Good morning.

Halloween was truly wild around the NFL. We had Malachi Corley dropping the ball at the one yard line (tough beat for this bettor), Garrett Wilson recreating the Jumpman logo with what might be the catch of the year, and Bill Belichick just straight up living his best life:

But now — as we wake up from our candy coma and ask ourselves, “did the Jets really win Thursday night?!” — we must refocus. It’s time to lock in and get that W.

The playoff push starts now…

INJURY REPORT 🚑

Hockenson to Make Season Debut

Vikings TE T.J. Hockenson is expected to play today for the first time since tearing his ACL and MCL in Week 16 of last year. He will reportedly NOT be on a snap count and has a soft matchup against Indianapolis. Don’t be afraid to plug him into your lineup right away.

Meanwhile, here’s how some other big names around the NFL are trending…

👍 Expected to play:

• Jordan Love

• Drake Maye

• Josh Jacobs

• Travis Etienne

• Tony Pollard

• Brian Robinson Jr.

• Bucky Irving

• Tank Bigsby

• Zamir White

• Puka Nacua

• Brian Thomas Jr.

• Amari Cooper

• Xavier Legette

👎 Not expected to play:

• Will Levis

• Brian Robinson Jr.

• Zack Moss

• Jonathon Brooks

• Amari Cooper

• Tee Higgins

• Adam Thielen

• JuJu Smith-Schuster

SPONSOR

STARTS & SITS 🧐

Quarterback

✅ Start ‘Em:

Bo Nix @ BAL: Over the last four weeks, “Nix has completed 67% of his throws for 217.5 yards per game (7.1 yards per attempt), 7 TDs, and just 1 INT. Most importantly, Nix is running often. He’s adding 32 yards per game and has scored four times on the ground. He’s on the board against a Ravens secondary that’s allowing a league-high 311.6 passing yards per contest.” — Fantasy Points’ Graham Barfield.

Kirk Cousins vs DAL: Dallas has given up the 6th-most fantasy points to QBs this season and have allowed six passing TDs in the past three weeks, per PFF’s Nathan Jahnke. Their team coverage grade is also the 5th-lowest among defenses and starting CBs DaRon Bland and Trevon Diggs are both battling injuries — Bland is officially out, while Diggs is a game-time decision.

Patrick Mahomes vs TB: “Tampa Bay ranks 26th in dropback EPA per play allowed and has faced the 6th-highest pass rate over expected this year. Vegas has the Chiefs with a 27 implied team total, the 4th-highest of the week. It’s now or never for Mahomes.” — NBC Sports’ Kyle Dvorchak.

❌ Sit ‘Em:

Jameis Winston vs LAC: The Chargers have kept QBs in check with the 8th-lowest yards per attempt, the 13th-lowest completion percentage over expectation, and the 3rd-lowest success rate per dropback allowed, per FantasyPros’ Derek Brown.

Tua Tagovailoa @ BUF: In eight career starts against the Bills, Tagovailoa has failed to score more than 16 points seven times and has been held to single digits in each of their last two meetings, per SI’s Michael Fabiano.

Geno Smith vs LAR: Smith struggled in his first game of the season without DK Metcalf, failing to throw a TD for the first time all year. With Metcalf out again, expect those struggles to continue.

Running Back

✅ Start ‘Em:

Chase Brown vs LV: Zack Moss is doubtful, but even with Moss healthy, Brown has scored at least 11.4 PPR points in four of his past five games. Meanwhile, the Raiders are No. 10 in most fantasy points allowed to opposing RBs, and a back has scored at least 13.3 PPR points against Las Vegas in every game this season, per CBS Sports’ Jamey Eisenberg.

Tyrone Tracy Jr. vs WAS: Tracy put up 145 yards and one TD against a stout Steelers run D last week, while Devin Singletary saw just two carries for 11 yards. Tracy’s cleared concussion protocol and will get the start against the Commanders, who are allowing 117 rushing yards per game (6th-most), per Graham Barfield.

Chuba Hubbard vs NO: Over the last four weeks, the Saints’ defense has allowed seven TDs and the 3rd-most fantasy points per game to RBs. In all, six runners have beaten them for 16+ points, including three with 26+, per Michael Fabiano.

❌ Sit ‘Em:

Nick Chubb vs LAC: Chubb is still working himself back into game shape. In two games, he’s averaging just 2.6 yards after contact per attempt, while his career average is 3.9. Plus, the Browns are slight underdogs this week and face a Chargers defense that has given up the 2nd-fewest fantasy points to opposing backs, per Kyle Dvorchak.

Javonte Williams @ BAL: Williams has scored in just one game all season and managed just 2.6 yards per carry against fantasy’s worst rush defense last week. Meanwhile, the Ravens are ceding NFL lows in yards per carry (3.3) and rush attempts per game (21.3), per Yahoo’s Dalton Del Don.

Tank Bigsby @ PHI: Travis Etienne could return this week. Plus, the Eagles have allowed the 6th-fewest fantasy points to opposing RBs, and no back has gained more than 49 yards on the ground in the past four games against them, per Jamey Eisenberg.

Wide Receiver

✅ Start ‘Em:

Ladd McConkey @ CLE: The rookie ranks 16th in fantasy points per route run this season, and the Chargers’ dropback rate over expectation has gone from -5% before the bye up to +4% after, per Dalton Del Don. His usage against man coverage also bodes well for this matchup:

Jakobi Meyers @ CIN: The Bengals have played single-high looks over 50% of the time in six of their eight games, or 57.6% of the time overall (9th-most). Meyers’ targets per route run more than doubles against single-high this year (from 13% to 29%), while his fantasy points per route run sees a +34.4% boost. Cincy has also allowed the 3rd-highest target share to outside receivers (46.3%), where Meyers has run 58.9% of his routes without Davante Adams, per Fantasy Points’ Ryan Heath.

