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š Cedric Tillman & Week 9 Waivers
Players to add ahead of Week 9, along with the latest news around the NFL and deeeeeep dives to stash.
Good morning.
We were treated to a perfect NFL Sunday. The witching hour was absolutely electric, Jameis Winston was quoting Eminem, and the Jets lost to the Patriots ā what more can you ask for?!
Hopefully your fantasy league had just as much excitement. But win or lose, itās time to move on to Week 9, so letās get to itā¦
Today's newsletter highlights:
šØ Latest trade rumours
š Tillmanās for real
š“ Jameis is eating Ws
š¤æ Deeeeeep dives
We find the best fantasy football articles, advice and memes and pack them into a FREE, 3-minute morning read - delivered Sun-Tues-Thurs.
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AROUND THE LEAGUE šØ
Diontae on the Block
Diontae Johnson // USA Today
ESPN's Adam Schefter said on The Pat McAfee Show yesterday that he expects Panthers WR Diontae Johnson to get traded ahead of next Tuesday's deadline. Regardless of where he ends up, it should be a QB upgrade for Johnson, who showed in some limited action with Andy Dalton that he can be a solid WR2 in fantasy football.
Other names being floating around ahead of the deadline include Cooper Kupp, Mike Williams, and possibly even Matthew Stafford.š
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WAIVER WIRE š§
Running Back
Kimani Vidal // Bolt Beat
Itās a rough week for RBs, with most of the notable names just being intriguing handcuffs. But there are a few that stand outā¦
Chargers RB Kimani Vidal had a season-high 24% carry share on Sunday. Heās averaging 3.1 yards after contact per attempt compared to 2.9 for J.K. Dobbins. Dobbinsā number is also buoyed by his first two games, the only weeks in which he averaged more than three yards after contact, per NBC Sportsā Kyle Dvorchak. Given Dobbinsā injury history, it wouldnāt be a surprise to see Vidal get at least a couple spot starts throughout the rest of the season.
J.K. Dobbins is averaging only 3.16 yards per carry on 85 rush attempts in his last five games.
This is despite a couple of smash spots vs the Cardinals and Saints.
It's time to see more Kimani Vidal.
ā Frank Ammirante (@FAmmiranteTFJ)
6:59 PM ā¢ Oct 28, 2024
49ers RB Isaac Guerendo is on a bye in Week 9, and Christian McCaffrey is expected to return in Week 10. However, backup RB Jordan Mason has been battling injuries the last few weeks, and in his absence Sunday night, Guerendo racked up over 100 total yards and a TD en route to an RB11 finish. The rookie is averaging over six yards per carry, and given the uncertain health of both CMC and Mason, heās worth a stash.
Jets RB Braelon Allenās usage ticked back up for the first time since New Yorkās coaching change, as the rookie earned 12 carries (compared to 16 for Breece Hall). Heās a top-tier handcuff to have with some moderate FLEX-appeal given his short yardage TD-upside.
Ravens RB Keaton Mitchell is set to return within the next week or two and could be available if your league doesnāt have IR slots. While heāll split with Justice Hill behind Derrick Henry, donāt forget that he averaged 8.4 yards per carry last year before his injury.
As always, keep an eye out for other handcuff options that could offer league-winning upside:
Falcons RB Tyler Allgeier
Steelers RB Jaylen Warren
Broncos RB Jaleel McLaughlin
Rams RB Blake Corum
Bills RB Ray Davis
Ravens RB Justice Hill
Vikings RB Ty Chandler
Cardinals RB Trey Benson
Dolphins RB Jaylen Wright
Bears RB Roschon Johnson
Wide Receiver
Ced Tillman // SI
Browns WR Cedric Tillman proved last week wasnāt a fluke, catching seven passes for 99 yards and two long TDs against the Ravens. Tillman was mostly a cardio machine last year, routinely playing >70% of snaps, but only averaging 16 yards per game, and had yet to play more than 26 snaps in any game this year before the Amari Cooper trade. But he looks to have taken full advantage of his new opportunity, totalling 180 yards on an impressive 21 targets in his last two games.
