Good morning. Do you ever feel like life is passing you by? Time to pull a Baker Mayfield and turn this ship around. Baker completed one of the most impressive comebacks I've ever seen. Just look at this chart:

"How can I parlay this into more Progressive ads?" - Baker Mayfield.

“I knew Baker would lead a 98 yard drive with no timeouts to win the game after only having 48 hours to learn the offense.” -Lebron (probably).

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STARTS & SITS

The case for...

With insights from @SportMDAnalysis, Renee Miller, Matthew Berry, Jake Ciely & more.

Starting Jaylen Waddle - Most mild low ankles don't cause missed games or performance dips for WRs. Start with confidence.

Sitting Jeff Wilson, who led the Dolphins backfield in each of his first three games, and had seemingly become the clear-cut No. 1 option, per FantasyLife's Dwain McFarland. However, Wilson came back to earth in W14 with a 37% snap share and only 11% of the rushing attempts, while Raheem Mostert led Dolphins RBs in every meaningful utilization category, including short-yardage situations and passing downs.

Stashing Jordan Mason. Mason was the only 49ers RB not dating Olivia Culpo who saw RB work in W13. Who knows what Kyle Shanahan will do, but Jordan Mason is worth stashing for the 49ers rushing upside alone.

Starting Deebo Samuel. Week 13 was weaker than normal for Deebo, but somewhat expected 1 wk after quad contusion. Look for rapid improvements Wk 14-15.

Sitting Mike Williams - Expect to play w/o restrictions. We're reluctant to start him yet. These injuries tend to cause 1-2 game stats dips upon return.

Starting David Njoku - Trending up big time. Return from knee sprains doesn't hurt TE stats + he's near end of high ankle recovery window + Deshaun Watson can't be worse?

Starting George Kittle against the Buccaneers. Yes, new 49ers QB Brock Purdy was heavily focused on his WRs in the win over Miami, targeting Kittle only three times. But, per The Athletic's Renee Miller, the bright spot in an otherwise formidable Buccaneers defense is their weakness to TEs. They give up the 4th-most fantasy points to the position, so we could see a high-end game from Kittle this week.

Starting Adam Thielen against the Lions. Since firing defensive backs coach Aubrey Pleasant after Week 8, the Lions have been a major slot funnel, allowing the 4th-most schedule-adjusted FPG to opposing slot WRs (+6.0 FPG). Maybe we should consider this an underrated spot for Adam Thielen, all per Jake Tribbey.

• Thielen has caught just 3 TDs but has 4.50 expected receiving TDs in 2022, positive regression time.

Starting D’Onta Foreman against Seattle. In four games with 15+ carries, Foreman put up 118, 118, 130 and 113 rushing yards, per The Athletic's Jake Ciely, and the Seahawks can’t stop the run — remember Josh Jacobs in Week 12? Foreman isn’t just a possible start, he’s a must-start in Week 14.

CONTENT

Best Reads of the Day

Highlights from FantasyPoints.com's Jake Tribbey's Week 14 DFS Study Hall:

The targets haven’t been there lately, but Dawson Knox posted his best route share of the season (86%) in Week 13. It was the 3rd-highest route share by any TE last week and an encouraging sign for Knox’s upside as we head into the final stretch of the season.

Garrett Wilson is averaging a 27.7% target share and is the WR1 in Expected Fantasy Points with Mike White at QB. Wilson, in three of his last four games, has received a +25% target share and +30% air yards share. The Jets fantasy playoff schedule might be the best in the league:

• Week 15: vs DET

• Week 16: vs JAX

• Week 17: @ SEA

Christian Watson joins elite company. Per Field Yates, Watson is one of only three rookie WRs in the Super Bowl era to score seven receiving touchdowns in a four-game span. The other two wide receivers are Odell Beckham Jr. and Randy Moss. And Watson has the easiest WR schedule in the fantasy playoffs. LEAGUE. WINNER.

Jakobi Meyers is expected to miss W14 with a concussion, while Kadarius Toney remains out (hamstring).

Cole Kmet breakout season continues. In his last five games, Kmet is the:

• TE2 in Target Share (26.5 percent)

• TE6 in Air Yards Share (26.8 percent)

• TE8 in Expected Fantasy Points (8.8)

• TE3 in Half-PPR points (12.1)

To put Kmet's fantasy production into perspective, the only tight ends who averaged more half-PPR points per game in that timespan are Travis Kelce and Dallas Goedert, per Marvin Elequin. The Bears are passing more, great news for Kmet holders.

From Scott Barrett's Usage Report on FantasyPoints:

The 49ers offensive line often invites QB Brock Purdy to their semi-regular poker games. More often than not, he says 'No, I've got to study.' Great article on the 49ers starting QB by Nick Wagoner.

Zonovan Knight is "not going anywhere". Jets HC Robert Saleh says BAM! will retain his role even when Michael Carter returns.

Tyler Lockett continues to be one of the most underrated wide receivers in the league. Through 12 games, he is currently on pace to exceed 1,000 scrimmage yards for the fifth straight season. The Seahawks have a favorable schedule facing three teams that rank in the bottom 12 in fantasy points allowed to wide receivers, per Yahoo's Week 14 Analysis: Why you should keep D'Andre Swift locked into playoff lineups.

James Cook, who finished ahead of Devin Singletary in Expected Fantasy Points (xFP) with 16.2 this past week. Week 13 would be the first time Cook operated as the Bills’ RB1 while they were still in a neutral game script. Assuming he can retain this role, he should be a startable RB2 heading into the fantasy playoffs, per Fantasy Footballers Dynasty Report for Week 14.

Dak Prescott has had multiple pass attempts stopped short of the goal line that ended in a Zeke/Pollard rushing TD. @FF_MarvinE was curious, who leads the league in that stat?

"Stolen" Passing TDs within 3 yds of the goal line:

QUICK SLANTS

• “If they made a 30 for 30 on Geno Smith” great (video)

• @MattHarmon_BYB sat down with CeeDee Lamb this week to talk about how he's thrived playing multiple WR positions, why he likes playing the slot & more (video)

• The best Adjusted Trade Value Chart - Week 14. Biggest risers include Dalvin Cook (+10), James Conner (+9) and D'Andre Swift (+8).

• If the Jets beat the Bills on Sunday, it would be the first time in 21 seasons that a team swept a division opponent despite being underdogs of 9+ points in both games. The last time it happened? 2001, when NE beat IND in Tom Brady's first start.

• PFF's Power Rankings: The Cincinnati Bengals make their push, Kansas City Chiefs remain at No. 1.

Thanks for joining us this morning. See you in the playoffs.

Jake, Eddie, & Matt

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