Xavier Legette vs NO: Diontae Johnson was traded away to Baltimore, and Adam Thielen is unlikely to play again due to his hamstring injury, leaving Legette as the team’s unquestioned WR1. Meanwhile, the Saints have surrendered 29.3 fantasy points per game to WRs, the 7th-most in the NFL, per RotoBaller’s Mike Fanelli.

❌ Sit ‘Em:

Keenan Allen @ ARI: “Allen has largely been unable to get things clicking with rookie QB Caleb Williams so far this season. In full PPR leagues, he's WR77 and averaging under 10 points per game, even after his 21-point outbreak against the Jaguars in Week 6.” — USA Today’s Jack McKessy

Tyler Lockett vs LAR: Even with DK Metcalf out last week, Lockett caught just one pass on three targets for nine yards against the Bills. He’s looked pretty cooked this year, as his average depth of target is the lowest it's been since 2020, per Jack McKessy.

DeAndre Hopkins vs TB: Hopkins only ran a route on 33% of Patrick Mahomes’ dropbacks in Week 8. Wait until he finds his role in the offense before plugging him into your lineup.

Tight End

✅ Start ‘Em:

Evan Engram @ PHI: The Eagles are a slot funnel, allowing the 10th-most schedule-adjusted fantasy points per game to the position (+1.4). Engram ran 57.0% of his routes from the slot in games without Christian Kirk last season, averaging an ridiculous 18.7 fantasy points per game (+36% more than last year’s TE1) and leading the position with a 25.5% target share over that span, per Ryan Heath.

Kyle Pitts vs DAL: Pitts has finally entered must-start territory. He’s become a consistent part of Atlanta's offense with 65+ yards in four straight games, while reaching double digit points in five of his eight games this season.

• Similarly, Cade Otton has also earned must-start status after collecting 10 targets in back-to-back games and posting TE5 and TE1 finishes.

Mike Gesicki vs LV: If you’re in need of a bye week fill-in, stream Gesicki:

❌ Sit ‘Em:

Tucker Kraft vs DET: It feels weird benching the TE4 overall, but Kraft hasn't exceeded three receptions in a game since Week 5. On top of that, the Lions have allowed the 2nd-fewest fantasy points per game to opposing TEs, per USA Today’s Tom Viera.

Hunter Henry @ TEN: The Titans have allowed the 3rd-fewest yards to TEs while yielding just two TDs and the 5th-fewest fantasy points per game to the position, per NFL.com’s Michael F. Florio.

Zach Ertz @ NYG: Ertz has been solid this year, but the Giants have allowed the 3rd-fewest fantasy points per game and the 6th-fewest receiving yards per game to TEs, per Derek Brown.

POLL 📊

BEST BETS 💰

2024 record: 16-8 (2-1 last week)

🥇 Josh Downs OVER 63.5 receiving yards (-113)

• The Vikings play zone coverage at the 3rd-highest rate in the NFL, and Downs has a 31.6% target share vs. zone coverage this season. The only full-time WRs who have a higher target share against zone coverage this year are Puka Nacua, Cooper Kupp, and Rashee Rice, per FantraxHQ’s Mick Ciallela. It also helps that Joe Flacco’s starting at QB:

🥈 De’Von Achane OVER 36.5 receiving yards (-113)

• Achane has 6+ catches for 50+ receiving yards in all three games with Tua Tagovailoa. Also, the Bills have allowed 6.4 receptions and 54.3 yards per game to RBs this season, both of which lead the NFL, per Jacob Wayne. That includes Achane’s 7 catches for 69 yards against this defense in Week 2.

🥉 LA Rams (-1.5) over Seattle (-110)

• Divisional games are tough, but the Rams should ride Kyren Williams to a W. “Williams, against Mike Macdonald's defense in Baltimore last year, ran for 114 yards on 25 carries. Matthew Stafford had a monster game as well, with 294 yards and three TD passes. With Cooper Kupp off the block and Puka Nacua back, I think we could see a shootout with the Rams coming out on top of a fun divisional battle.” — CBS Sports’ Will Brinson

Disclaimer: Gambling should be enjoyed as a form of entertainment. Never gamble more than you can afford to lose.

QUICK SLANTS 👀

📖 Read Ian Hartitz of FantasyLife’s 32 Facts for 32 Teams. Hartitz points out that winter is coming, which should be music to the ears of Derrick Henry managers:

📖 Read Matt Harmon of Yahoo’s Binge, Stream, Skip, where he categorizes each Week 9 matchup based on how the game environment might impact fantasy football.

📖 Read The Athletic’s NFL Trade Deadline Roundup for the latest updates and insight on which players might be moved ahead of Tuesday’s deadline.

🎙️ Listen to The Ringer Fantasy Football Show’s Midseason Awards, where they hand out honors such as fantasy MVP (so far), biggest bust, Bonus Jonas, and more. The guys also sit down with Second Gentleman Doug Emhoff to discuss pre-internet fantasy football and to litigate some fantasy courts (don’t worry, they don’t talk politics).

📺 Watch Hall of Fame QB Kurt Warner’s film breakdown of Bo Nix. Warner does a great job of breaking down the tape to show you how QBs around the league are either succeeding or struggling, and in his latest episode with Nix, he shows how the rookie is making impressive strides so far this season.

TWEET OF THE DAY

Good luck this week.

And remember: if Bill Belichick can date a 23-year-old, then your 2-6 fantasy team can still make the playoffs. BILLieve in yourself.

- Marcus