin Harrison Jr. @ MIA: You definitely aren’t benching him just for the sake of benching him — make sure you have a reliable option to put in his place. If you do, it might be wise to make that move. Harrison’s averaging just 6.1 targets per game and might run quite a few of his routes this Sunday into the coverage of Miami’s Jalen Ramsey, who’s still one of the better corners in the league (per Pat Fitzmaurice).

Michael Pittman Jr. and Josh Downs @ HOU: “In the four full games that Anthony Richardson has played, Pittman has 4/31, 3/21, 4/36, and 3/63 receiving in his game log. Downs earned three targets last week, and he caught his only target that was actually catchable, for three yards.” — Graham Barfield

DeAndre Hopkins @ LV: He only joined the Chiefs four days ago, and will reportedly have a “small menu of plays” in the game today. Leave him on your bench for now.

Tight End

✅ Start ‘Em:

David Njoku vs BAL: “Njoku saw a league-high 14 targets last week with Amari Cooper gone, and he gets a big upgrade at QB with Jameis Winston starting Sunday. Njoku has earned a 31% first-read target rate over the last two weeks, and gets an extreme pass-funnel defense; the Ravens have allowed an NFL-low 51.7 RB rushing yards per game, but the most passing yards this season. Baltimore opponents have the league’s 3rd-highest pass rate (66.3%).” — Dalton Del Don

Kyle Pitts @ TB: It’s finally happening! Pitts has topped 60 yards in each of his last three games and is now the TE7 on the year. He’s also scored double-digit fantasy points in three straight (and four of seven games total). And his best effort of the season came against the Bucs in Week 5, when he went for 88 yards and topped 15 fantasy points. Tampa Bay has allowed the 3rd-most yards and 10th-most fantasy PPG to TEs, per NFL.com’s Michael F. Florio. Start Pitts.

Evan Engram vs GB: He caught five passes for just 35 yards last week, but the Jaguars were run heavy in that win over the Patriots. In a game against the Packers that’ll likely find them playing from behind, Engram should get plenty of work through the air.

❌ Sit ‘Em:

Mark Andrews @ CLE: He’s finally heating up, but his usage has still left plenty to be desired:

And this week he takes on Cleveland, who have allowed the 7th-fewest receiving yards and the 5th-fewest fantasy points per game to opposing TEs, per Derek Brown. Although his prospects for the rest of the year are improving, you can fade him this week.

Tyler Conklin @ NE: He found the end zone last week, but let’s not forget he mustered up just seven yards on four receptions. With Davante Adams in town and Garrett Wilson still dominated targets as well, you can look elsewhere for a streamer at TE.

Pat Freiermuth vs NYG: The Giants have allowed the 8th-fewest yards and zero TDs to TEs this season while giving up the 7th-fewest fantasy PPG to the position, per Michael F. Florio. Russell Wilson HATES throwing over the middle of the field, so always fade his TEs:

POLL 📊

BEST BETS 💰

2024 record: 14-7 (2-1 last week).

🥇 J.K. Dobbins OVER 75.5 rushing yards (-109)

• “The Saints have given up 146.7 rushing yards per game, the 3rd most in the NFL, and now face a Chargers team that has fully bought into the ground game under Jim Harbaugh. Dobbins has covered the 75.5 rushing yard line in three of six games this season and is averaging 79.6 rushing yards per game. Given the Saints' weakness against the run, this game is ripe for a big J.K. Dobbins game.” — Action Network’s Sam Farley 

🥈 Brian Thomas Jr. OVER 58.5 receiving yards (-117)

• BTJ has 80+ receiving yards in three of his last four games, and should do the same in a shootout with Green Bay.

🥉 Rachaad White OVER 3.5 receptions (+108)

• White has the 7th-highest RB target share this season. He's gone over 3.5 catches in half his games this season and in six of his last ten games played, per FantasyPros’ Andrew Erickson. Factor in the injuries to Godwin and Evans, and this feels like a lock.

Disclaimer: Gambling should be enjoyed as a form of entertainment. Never gamble more than you can afford to lose.

QUICK SLANTS 👀

📖 Read Fantasy Football Connections: A Call With Uncle Roger from FootballGuys’ Dave Kluge. With a personal story of his wife’s uncle, Kluge shows how fantasy football can build new connections and galvanize old ones.

📖 Read Jake Ciely of The Athletic’s Week 8 Matchup Rankings based on Strength of Schedule. Be sure to play all your Packers this week…👀

📖 Read Ben Standig of The Athletic’s article on Jayden Daniels using VR to help simulate live reps. The rookie apparently sets the speed of his VR simulation to the highest possible setting so that the game slows down in person. It’s fascinating.

🎙️ Listen to the Fantasy Football Happy Hour with Matthew Berry’s Week 8 Love/Hate podcast. Berry, Jay Croucher, and Connor Rogers talk Joe Mixon, Drake London, Jordan Love, and others.

📺 Watch this walk-off PUNT in the CFL. Thought your fantasy league’s scoring system was whack?

TWEET OF THE DAY

Al Michaels: A true man’s man.

Before we go, send your thoughts and prayers to this Indiana Hoosiers fan who blew out his knee warming up for Pat McAfee’s $100K field goal challenge on College GameDay.😅

They had to select another fan to fill in, who went on to miss the kick. That’s rough.

Hope you have better luck than him today.

- Marcus