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- 🏈 Marvin Harrison Jr. & WR Rankings
🏈 Marvin Harrison Jr. & WR Rankings
Previewing the WR and TE prospects you need to know
Good morning. It’s almost the 2024 NFL Draft, which is like a live fantasy football draft for highly paid (often incompetent) professionals.
It’s a time of hope, with disappointment sure to follow (after your first-round QB is selling insurance after three years). Yes, I’m a Browns fan. We haven’t had the best of luck with these things. Let’s get to your WR and TE fantasy preview for this draft class.
Today's newsletter highlights:
🔥 A strong WR class, not as deep as expected?
👀 The best TE prospect since Kyle Pitts
📰 Aiyuk on the move?!
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PROSPECT PREVIEW
The Big Three
It’s in his blood // John Bazemore, AP Photo
1. Marvin Harrison Jr., Ohio State
Draft Projection: Arizona at 4.
NFL Comp: “Like if Marvin Harrison Sr. had a really tall son” - The Ringer’s Danny Kelly
Pros: The son of an NFL Hall of Famer, Maserati Marv is the most hyped WR prospect of the last decade.
Most top-tier performers in the NFL dominate against man coverage, and Harrison’s 39% targets per route run against man is the highest career mark from any Ohio State WR ever (against players like Garrett Wilson, Olave, McLaurin...). Harrison runs every route and wins at every level.
Cons: Harrison wasn’t elite after the catch, averaging -0.2 yards per reception below expectation. So while he can get open all over the field, he will rarely create a big play off a shallow target.
Year 1: If he goes to Arizona as expected, Harrison would instantly become the team’s WR1 and Kyler Murray’s go-to guy, leading to a potential top-10 fantasy WR season (FantasyPros’ Derek Brown agrees).
2. Malik Nabers, LSU
Draft Projection: 5th to the Chargers.
NFL Comp: DJ Moore when he has a competent QB
Pros: While Harrison Jr. may be the best all around WR in the class, Malik Nabers is the most explosive.
He had at least one catch of 20+ yards in all 12 regular-season games in 2023 and 78.7% of his catches resulted in a first down or TD (per The Beast). His 0.31 missed tackles forced per reception ranks among the 99th percentile of WR prospects since 2019, making him the most elusive WR prospect in recent memory.
Cons: If we are nitpicking, he could be outmuscled by stronger DBs.
Year 1: Even if he ends up in a run-heavy offense like the Chargers, Nabers can take any play to the house and should make an immediate fantasy impact as a rookie. Top-12 season is in play.
3. Rome Odunze, Washington
Draft Projection: Top 10
NFL Comp: Off-brand Davante Adams, but in a bigger body
Pros: Odunze is a beast. At 6’3” 212 lbs, he routinely overpowers opponents. Per Scott Barrett, Odunze converted an unreal 21 of 28 contested targets into receptions last year (75.0%) — the highest mark by any Power 5 WR since 2014, and well ahead of Drake London’s impressive 65.4% in 2021.
But he doesn’t just make contested catches… Odunze’s also an elite separator, becoming the first ever all-green prospect per Matt Harmon’s Reception Perception:
Cons: An excellent route runner, Odunze’s elusiveness after the catch is considered “mediocre” by NFL standards. At worst, he could be an average possession receiver with limited YAC-ability.
But with his well-rounded skillset, he’s virtually landing spot-proof, as he should excel in any scheme and at any spot on the field.
Year 1: If he lands with the Giants (6), Bears (9) or any other team, he’ll immediately produce. Of course, the preference is a WR1 opportunity like New York.
The Other Guys to Know
Brian Thomas Jr. (LSU) is a massive target (6’3” 209 lbs) with elite speed (4.33). He led college football with 17 TD receptions in 13 games — the most since DeVonta Smith’s 23 TDs in 2020. But his one-year wonder status puts him in some bad company…
Troy Franklin (Oregon) is a taller version of me (6’2” 176 lbs), but posted an impressive 2.45 yards per route run versus press coverage in his career — a better mark than Odunze (2.34) and Nabers (2.23). He also averaged 5.10 yards per route run against single coverage, the 4th highest for a prospect since 2019 — behind only DeVonta Smith, Tee Higgins, and Ja’Marr Chase (per PFF). He’s a sneaky-strong fantasy sleeper.
Ladd McConkey (Georgia) has dealt with injuries, but he could be a PPR monster out of the slot, as his 75.3% catch rate is 3rd highest since 2017, behind only Cooper Kupp and DeVonta Smith. And he’s fair-skinned, so:
He’s more than just a “sneaky athletic” slot receiver, though. He ranked 5th-best in career first downs or TDs per target since 2016, behind only Ja’Marr Chase, CeeDee Lamb, DeVonta Smith, and Chris Olave (per Scott Barrett), which shows teams trust him when it matters.Adonai Mitchell (Texas) has all the tools to be a superstar, but his 1.68 yards per route run put him in bust territory — out of the 54 WR prospects with sub-2.00 career YPRR figures out of college since 2019, only Terry McLaurin (1.57), Hunter Renfrow (1.51) and D.K. Metcalf (1.84) have emerged as top-30 PPR WRs in a season (per PFF).
Xavier Worthy (Texas) ran the fastest 40-yard dash ever (4.21), drawing comps to former 1st round bust, John Ross. But he isn’t another Ross… Worthy leads all of the projected top-25 Power 5 WRs in this class in YAC per reception after removing screens. His style of play is more comparable to Zay Flowers, who finished 4th in yards among last year’s rookie WRs:
Now, time to review Brock Bowers and the TE class.
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