Austin Ekeler (high ankle sprain) is sitting again, which means:

Ekeler is expected to return after the Chargers Week 5 bye. But until then:

We’re not recommending starting J*** K**** (ever) again. Don’t do it.

Good news to start your day: Detroit Lions’ center Frank Ragnow is the Week 4 NFLPA Community MVP after hosting grieving families in Detroit for a day of fishing, games, a boat tour and gifts in memory of their loved ones. Love to see it!!

RANKINGS

Jahmyr Gibbs drops to RB17, while David Montgomery rises to RB20. Gibbs still has the higher ceiling — which is why he remains above Montgomery in our rankings — but Montgomery’s TD upside and current role makes him more valuable short term.

Michael Pittman Jr. moves to WR19. He’s the only WR with 8+ catches in every game this season and is WR6 in targets. He has played the second-most WR snaps (210), trailing only DeVonta Smith, and his best game was in Week 1 - with rookie QB Anthony Richardson (11 targets for 97 yards & TD) - who returns this week. Shane Steichen is a GOAT.

Romeo Doubs rises to WR50 after back-to-back 12 target games (despite Christian Watson’s return). Doubs looks to be Jordan Love’s go-to guy, earning a 25% target share this season (38% on Thursday night), per Dwain McFarland of Fantasy Life. Doubs is a safe WR3 with WR2 upside if this usage continues.

David Njoku falls to TE11 after a slow start (92 yards and 0 TDs thru 3 weeks) that might not get better. Nojku’s the third option on a middling Browns offense and mostly TD dependent. Which is a shame, because Njoku is the only player in the NFL that averages 4.5+ yards of separation with a catch percentage higher than 90% (@tha_buffalo).

Njoku also suffered burns on his face and hands in a fire pit incident at his home yesterday… Get well soon, David!

Our Top 169 Rest of Season Rankings are now LIVE

👇️ 

STORY

Start / Sit for Week 4

Start Tee Higgins v TEN. After allowing the 2nd most receiving yards to WRs in 2022, Tennessee is allowing the 4th most this season. “This Titans defense is one of the clearest pass-funnel units in the NFL. Specifically, teams have attacked aggressively down the field. The Titans have the highest opponent average depth of target in the NFL. This could be a Tee Higgins eruption spot”, per Jacob Gibbs at Sportsline.

Sit Jahan Dotson v PHI. “Commanders QB Sam Howell only seems to be seeking out Dotson on his shorter routes. Dotson’s average depth of target last year was 13.5 yards. So far this year it’s almost half (7.4 yards). I don’t think Dotson breaks out of his slump this week vs. a tough Eagles pass defense. Keep him on your bench and reinsert him next week (v CHI)”, per @Fitz_FF of FantasyPros.

Sit Zay Flowers v CLE. His yardage totals have dropped in each outing (78, 62, 48) and he’s facing a Cleveland defense giving up the fewest fantasy points to WRs on the season, per Justin Boone at theScore. At this point, it’s wise to fade most players facing the Browns, whose 21 first downs allowed are the fewest in the league (2nd is Buffalo with 41), per the Browns’ Dan Murphy.

Start Justin Fields v DEN (only if you need upside). If he blows this, it’s over. Fields had 7 designed rushing attempts last week, up from 2.5 per game over the first two weeks of the season. Over his final 10 games last season, Fields averaged 7.4 designed rushing attempts per game (24.9 FPG), per Scott Barrett’s Everything Report.

Denver has the fifth-highest rate of man coverage this season and Fields has a 7.1% big-time throw percentage against man (compared to a 3.1% rate against zone) over the past two seasons. He also has a higher rate of scrambling against man, per Nathan Jahnke of PFF. You should sit Fields if a stable 15 points (Stroud, Purdy, Wilson) is enough this week, but if you’re an underdog he has boom potential.

Sit Dak Prescott v NE. “His offensive line is banged up, which is an issue, and Prescott isn't worth trusting in one-QB leagues against the Patriots, who have yet to allow a QB to throw for 250 yards this season. Jalen Hurts (14.5 fantasy points) and Tua Tagovailoa (14.3 points) were both held in check, and Prescott will probably struggle again”, per Jamey Eisenberg at CBSSports. Cowboys fans, surprised?

Start Kyren Williams. “No other back has a higher snap share than Williams’ 86%. With his ascending role in the passing game and high-leverage snaps inside the 5-yard line, Williams is a serious threat to finish as a top-12 RB. He can thrive in any game script”, per Dwain McFarland of Fantasy Life.

Flex: Javonte Williams in a part-time role. Williams has been a very inefficient rusher this season (RB45 in RYOE/game and RB44 in success rate) and his playing time is trending in the wrong direction.

“Given that Williams is coming off a multi-ligament knee tear, I wouldn't read into this all that much long-term. The Broncos may feel that they ramped him up too quickly, but he's avoided any setbacks and his late-season outlook remains strong. But in this Bears game, I expect that we'll again see him in a part-time role, making Williams difficult to trust, despite a soft matchup”, per Pat Kerrane’s Week 4 Walkthrough.