.@Ctillman04's rank among all NFL WRs the past two weeks:
Receiving TDs (2): Tied for 1st
Receptions: (15) Tied for 2nd
Receiving yards (180): 5th
First downs (8): Tied for 5thā Dan Murphy (@DMurph_BrownsPR)
6:30 PM ā¢ Oct 28, 2024
Colts WR Josh Downs makes this list seemingly every week with the same caveat ā heās a risky play with Anthony Richardson being as bad as he is as a passer. His situation isnāt ideal, but thereās no doubting the WRās talent:
Second Year Wide Receivers to post 10+ PPG with a 30%+ Target Rate and 2.00+ Yards per Route Run
[ Amon-Ra St Brown ]
[ Brandon Marshall ]
[ JOSH DOWNS ]the Josh Downs BREAKOUT is REAL
ā DynastyIM (@dynasty_im)
2:03 AM ā¢ Oct 28, 2024
Bills WR Keon Coleman: āA week after his breakout showing against the Titans, Coleman had another strong game in Week 8, catching a career-high five passes for 70 yards and a TD. He has 14 targets since the Bills acquired Amari Cooper, taking advantage of the increased defensive attention on Cooper to carve out a role on the other side.ā ā RotoBallerās Justin Carter
Panthers WR Xavier Legette tied Miles Sanders for a team-high in targets at seven a piece. He also led the way in air yards (114) and scored his 4th TD since Week 4. Legette could also see a major uptick in targets if Diontae Johnson gets dealt at next weekās deadline, so grab him while heās cheap.
Bucs WR Sterling Shepard took over the Chris Godwin role as Tampaās primary slot receiver (60% of snaps in that spot, per FantasyProsā Pat Fitzmaurice). It didnāt amount to much, but he could be headed for a season-best stat line this week against Kansas City. The Chiefs have been a tough pass defense this season, but they have allowed the 4th-most fantasy points per game to slot receivers, per Fantasy Points Data.
Bucs WR Jalen McMillan also disappointed in his first game with a major role in the offense, but heās still an ascending talent with a chance to step up as the season goes on. He was likely claimed last week, but keep an eye out to see if he gets dropped, then scoop him up for cheap.
QB & TE
Browns QB Jameis Winston went off in his first start for Cleveland, throwing for 334 yards and three TDs. In typical Jameis fashion, though, he did have at least three passes that should have been picked off.
But nevertheless, Browns QBs have thrown for 300+ yards in six of the last seven games started by anyone other than Deshaun Watson (six for Flacco and now one for Winston). And the one game that wasnāt a 300+ yard performance was when Jeff Driskel started a meaningless Week 18 game for them last season. Itās almost like Watson was the problem all alongā¦?š¤
Rams QB Matthew Stafford came back to life with Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua back in the lineup. The vet completed 25 of his 34 passes against the Vikings for 279 yards, four touchdowns and one INT.
Matthew Stafford in 7 games WITHOUT all 3 of Puka, Kupp, & Kyren last year:
14.1 PPG (QB28 in PPG).
Matthew Stafford in 8 games WITH all 3 of Puka, Kupp, & Kyren last year:
19.3 PPG (QB6 in PPG).
ā David J. Gautieri (@GuruFantasyWrld)
1:57 PM ā¢ Oct 24, 2024
Broncos QB Bo Nix is 4th in expected fantasy points per game (20.5) among QBs this season ā higher than Lamar Jackson (20.4), Jayden Daniels (19.1), and Josh Allen (18.1), per David J. Gautieri. He had the best day of his career Sunday, throwing for 284 yards and three TDs while scoring his 4th rushing TD of the year, too. Heāll look to stay hot this week against a Ravens secondary that just got torched by Jameis Winston.
Chargers QB Justin Herbert has topped 200+ passing yards and 30+ attempts in three straight games since Los Angelesā bye. Theyāve definitely skewed more pass-heavy than usual lately, which could make Herbert an intriguing bye week fill-in.
Commanders TE Zach Ertz āset season highs across the board in Sundayās improbable win over Chicago, catching seven balls for 77 yards on 11 chances. Heās been a reliable chain-mover for Jayden Daniels, even if he lacks after-the-catch juice at this stage of his career.ā ā Yahooās Andy Behrens
Bengals TE Mike Gesicki came alive in Tee Higginsā absence with seven receptions for 77 yards. He hasnāt been able to produce with Higgins in the lineup, so if the WR is forced to miss more time, Gesicki could be a desperation spot start.
And, obviously, if Bucs TE Cade Otton is somehow still available, sell the farm.
D/ST
New Orleans Saints // USA Today
The New Orleans Saints take on the Carolina Panthers this week. Defenses are averaging more than 10 fantasy points per game in the last four weeks against the Panthers, per NFL.comās Dan Parr. New Orleans scored a season-high 14 fantasy points in its matchup against Carolina back in Week 1, so the Saints are definitely streamable this week.