Send us an email with your start/sit questions and we’ll get back to you ASAP.

HOSPITAL VISIT

Nick Chubb Surgery Update

In a surprise, Derek Carr (right shoulder) is expected to play against the Bucs, sources told @RapSheet. Dealing with an AC sprain, Carr did practice on a limited basis on Friday. The coaches will need to know he can protect himself. But there is a chance.

Saquon Barkley is doubtful for Monday night vs. the Seahawks. Experts say he has a 66% chance of sitting. Depending on your roster, he may be worth keeping in your lineup - can grab Breida/Slayton/Robinson in a pinch start. I’m sitting Saquon where I’m favored & have capable fill-ins (Zach Moss, James Conner, Javonte Williams).

Deshaun Watson (shoulder contusion) is expected to play vs #Ravens. Because he hasn’t thrown all week, Stefanski/trainers will watch Watson throw in warmups before giving the green light (@ByKimberleyA).

Jimmy Garoppolo is out Sunday, meaning the Raiders now will have to choose between rookie QB Aidan O'Connell, a fourth-round draft pick from Purdue who has yet to be active for an NFL game or 15-year veteran QB Brian Hoyer (@AdamSchefter). 

O'Connell was one of best QBs in NFL this preseason (No.2 PFF ranking of 70 QBs) and is expected to start.

Brian Hoyer has been paid almost $31 mill to hang out and watch football from really, really good seats for 13 years.

Anthony Richardson cleared concussion protocol and will start Sunday's game.

Kyler Murray is not expected to come off the PUP list when eligible Monday and still is considered weeks away from playing, league sources told ESPN (@AdamSchefter).

Pray for CJ Stroud. Coming into Week 3, the Steelers had the most sacks in the NFL. Meanwhile, the Texans OL is in shambles, with only one true starter healthy:

LT: Austin Deculus (LT3 on initial depth chart)
LG: Kendrick Green (LG3)
C: Jarrett Patterson (C3)
RG: Shaq Mason (RG1)
RT: George Fant (RT2)

Justice Hill (questionable, toe) expected to play vs Browns. Gus Edwards plays too. Sit them all.

Miles Sanders is likely to sit (75% chance) and expect workload limitations if active. Chubba Hubbard is a streamer if Sanders out.

Brandon Aiyuk, who missed last week’s game due to a shoulder injury, is back.

Deebo Samuel (ribs + knee) has a 60% chance of sitting. We think he’ll play, but the combo of ribs & a knee sprain could mean a Week 5 return.

Pat McAfee confirmed he threw up between segments, as others across the league had been speculating. McAfee completed the show despite what he suspects as “food poisoning”.

MARKETS

Cooking Up A Storm

🏦 The Stash List: Marvin Mims, Rashee Rice, Elijah Mitchell, Rico Dowdle, Calvin Austin, Devin Singletary, Alec Pierce, Wan’Dale Robinson, Keontay Ingram.

⬆️ D’Andre Swift is a much better runner than Kenneth Gainwell. Compared to Gainwell, Swift is averaging:

• more yards before contact (3.3 to 1.5)

• after contact (3.3 to 1.9)

• more missed tackles per carry (0.24 vs. 0.14)

• 6.1 YPC on zone carries, which is the foundation of the Eagles run game. Gainwell is at 3.7 YPC.

It’s a shame Rachaad White is so mid. His volume is impressive.

RBs with 70%+ Snaps in all three games:
• Josh Jacobs
• Rachaad White
• James Conner
• Alex Mattison

RBs in on over 60% of Team Pass Plays:
• Christian McCaffrey
• Bijan Robinson
• Rachaad White
• Kyren Williams

We expect some increased production 👇️ 

Most carries without a rushing TD:
• Josh Jacobs (45)
• James Cook (44)
• Bijan Robinson (39)
• Alex Mattison (38)
• Javonte Williams (36)

Most catches without a receiving TD:
• Puka Nacua (30)
• Ja’Marr Chase (22)
• Chris Olave (22)
• Zay Flowers (21)
• AJ Brown (20)

💧 The drop list. (1) Dalton Schultz has been targeted on 13 percent of his routes and has a 0.48 yards per route run. (2) Gerald Everett is splitting routes (39% share) with Donald Parham (34%), even with Mike Williams out.

📉 We’re slightly lowering Adams and Meyers this week. The Chargers allow the 3rd-most passing FP per dropback, making this a potential spike week for the Raiders passing game. As good as Aidan O’Connell might be, preseason is different. Just ask Kenny “Preseason” Pickett.

QUICK SLANTS

Don’t Gibb Up On Jahmyr

📖 Read Stop freaking out about Jahmyr Gibbs, an exceptional article by Noah Hills.

“Gibbs is right on schedule for how we should expect a highly-drafted, dual-threat running back to be used early on in his career, and I even agree that the Lions could (and probably should) be doing more with him, especially in the passing game (because he’s looked good, which should further encourage you as a fantasy owner).”