The Washington Commanders have been one of the better fantasy defenses over the past four weeks, averaging 9.2 fantasy points per game during that span. And this week they get the Giants, who have scored just 28 points in their last three games combined.
The Houston Texans take on the Jets, who have given up the 5th-most points to fantasy defenses over the past four weeks. Theyāre also bottom-10 in total offense, bottom-3 in rushing, and scoring less than 19 points per game, while Aaron Rodgers has thrown seven INTs (tied for the 6th-most in the league) and has been sacked 18 times, per Roto Street Journalās Sean Keegs.
POLL š
Which QB has been the biggest disappointment in fantasy football so far? |
DEEP DIVES š¤æ
The Moore the Merrier
Elijah Moore // SI
Stash these players on your bench before they blow up. Last week, the perfect pickup was Jameis Winston.
Apologies for the Browns-heavy newsletter, but WR Elijah Moore (1.3%) drew a team-high 12 targets in Sundayās win over the Ravens, catching eight for 85 yards. Heās totalled 126 receiving yards over the past two weeks in an offense that has new life with Jameis Winston at the helm.
Jags WR Parker Washington (0.1%) is the next man up after all three starting WRs went down in Jacksonville. Brian Thomas Jr. and Gabe Davis both left Sundayās game with injuries, while Christian Kirk is lost for the season with a fractured collarbone. Washington flashed last year, putting up 18 fantasy points in Week 13, and has the opportunity to do the same going forward.
Texans WR Xavier Hutchinson (0.3%) played the 2nd-most snaps of any Texans WR on Sunday, behind only Tank Dell. Stefon Diggs suffered a non-contact knee injury during the game and Nico Collins remains sidelined, too, so Houston desperately needs someone to step up. Hutchinsonās size (6ā3ā 210 lbs) makes him an ideal target on the outside while Dell mans the slot.
Texans WRs John Metchie (0.1%) and Robert Woods (0.1%) are likely to step up in Diggsā absence as well. While theyāre more in the mold of a possession receiver, they could see valuable targets out of necessity.
QUICK SLANTS š
š Read Ryan Heath of Fantasy Pointsā Five Stats to Know from Week 8. One eye-opener was just how bad WRs have been lately:
Do your WRs feel terrible? It's not just you.
Average weekly number of 25+ point PPR performances by WRs:
2021 ā 5.1
2022 ā 4.8
2023 ā 5.5
Weeks 1-5 ā 4.8Weeks 6-8 ā 1.3 (!!!) x.com/i/web/status/1ā¦
ā Ryan Heath (@RyanJ_Heath)
2:16 AM ā¢ Oct 28, 2024
š Read Peter Overzet of FantasyLifeās Week 8 Fantasy Football Takeaways, where he highlights the key stats from last weekās games, like just how good TEs were on National Tight End Day:
š Read Ayrton Ostly of USA Todayās Drop Candidates, including Vikings WR Jordan Addison, who has had eight total catches for 124 yards and zero TDs over the last three games and has to compete for targets with T.J. Hockenson going forward as well.
šļø Listen to Beyond the Box Score from CBS Sportsā Fantasy Football Today podcast. The guys discuss major topics like the Browns offense with Jameis, selling high on Cade Otton, Jaylen Waddleās outlook, and whatās wrong with C.J. Stroud.
šŗ If you havenāt already, watch Bears DB Tyrique Stevenson taunt Commanders fans right before giving up the game-winning Hail Maryš
OMG. While the Hail Mary play was going on Chicago Bears DB Tyrique Stevenson was taunting the crowd and celebrating a victory. He then proceeded to have the ball bounce off his hand and into Noah Brownās hands for the game winning TD. Talk about karma š¤Æ
ā Robert Griffin III (@RGIII)
12:50 AM ā¢ Oct 28, 2024
TWEET OF THE DAY
āWe will be a great league that has two teams from New York City.ā
In which borough will they play sir?
āNone. They will play in New Jersey. And approximately 45% of their games will be on national television.ā
Wow, these two teams must win very often sir.
āAlmost never.ā
ā Jarrett Bailey (@JBaileyNFL)
8:10 PM ā¢ Oct 26, 2024
Before we go, send your well wishes to Dwyane Wade for his brutal statue reveal in Miami:
We promise you are not ready for the Dwyane Wade statue reveal
ā Barstool Sports (@barstoolsports)
10:09 PM ā¢ Oct 27, 2024
I haven't seen anyone look so disappointed since my parents came over last week.
Good luck on the waiver wire. See you Thursday.
- Marcus
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