The usage of similar RBs through four games 👇️ 

“There’s room to grow here, and the rookie seasons of guys like Kamara and David Johnson show us that light early-season usage (even from non-first rounders) can grow into league-winning second halves in fantasy. In other words: chill out.”

📖 Read Week 4 Expert Ranking vs Consensus by the Staff at Fantasy Life. One player they are lower on: Joe Mixon.

“The Titans give up the fifth-fewest rushing yards per game (69) [nice] and the third-most yards per game through the air. Expect the strength of the Bengals offense—the passing attack—to dominate yardage in Week 4.”

📖 Read Week 4 Rest of Season Trade Value by Ryan Heath of Fantasy Points.

CeeDee Lamb drops to 13th overall: “I’d hoped for a bigger day from Lamb during Dallas’ first loss of the season, in which Dak Prescott dropped back 45 times. The Cowboys stand at a -3.7% pass rate over expectation (6th-lowest), so he’ll need to take advantage of his time in negative game scripts.”

Justin Herbert climbs 12 spots: “Herbert is averaging 24.1 FPG (QB2) despite losing the 2nd-most fantasy points to DPIs of any QB. He’s losing Mike Williams, but will soon get back another short-area target in Austin Ekeler, and I trust Kellen Moore to get Quentin Johnston (who has run just a 26.9% route share thus far) more involved if he can step in as the vertical threat this team now needs.”

🎙️Listen to the Week 4 Sleepers episode of the Late Round Podcast.

On Tyler Boyd: “Titans don’t have a good pass defense… I don’t usually love Tyler Boyd in fantasy football, but he does have a 17% target share on the season and he’s run a route on at least 86% of Joe Burrow’s drop backs in every game. This matchup is good for the Bengals passing attack.”

Creator of the Day

Matt Harmon

In this series, we highlight the best people in the fantasy football industry.

Matt Harmon (@MattHarmon_BYB) is the fantasy football legend who runs Reception Perception and has a fascinating story. From struggling with depression to building one of the industry's most unique tools to hosting a podcast with the Austin Ekeler, his story inspires many (us included).

Matt broke into the industry while building Backyard Banter in 2012. He spent most of his time learning the game of football; watching coaching and film breakdowns while reading everything. His All-22 film reviews took off, which landed him a gig with Footballguys. Matt credits early acceptance and mentorship from Joe Bryant (@Football_Guys) and @SigmundBloom as invaluable to his success.

Finding “who is good before they are good”. What truly put Matt on the map was Reception Perception (the iconic success by route tree). He uses unique charting data like route percentage, success rate vs. coverage scores, and alignment info to understand how a player performs beyond the box score.

Matt recently charted Tank Dell:

• 83rd percentile success rate vs. press in college which helps him translate to being almost purely outside in the NFL

• 71.4% success rate vs. man as starter against the Colts and Jags

• Shines on critical, big-boy intermediate routes

• Works the boundary targets well and looks ready to debunk all kinds of small WR stereotypes 📈 

Week 4 Viewer’s Guide

Matt also hosts the Yahoo Fantasy Football podcast five days a week during the season. It's a phenomenal show you need to add to your rotation.

And read his free weekly Viewer’s Guide that provides a ton of key data. Nuggets for Week 4:

• Josh Downs has a 20% share of first-read targets in Indy. He’s a blooming option for PPR leagues and is only second to Pittman.

• Sam Howell leads the league in turnover-worthy pass rate, ranks third in pressures converted to sacks and 34th in net yards per attempt. Faces the Eagles D-line this weekend.

• Justin Jefferson, Osborn, Hockenson and Addison all sit within the top 16 in routes run amongst the entire NFL. All are great weekly options with their volume and lack of volatility.

• DJ Moore is tied for Cole Kmet in target share at 15.9%, one reason the Bears have been a disaster. Great to see zero concerted effort to feed their star WR.

‘Content Creators do a disservice when they talk fantasy that is not rooted in a deep understanding of how actual football works.’

Matt’s approach is rooted in the actual game of football. Of scouting talented WRs and profiling roles and QBs that mesh with their skills, which is critical to projecting players. Matt is one of the best in the business. But you already know that.

Tweet of the Day

Per Schefty, betting on non-NFL sports from the workplace now will lead to this discipline:

1. First violation – two game suspension without pay

2. Second violation – six game suspension without pay

3. Third violation – suspension without pay for at least one year

No matter how many calls I get from Ryan Poles, I’ll never play in the NFL with these rules.

Bills Mafia: we are hosting a live, one-day-only bestball draft outside Ralph Wilson/Highmark Stadium today. We’ll be rolling this out at a few other NFL tailgates soon - if you’d like to host your own as a Morning Huddle Ambassador, respond to this email letting us know your hometown team!

Good luck in Week 4.

- Jake, Eddie, Marcus & Matt

And remember: if the Broncos or Bears can get a win today, you can too.